CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
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Re: Facebook IPO
found support at 40, then 38...:goodnight
found support at 40, then 38...:goodnight
found support at 40, then 38...:goodnight
FuturesTrader71 @FuturesTrader71
Facebook shares begin quoting. Showing $55
FuturesTrader71 @FuturesTrader71
$45 now LOL
FuturesTrader71 @FuturesTrader71
Sell them in Germany at $70 and buy them in USA for $55
Fari Hamzei @HamzeiAnalytics
$FB .... what a drama, reminds me of some of the traders here on the Streams -- spare us -- just let the darn thing trade
Facebook is now officially a publically trade company. Shares have traded on secondary markets for several years, but those markets have strict rules with regards to who can invest. Now, anyone can buy a couple shares. Many were hoping FB would bring some excitement to Wall St. - or at least allow people to forget about Europe for a day. It wasn't to be. FB priced their shares at 38 bucks, and the stock closed at 38.23. Many consider this an utter failure. I don't, and here's why. Most companies that go public have little or no say in anything. The investment bank they hire tells them how much to raise, what the valuation should be, how many shares to sell and what the price range of the shares will be on opening day. Because of this, the investment banks often under price new offerings a little so their large clients can make some easy money. That's what happened to LinkedIn. The shares were grossly under priced, so the company didn't make nearly as much as they could have. Facebook is an entirely different story. The company was so desireable, they got to call the shots, they got to decide and dictate everything. They decided how many shares they were to sell and for how much. They even dictated the fee they were willing to pay to the investment banks. Because of this, FB priced their offering as close to perfection as they could. Instead of the investment banks and their clients making money, FB raised as much money as they possibly could have. They priced their offering perfectly. If they would have priced the offering at the top end of their initial range ($34), then Friday's close above $38 would look like a nice pop on the first day. Instead they priced the offering at $38 to squeeze every penny out they could. The only ones to suffer in such a situation are the investment banks and their buddies. Kudos to FB for doing what so many other public companies wish they could have done.
Oops... down 8% to $35.
Like!
Facebook is so mainstream that you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who hasn't at least heard of it. And more to the point, if someone is ever going to get a Facebook account then the odds are they've already done it.
Looking at my own usage and that of friends, I'd say that the novelty is wearing off. I log in once a day, but these days there's really only a few people actually posting anything at all. The rest have become passive, very occasional users.
It's a craze just like the many other crazes that have come and gone over the years. It's only a matter of time until someone comes up with something better, and then that's it.
Remember Myspace? Does anyone apart from actual musicians still use it? A quick check of my friends finds that most accounts are still there but simply stopped being updated quite some time ago when that craze ended.
It might be something to speculate on, but it's not a "bottom drawer" investment in my opinion. According to stats on Alexa.com about 45% of internet users are using Facebook with virtually no growth since the 3rd quarter of 2011 when a steady uptrend came to a halt.
That compares to Myspace with just 0.76% of people now using it, and Twitter which looks to have peaked at about 11% (now in a downtrend) around the same time as Facebook's growth ended.
Great time to milk some equity out of it then. That's how I've always looked at the float, rather than a growth story.
Masterstroke.
Facebook is so mainstream that you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who hasn't at least heard of it. And more to the point, if someone is ever going to get a Facebook account then the odds are they've already done it.
notting said:It's not a fad, it's a huge market.
You just have to be the best at keeping it and morphing into the medium that it instinctively wants to channel through.
It's going to be a cracking buy at some point.
Whatever you thought of MS was irrelevant, you still had to use their product.
Not so with Apple yet they seem to do well simply by amazing marketing of average-good products.
It's not a fad, it's a huge market.
You just have to be the best at keeping it and morphing into the medium that it instinctively wants to channel through.
It's going to be a cracking buy at some point.
They may disappoint analists whilst trying to make the revenue work, but with all the brains now able to be invested and Zucker still controlling the votes who's gonna do anything other than act like they care?
A market that is yet to be shown that it can be monetised.
FB has been exaggeratedly overvalued. A lot of people who bought in at its opening price are going to have their patience tested, I guarantee you.
Exactly. There are very low barrier to entry in this field and the "corporate" nature of Facebook these days is in itself a disadvantage in the eyes of some.The argument about MySpace doesn't hold because they all went to Facebook! The fad didn't fade it increased and migrated.
Besides Who wants to be Murdoch's bitch?
So that's my impression, as a non-user. Is the reality much different?
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