Elliott Wave - XAO starting wave C?
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Re: Elliot Wave - XAO starting wave C?
My opinion is that the move off the Aug 16 lows has been impulsive and is more than likely not a wave-B. It's either a wave-1 of a new uptrend or a wave-a of a larger running/irregular flat pattern. Either scenario has scope for a pull back toward 5800.
My opinion is that the move off the Aug 16 lows has been impulsive and is more than likely not a wave-B. It's either a wave-1 of a new uptrend or a wave-a of a larger running/irregular flat pattern. Either scenario has scope for a pull back toward 5800.
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Re: Elliot Wave - XAO starting wave C?
Tend to agree with Nicks views here. If the market ends up putting in a marginal false break high to complete wave B( I think a new uptrend would be much lower probability here), then a fast move down might start(strong impulse) as wave C’s are in many cases.
Would expect market to chop around for a while from current levels before perhaps moving to slightly higher recovery levels.
I have 28th September and 5 October as an overlap of a key cycle termination. As such the market may surprise from here and actually “hold up” till that time frame. I don’t think this is the start of a move to new lows yet, I think this will happen later. Time and Pattern are most important
Tend to agree with Nicks views here. If the market ends up putting in a marginal false break high to complete wave B( I think a new uptrend would be much lower probability here), then a fast move down might start(strong impulse) as wave C’s are in many cases.
Would expect market to chop around for a while from current levels before perhaps moving to slightly higher recovery levels.
I have 28th September and 5 October as an overlap of a key cycle termination. As such the market may surprise from here and actually “hold up” till that time frame. I don’t think this is the start of a move to new lows yet, I think this will happen later. Time and Pattern are most important
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Re: Elliot Wave - XAO starting wave C?
Wave-2 or -b should retrace 50.0% to 61.8% of the prior 5-wave advance. I'd say 5800/5900 is more probable. We'll only do a shallow retrace if we enter into some kind of flat but with interest rates pushing through 7% I think the risk is to the deeper zigzag retracement at this stage.
Wave-2 or -b should retrace 50.0% to 61.8% of the prior 5-wave advance. I'd say 5800/5900 is more probable. We'll only do a shallow retrace if we enter into some kind of flat but with interest rates pushing through 7% I think the risk is to the deeper zigzag retracement at this stage.
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Re: Elliot Wave - XAO starting wave C?
I was actually looking at approx 38.2% retrace for this move down to around 6000-6050 for this to complete by about the 11-12th September, and then rally into the 19th Sept again.
As this was such a strong leg up, it would not surprise to see the market consolidate somewhat at these levels before pushing to new recovery highs later in the month.
Cheers
I was actually looking at approx 38.2% retrace for this move down to around 6000-6050 for this to complete by about the 11-12th September, and then rally into the 19th Sept again.
As this was such a strong leg up, it would not surprise to see the market consolidate somewhat at these levels before pushing to new recovery highs later in the month.
Cheers
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Re: Elliot Wave - XAO starting wave C?
Is anyone who is experienced in Elliot Wave prepared to do an analysis for the current Australian market?
I'm trying to learn Elliot Wave at the moment.
Thanks,
Is anyone who is experienced in Elliot Wave prepared to do an analysis for the current Australian market?
I'm trying to learn Elliot Wave at the moment.
Thanks,
Sean K
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lol I'm not sure what is going on! Not a fan of EW?
There's a small group on this forum who delight in sabotaging any discussions on Elliott Wave and Gann that anyone tries to start (no prize for guessing who their leader is) so there's little incentive for anyone to contribute.
This thread might give you an insight into who is for, and who is against Elliott.
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Gotta expect that I guess
:I had only heard bad things about Elliott Wave in the past but have been a bit more open minded listening to people like Tech/a and the like who use at least a basic level of it to analyse where the stock is at in its trend.
I certainly am not thinking of it as the be all and end all, far from it. But I guess like anything else it is best to test it personally rather than go by the opinions (good or bad) or others (while at the same time still taking things on board).
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Re the two extracts from your comment above.
The majority of the bad comments are from those that have tried it and given up usually because it is too hard. That's up to them if they want to give up but its a bit unfair to people who are trying to add it to their knowledge base.
It is not by any means the "be all and end all", nothing is, but it can be used to supplement other methods.
My main buy targets are ABC corrections and breakouts.
To use both effectively you need to know where a stock is in its 'life cycle'.
An example...
In my Metastock scans I had three potential buy breakouts signals on IGO on the 1st, 2nd and 3rd Dec 2010 (breakout area circled on chart below).
I ignored all three because I could see the bigger picture of where IGO was in its cycle and I could project its min, typical and max target areas based on its previous pattern to that point and therefore knew that it had limited upside.
As you may see it is not just about buying winners, its about the bigger picture.
Used with Fibonacci it can enhance your prospects especially when you get to the stage of being able to glance at a chart and see a picture.
I think it was Robert Miner who said that it only works 50% of the time on 50% of the market so don't try to make it work and then get disappointed when it (you) fail.
Other than this post I am not going to continue with a discussion on the topic because its as predictable as EW that it will deteriorate to a personal level in the same manner as it has in the past
EW chart of IGO (click to expand)
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Hi Guys
I am into Elliott wave a bit, but I put a post of XAO on another thread.
I am interested in comparing the software cycles.
It is interesting the comments above, and I think we should push on with the main, markets with Elliott wave, and get it going. (XJO and Dow maybe) as we fit under the mushroom of USA.
People who do not agree with the concept can have the opportunity of doubt if the feel that way. I do not think that should worry anybody.
Cheers joea
I am into Elliott wave a bit, but I put a post of XAO on another thread.
I am interested in comparing the software cycles.
It is interesting the comments above, and I think we should push on with the main, markets with Elliott wave, and get it going. (XJO and Dow maybe) as we fit under the mushroom of USA.
People who do not agree with the concept can have the opportunity of doubt if the feel that way. I do not think that should worry anybody.
Cheers joea
skc
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Could someone kindly tell me (or point me to a reference) the underlying reason why EW should work? Or is it just observed that it works?
For example - The sun rises from the East ... it can be observed and you can use that information to bet that the sun will rise from the East tomorrow and achieve a good result. But you can also try to understand the underlying reason that the sun rises from the East is because the Earth's rotation blah blah blah...
I am not saying that you need the underlying reason for it to work for you, but I am just interest to know if there are people who's attempted to explain the rationale behind its working. The only information I've seen is related to crowd behaviour at a pretty superficial level... is there anything else out there?
For example - The sun rises from the East ... it can be observed and you can use that information to bet that the sun will rise from the East tomorrow and achieve a good result. But you can also try to understand the underlying reason that the sun rises from the East is because the Earth's rotation blah blah blah...
I am not saying that you need the underlying reason for it to work for you, but I am just interest to know if there are people who's attempted to explain the rationale behind its working. The only information I've seen is related to crowd behaviour at a pretty superficial level... is there anything else out there?
I think this is a reasonably good explanation:
http://www.esignalcentral.com/university/get/getManual/eSignal_Manual_ch6.pdf
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