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FDM - Freedom Oil and Gas

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Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

I was wrong about an anticipated fall from what I saw as a parabolic move back in Feb, however my view hasn't changed much.

They did a cap raising of 30million shares @ 60c ($18mil), currently all those shares issued to 'institutional/sophisticated' investors are in profit well over 50%, assuming these 'sophisticated investors' sell the entire 30mil they could collectively net a nice ~$9million+ profit for potentially under a months work!

Some may think they'll be holding onto these as investments for the future and maybe some will, I on the other hand think the profit motive of flipping them and netting a quick and easy 50%+ will be much more tempting, especially if after they've finished selling the price falls back down toward placement level or lower and traps and potentially forces the selling hand of the many additional 'investors' that have bought into a company that was 22c less than 3 months ago.

Quite possibly I'll be wrong but something to think about.
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

It's a challenge trying to work out a "fair value" for MAD. In hindsight at 22c it was very underpriced so the revaluing to probably the mid 50's range was reasonable.

At $1.00 it seems currently overpriced. But this doesn't take into account the potential increases in reserves with the new acquisitions, the steadily increasing production from current drills and then a sharper increase in production as the new rigs swing into action. Lets remember these guys seem to bring a well into production within 6 weeks with very cheap establishment costs. The process has been well proved - it's not a hypothetical.

In that context it may well be that the $1 per share value will look good within 6 months. If enough of the investors accept this analysis there may not be any significant selldown or at least there will be sufficient new investors to support the price. Anyway I just can't see it's fundamental value falling within the forseeable future
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration


Over 150 million shares have changed hands since the cap raising so maybe they already have.
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

I think the little flurry on MAD today was due to the RBS wrap on the company. They would have many private investors on their books who seem to have followed the advice.


http://centralcoast.businessinsider.net.au/stories/financial/market-outlook

But just for interest did anyone else pick up the connection between RBS and MAD ? Roger Clarke is Chairman of the Advisory Board of RBS Morgans as well as Vice Chairman of MAD...

http://investing.businessweek.com/r...Id=9935476&previousTitle=TISSUE THERAPIES LTD
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

It's a challenge trying to work out a "fair value" for MAD. In hindsight at 22c it was very underpriced so the revaluing to probably the mid 50's range was reasonable.
Click to expand...

Not just in hindsight!

For several monhs now its been known that MAD was the cheapest oily on the ASX lists on a 2P Reserve basis, by a big margin. The problem was whether and when production would increase to fully reflect this value.

May be a somewhat different proposition at $1 though.
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

tech/a said:
Tomorrow will tell
But I expect at best an inside day.
At worst a nasty reversal.
On average--lower than $1

Not on my list to buy again
Click to expand...

Best scenario so far.
Low volume will indicate a continuation.
High Volume likely capitulation.
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

ive been watching this sucker since it was .38c.....always thinking it would drop so never buying...what a dill!!
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

mrlister said:
ive been watching this sucker since it was .38c.....always thinking it would drop so never buying...what a dill!!
Click to expand...

I traded a bit in the 60-80c range. Always waiting for it to drop as well.

Thinking the same thing!

The thing is they do a lot of presentations to brokers and around the US. If you really researched the dates, would've been easy trades.
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

mrlister said:
ive been watching this sucker since it was .38c.....always thinking it would drop so never buying...what a dill!!
Click to expand...

In the markets there will always be other times.

A few years ago I purchased a book called "Trend following" by Michael Covel. It has gradually turned my life around from what was a bad start.

I also purchased MAD which is on a trend that, in my (humble) view, and having studied its business model, will continue.

Volume stable against other recent good days Tech. I see next target and resistance at around $1.35 in a week or so. Just going by its own individual behaviour on the daily chart of the last two and a half months.
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration


Yep I've read trend following and turtle trading. Trend following definitely helps looking into.. especially with sideways trending stocks suddenly turning and trending.
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

Well plenty of strength here.
Making new highs on average volume.
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

mrlister said:
ive been watching this sucker since it was .38c.....always thinking it would drop so never buying...what a dill!!
Click to expand...


I had a holding in it, at around 20c and sold it at around 23c (out of impatience, sigh) literally a few weeks before it exploded. It's been hard to get over it.
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

Sold into the run today after yesterdays jump - was not able to check charts, so after seeing it building this morning thought I would put an optimistic sell order in in case of a pop. Which came through, not sure about the bar though as it came off highs at the end of the day on relatively large volume, so may not see great gains again tomorrow, but this is MAD and I will try and watch for positive action.

Although I may miss out on further moves I have found recently that selling on significant up moves is more rewarding than holding for continuations, may be the stocks I have been in recently though.
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

It will be interesting to see what the first reserve figures are for Boling Dome and Nash Dome. And the belief that MAD can establish around 150 wells a year with the upgraded gear is a powerful thought. Lets say 100 extra wells at an average of 40 boe/d . That's 4000 boe/d on top of the current production.

The current run however seems surreal.

_____________________________________________________

Up to $1.21 and demand is still running at 8 to 1 !. Perhaps there are some shorters trying to cover their positions. Or the rough analysis I have done is close to the truth.
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

Ouch
Never sell a winning position without good reason.
Clawing not a good look!
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

There still going "Mad" out there. Another big trade/big rise day.

It will be fascinating to see what the reserve upgrades look like in a few weeks because at the current price MAD looks very pricey. Of course they might also have struck gold in one of their drills...
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

Excellent pivot day
In $1.26
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

tech/a said:
Excellent pivot day
In $1.26
Click to expand...

What do you mean by "pivot day " T/A ?

Interested that you are jumping in at this price when I thought that earlier on you believed it was overpriced. Would you like to share your rationale ?
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

Ill post a chart tonight.

I never use words like Over priced.
On Supply and demand.
I saw/see a drying up of supply.
I see a low risk entry.
Pivot is misleading as it isnt strictly a pivot.
I see the days action as pivotal though.
(As in turning).
If I see opportunity then Ill take it.

Ill put it all on the chart.
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

Lets see what happens after easter with MAD. Certainly can't wait to see the reserves statement. !
 
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