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Electricity investments

JohnDe

La dolce vita
Joined
11 March 2020
Posts
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Looking at investment ideas and came across GE Vernova Inc

Scott Strazik, boss of GE Vernova, a power-equipment business that was spun out from the conglomerate last year, sees a “supercycle” in the making. Demand for everything from transformers and switchgears to high-voltage transmission cables is being turbocharged. The International Energy Agency (iea), an official forecaster, estimates that global investment in grid infrastructure reached nearly $400bn in 2024, up from a little over $300bn in 2020 and reversing a decline that began in 2017 on the back of slowing demand in China (see chart 2). The iea forecasts that spending will rise to around $600bn annually by 2030.
Goldman Sachs, a bank, estimates that India’s grid will require $100bn of investment between 2024 and 2032 as its economy grows.
Rystad, an energy consultancy, forecasts that annual grid investment in China will increase from around $100bn in 2024 to more than $150bn by 2030.

 
Reading this article on the weekend is what started me thinking. An IPO is interesting to me, I haven’t had one in over twenty years.
NOJA has appointed Ellerston Capital Solutions, the M&A arm of Ellerston, and US investment banker Harris Williams as joint lead managers of a sale process.
“We’re not sure fully what that process will be yet, but it’s going to start in January and it might be a trade sale or an IPO,” Mr O’Sullivan said. “I think either way I’ll likely stay involved.”

 
i like the logic behind your idea BUT can i get exposure in a cost-effective way

previously i held shares in ORG ( sold due to regular disappointment ) and SKI ( Spark Infrastructure ) and another small player ( both taken over since )

in NZ i hold GNE , MCY and MEZ

and also hold SXE which is trying to capitalize on the demand in Australia

i will watch the various India/Asia focused LICs and ETFs in case the fund managers take up this idea
 
It hurts that no Australian power companies have the vision to look at the new era of power, nuclear and solar , in supplying data centres and new energy customers.

All our companies seem to worry about are the unions and how much it costs some pensioner in Moonee Ponds to pay for her vibrator to run at times of high demand.

No vision at all among Australian investors and conglomerates.

Governments are next to useless.

gg
 
On the broad theme I'll simply say that very substantial capital spending on physical equipment is required over the coming years so it's a growth sector in that sense.

First because of rising electricity consumption. Leaving out the politics that pervades public discussion, bottom line is there's no "death spiral" indeed somewhat the opposite, electricity consumption is rising. Underlying reasons being data centres, electrification of consumer loads historically supplied by other means (eg gas), general population and economic growth, and in many countries onshoring of manufacturing to at least some extent.

Second because in free market Western democracies investment has generally lagged over an extended period of more than 30 years, leading to an overall generation fleet and asset base that's old and tired.

That does create the prospect of equipment suppliers struggling to meet demand in the years ahead.

One very relevant issue being the ability of the industry in any particular location to supply load increases. That is for households it's generally not a question, they just buy whatever device and start using it, but for major industrial and data centre loads these are invariably under contract, often very long term contracts (40 years isn't unheard of although 15 years is more common), and to obtain such a contract requires that the utility in question is able and willing to supply it.

I'll avoid names but I can confirm that multiple refusals to supply new contracted load have occurred in Australia over the past 24 months. That's a refusal to supply either directly as such, someone outright said it, or simply that nobody tendered which amounts to refusal in practice.

The other issue with major contracted loads is of course price and that can vary hugely. Eg for the US contiguous states in October 2024 the going rate for industrial load ranged from $54.43 / MWh in Louisiana up to $239.20 / MWh in California. For the record Alaska and Hawaii came in at $193.30 and $319.00 respectively. Source = Electric Power Monthly, Energy Information Administration (US Government).

Needless to say, that makes California an unlikely place to locate contracted load unless some other reason offsets that electricity price disadvantage. On the other hand, it doesn't mean they'll all go to Louisiana either - what they'll tend to do is gravitate toward the places with low enough prices and where other factors (eg data infrastructure, workforce, taxation, transport logistics, etc) make the overall proposition a winner.

Eg looking at some other reasonably cheap US states:

Louisiana = $54.30
New Mexico = $55.60
Texas = $60.50
Idaho = $61.40
Oklahoma = $62.70
Tennessee = $63.10
Iowa = $64.30
Georgia = $64.60
Arkansas = 66.60
Kentucky = $66.80
Mississippi = $67.20
Washington = $67.20
Utah = $71.00
South Carolina = $71.40
North Dakota = $71.50
Nebraska = $71.90
Montana = $72.40
Alabama = $73.80
Ohio = $74.30
Missouri = $74.30
Arizona = $76.60
Nevada = $76.70
Oregon = $76.70
Pennsylvania = $77.30
Wisconsin = $78.20
North Carolina = $78.80
Kansas = $80.30
West Virginia = $80.80

So those are the ones likely to attract the major loads and experience growth in their business unless some other factor outweighs more expensive electricity in other states.

Some of those you could invest in, the relevant companies are shareholder owned and listed on an exchange, others you can't because it's a government authority or it's private and not listed.

I won't be commenting on any politics regarding the above.

All prices are for industrial load specifically, they do not apply to any other class of customer, and are in USD and are as of October 2024.
 
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