ETW - Evans & Tate

[TheAnalyst]

Hi I am new to this forum and was wondering if anyone has any clear ideas on the huge drop in ETW's share price.

There apparrently does not seem any reason and at the current price the yield is 15%

 

[TjamesX]

Re: ETW Evans & Tate

Have a look at the announcement they released to the market yesterday.

They were answering to speculation that the company has appointed administrators - anytime companies have to respond to that type of acusation... is not good.

TJ

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: ETW Evans & Tate

yer...i seen that announcement...that means if things are just running as normal and the profit forecasts are still unchanged you have one extremely oversold, high yielding stock

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: ETW Evans & Tate

I know nothing about this company but when things like that are going on, be careful. They haven't appointed administrators - that's good PROVIDED THAT the word "yet" doesn't belong in that sentence.

I'd be doing some thorough research into the company and its finances or staying away. Or at the very least choose your position size on the basis that it's possible you could lose 100% in the worst case - don't count on a stop loss being of any value if it suddenly gets suspended / delisted.

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: ETW Evans & Tate

Thx ...Smurf...i did a bit more research today and things arn't as bad as they may seem on the surface...if the debt is choking profit and affecting risk pricing..it is very early for the company to start looking at other options, such as raising more capital...a bit like the Freedom Furniture story..as ETW has really grown fast and hasnt let the finance section catch up.

I have done a rough WACC which also gives the debt to equity ratios...and they still dont look like they have yet reached crisis...but the company and its bank has done the right thing and jumped early.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital 30/6/2005

Value$ Proportion% Cost% Weighted
Debentures 10391897.88 0.12 6.76 0.84
Loan 23846000 0.28 8.5 2.42
Preference Shares 12779886.55 0.15 7.75 1.18
Ord Shares 36898524 0.44 8 3.52
Total 83916308.43 WACC 7.95

Now I warn people these are only rough and they have been calculated on todays closing prices....I donot advise anyone to follow my opinions but get advise else where not from me...i post this just to add a bit of interest to the forum

 

[TjamesX]

Re: ETW Evans & Tate

ETW are in a currently in a trading halt, pending an announcement by the company at end of the day.

explanation as to the dramatic price drop likely

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: ETW Evans & Tate

Raise equity and or give the current holders of converting preference shares the option to convert immediately to equity....this would well insulate the company and sort out the debt to equity ratio and cause a market out perform.








This is my opinion only it is not information for any one to rely on or use.

 

[TheAnalyst]

Evans & Tate ETW

Would like to hear any bodies comments, opinions, fundamental analysis and charting analysis on Evans & Tate ETW.

 

[bailej03]

Re: ETW Evans & Tate

You still holding these? I did a quick trade in 27th out 29th June, made me good money then. Certainly oversold at that stage and got a big media beat up in WA.

Not sure now though. Future average a best, ANZ staying put by the sound of things but could pull the plug if they think wine sale getting any worst.

Very risky atm. Being sold down for a reason this time? or another over-reaction? Either way, its going to be a long time out of the woods for this one and other companies out their offer better prospects both short and long term imho.

 

[TheAnalyst]

Been looking at ETW again and considering the wine sector as a whole and looking like this stock may have finally found its bottom.

Any chartist with a technical overview???

 

[surelle]

Hi Analyst
Spoke to the broker (on Friday) that actually recomended ETW to me at float level...
I held on to them when they were still hovering the $1 and then saw them do a nose dive, but didn't get out as I should have.

He 's not confident that they'll be a round for much longer. doesn't sound encouraging...

 

[Nick Radge]

"The trend is your friend until it bends, then it ends"

This trend ain't bending.

 

[TheAnalyst]

"The trend is your friend until it bends, then it ends"

This trend ain't bending.

thx nick

 

[123enen]

The company has debts of $115 Million .
Its equity is only around $50Million.
This company will never find a white knight to rescue it even though its market cap. is only $20 Million.
The ANZ bank is doing all it can to putting it’s own management consultants in charge ( ETW pay the management bill ) but too little too late.
One big bad debt coming up for ANZ.

 

[TheAnalyst]

I think the last time i looked its NTA per share was 42 cents and they have good markets and growing to sell products and high quality assets as well. The glut and having the owner become ceo was not a good idea and history says never has been.

 

[TheAnalyst]

Well i think the judges have landed their hammers and the verdict is they are doomed.

 

[pch]

I have been looking the ETWPB converting preference share at present and given a minimum 2 for 1 conversion to ETW stock, I would have assumed that it would still more of less track double the ETW share price.. Right now its the same so by buying it, you are in effect getting ETW for 7.5-8c

Unless you see that ETW will rise back to 50c and above (where the conversion terms change - although I forget the details) , it in fact makes some sense to me to just get ETWPB.

But all of this hinges on this company staying alive. I have been told that their export business is still going pretty well (growing) and they have an okay cashflow. Its the local market downturn along with their debt that is the issue.

Does anybody here feel that they can trade on through this downturn? If they stay alive, there could be a nice upside there come conversion time in 2009?

 

[TheAnalyst]

Looking like the fat lady has sang her song or almost finishing.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...-up-application/2006/05/25/1148518929612.html


Evans & Tate resists wind up application
May 25, 2006 - 11:04AM

West Australian winemaker Evans & Tate says it will "strenuously resist" an application to wind up the company.

Australian Beverage Distributors (ABD) is seeking an originating process to wind up Evans & Tate and its subsidiary Evans & Tate Premium Wines.

ABD and Evans & Tate have been involved in litigation for more than two years in a commercial dispute being heard in the NSW District Court in Newcastle.

"Based on legal advice, Evans & Tate will argue that the latest application by ABD is not in accordance with the Corporations Act, is not supportable, (is) misconceived and without foundation," the winemaker said in a statement.

"This latest application will be strenuously resisted, and Evans & Tate has instructed its lawyers to apply to have it summarily dismissed as an abuse of process.

"This would leave the ongoing commercial dispute to be heart in what Evans & Tate considers the proper forum, the Newcastle District Court."

ABD has also sought a declaration that the notice of meeting of noteholders of Evans & Tate's unsecured convertible notes, scheduled for June 14, is false and misleading.

The meeting will take place to allow noteholders to vote on changing a clause in their notes to overcome an accounting issue caused by the transition to international financial reporting standards (IFRS).

Under the current clause, total liabilities of the company must not exceed 80 per cent of total assets, however the transition to IFRS is expected to see an increase in this ratio to 89 per cent.

In March, Evans & Tate reported a first half net loss of $44.4 million, down from a $3.6 million net profit in the prior corresponding period, with the sharp decline blamed on continuing competitive market conditions and a loss of market share in the United Kingdom.

AAP

 

[suhm]

The inexorable decline of this stock seems to have halted at least for now. Anyone know what's happening, its up over 50% today on fairly large volume.

 

[TheAnalyst]

The inexorable decline of this stock seems to have halted at least for now. Anyone know what's happening, its up over 50% today on fairly large volume.

I heard management started to run a tattslotto entry on behalf of the company on a weeekly basis as it has come to the stage where anything is worth a try and the company won 1st division but the winnings will be an extraordinary item in the accounts.