This is a mobile optimized page that loads fast, if you want to load the real page, click this text.

Expected returns from a TA system

Jump to new

Synergy

Joined
26 February 2007
Posts
358
Reactions
0
Just wondering what sort of returns i should be looking to achieve from a short term (say a 7 day hold avg) end of day based TA trading system.

What sort of returns are others getting? Is 50% PA a reasonable goal to set in current market conditions or should i be looking for higher?

I have a system that is starting to look promising, but I have nothing to compare to...
 
Anywhere between -100% to +1000%
 
fantastic! I'm within the expected range...

I know theres no answer but i'd like to get an idea of what other people are getting from their systems.

Cheers
 
Waynes basically right.
But I'll see if I cant be a little more accurate.
So lets say we are not interested in those that make a loss.

Short term systems I have seen that produce profit,range from
20% to 80% P/A

Long term generally fall in the 20-35% but have seen 45%.P/A.

Combine these returns with COMPOUNDING OF PROFITS into Capital
PYRAMIDING into successful trades,and LEVERAGE and these figures relative to initial capital go through the roof.

With the system I have on the net Techtrader

http://www.thechartist.com.au/forum/ubbthreads.php?ubb=postlist&Board=53&page=1

Since inception 4.5 yrs ago the return on INITIAL Capital ($30,000) is around 1000%.

So medioucre methodologies can return fabulous profit.Most attempt to design and trade a 1000% return method---YOU DONT HAVE TOO.

When return over 4.5 yrs could be 26% or 1000% you should quickly see that the REAL profits arent in the System OR the Analysis/Methodology used.

So where do most spend their efforts---YOU GUESSED IT at the 26% end!!
 
You haven't told us anything about the kind of drawdowns you'll be prepared to take, nor the kind of risk per trade, or anything. This is absolutely critical when designed a system.
 
Arturius

I guess this is directed at Nick.
I'm sure he has the figures.
As I mentioned my published method above as well all is disclosed on the site.

I certainly agree with you.

With mine from memory
Initial drawdown was around 12%
Maximum Peak To Valley drawdown over the test period 22% ish.
Over the 4.5 yrs of trading all has performed within these boundaries.
Montecarlo analysis will of course give you a broad spectrum of expected D/D over as many portfolios you wish to test.
I used 50,000 for my design parameter.

Risk is 1% of total capital.
Maximum string of losses can also have a bearing.
From memory again I think mine was 12---in realtime trading I think the max string has been 5 or 6

R/Ratrio is also important.
Being a longterm method (techtrader) I look for 25-35% success rate and the R/R is around 8-12:1 (from Montecarlo results).
Shorter term methods are generally more successful with win rate but less R/R.
 
Actually directed at the OP, heh. Novices think in terms of % gain only. Experts think about the spectrum; timeframes, drawdowns, capital risk, market change risk, diversification strategy.
 
Arturius said:
Actually directed at the OP, heh. Novices think in terms of % gain only. Experts think about the spectrum; timeframes, drawdowns, capital risk, market change risk, diversification strategy.
Click to expand...

:bonk: OOOPs...I don't think you could consider Nick a novice... don't judge a book by its cover... unless it's Adaptive Analysis of course...
 
tech, kauri,

I'm pretty sure OP refers to original poster(or something like that), meaning Synergy, not Nick.
 
tech/a said:
Being a longterm method (techtrader) I look for 25-35% success rate and the R/R is around 8-12:1 (from Montecarlo results).
Shorter term methods are generally more successful with win rate but less R/R.
Click to expand...

R/R of 8-12:1 ??
Tech your a MACHINE.

Congrats on reaching this elite level.

Its unheard of for me. Iv seen nothing even close.

Your "the man"
 
nizar said:
R/R of 8-12:1 ??
Tech your a MACHINE.

Congrats on reaching this elite level.

Its unheard of for me. Iv seen nothing even close.

Your "the man"
Click to expand...

Get off your knees Nizar, your embarrassing yourself.
 
Agree Prof.

Nizar.
The point is that if this builder can do it---then anyone can do the same.
You dont have to be a Radge with 15 yrs industry experience.

Just the same passion you have.
 
tech/a said:
Agree Prof.

Nizar.
The point is that if this builder can do it---then anyone can do the same.
You dont have to be a Radge with 15 yrs industry experience.

Just the same passion you have.
Click to expand...

Acually I hold the belief that 1 year with the right attitude, direction, help and specific texts, one can be profitable and move on to the professional aspect of trading.
 
Prof, Snake.
I give credit where credit is due

And Snake -- as always, thanks for your constructive "wisdom"
 
Arturius said:
You haven't told us anything about the kind of drawdowns you'll be prepared to take, nor the kind of risk per trade, or anything. This is absolutely critical when designed a system.
Click to expand...

Admittedly I'm a novice and I don't really have much much of an idea about TA. In short i've played around with some past data in excel and developped a system that looks ok. Havn't traded it yet, but I at least feel comfortable having a go with it.

As for risk, i'm planning on trading with 10% of total capital/trade and have an initial stop at a 10% loss. so 1%/trade.

The system picks enough trades to be trading with 100% of capital 100% of the time. win/loss is around 50/50. avg hold time is 7 days and avg gain looks to be around 3% per trade. But on a big down note, I only have around 2.5 years test data, so i'm worried about that.

Knowing not very much about this, i'm pretty happy with what i have on paper, but didn't have anything to compare to.

Any help most welcome
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

D
Adventures in AI
2 3
Replies
43
Views
7K
mullokintyre
Retirement-Semi Retirement, (Tech/a personal study) implementation and discussion
2 3
Replies
52
Views
6K
tech/a
  • Article
Bullish Signals Emerge: Market Liquidity Set to Flow into the Crypto Web3 Space
Replies
2
Views
1K
Dona Ferentes
September 2024 DDD
2 3 4
Replies
66
Views
10K
qldfrog
February 2025
2 3 4
Replies
61
Views
6K
ducati916
Menu
Log in
Register
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more...