tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
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There is much thought and discussion on whether this is a return to market equilibrium.
On first glance I tended to agree.
Markets do tend to correct themselves.
However when that which is being corrected is economic recklessness on the part of over imaginative minds creating something from nothing,the resultant equilibrium tends to be well below what most think as an averaging of over bought and oversold.
It falls to where most feel is oversold with no prospect of moving forward until the dynamics are first altered,then changed and finally implemented.
For discussion I'll take the Property "bubble" which runs in tandem with the credit "bubble" or personal debt ratio.In simplistic terms.
Lending institutions created the problem with lax lending criteria.
By their own reaction of now basically halting the availability of credit they are feeding their own demise,with ramifications well beyond the Sub Prime issue.This I'm sure is now broadly recognized.
As Nick Radge has pointed out the flight of the really large players (Countries,Investment Banks etc) to safe/er havens liquidating positions which gave excellent profit in the name of survivor ship
is having a snowball effect on absolutely everything.
Nick pointed out that he has never seen EVERY commodity in the red as they were on Friday.
So my view is that equilibrium may well be a new PARADIGM and I feel wont take the shape of "conventional" expectation,that being that the market at least will return to the before seen growth that has become accepted and expected.
Double digit growth of portfolios will become a thing of the past for a very longtime.
The buy and hold mantra will suffer disappointment and will not solve the issue of wealth creation sought by all.
The way of trading for exceptional profit (>10%) will need to be re invented for those who wish to attain it.Shorter term may well hold some answers.
The same will apply to property in the buy and hold expectation.
Business will become more challenging and perhaps the last bastion of wealth growth for the new generations.
On first glance I tended to agree.
Markets do tend to correct themselves.
However when that which is being corrected is economic recklessness on the part of over imaginative minds creating something from nothing,the resultant equilibrium tends to be well below what most think as an averaging of over bought and oversold.
It falls to where most feel is oversold with no prospect of moving forward until the dynamics are first altered,then changed and finally implemented.
For discussion I'll take the Property "bubble" which runs in tandem with the credit "bubble" or personal debt ratio.In simplistic terms.
Lending institutions created the problem with lax lending criteria.
By their own reaction of now basically halting the availability of credit they are feeding their own demise,with ramifications well beyond the Sub Prime issue.This I'm sure is now broadly recognized.
As Nick Radge has pointed out the flight of the really large players (Countries,Investment Banks etc) to safe/er havens liquidating positions which gave excellent profit in the name of survivor ship
is having a snowball effect on absolutely everything.
Nick pointed out that he has never seen EVERY commodity in the red as they were on Friday.
So my view is that equilibrium may well be a new PARADIGM and I feel wont take the shape of "conventional" expectation,that being that the market at least will return to the before seen growth that has become accepted and expected.
Double digit growth of portfolios will become a thing of the past for a very longtime.
The buy and hold mantra will suffer disappointment and will not solve the issue of wealth creation sought by all.
The way of trading for exceptional profit (>10%) will need to be re invented for those who wish to attain it.Shorter term may well hold some answers.
The same will apply to property in the buy and hold expectation.
Business will become more challenging and perhaps the last bastion of wealth growth for the new generations.
