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Renewable energy getting cheaper in the longer term is an assumption that most people make, just because that has happened for the last 20 years. However I'm not expecting that trend to continue into the future for very long for 2 reasons...

1 The cost of energy itself has been going up and it takes a lot of energy to build renewable plants in the first place. Currently we rely on fossil fuels to make and build all our solar and wind farms, plus the grid infrastructure to carry the power.
On average the world is now mining the harder to get oil and coal. If oil production was as cheap and easy to get as it was 50 years ago, there would be no fracking nor deep water rigs, nor for that matter
oil from tar sands. These sources of energy have only become possible because the cheapest and easiest oil has already been extracted.

2 The resources needed to build renewable energy capacity are getting to be lower grades. For example copper, that 20 years ago had an average mined grade of around 1.2%, today has an average mined grade of about 0.6%. Because you need to mine and process an average lower grade, it will take more energy to extract the amount of copper needed by the world.

I've seen many cost curves showing cheaper renewables into the future, but they all lack critical thinking about the underlying assumptions. IMHO at some point the cost of solar and wind will start to rise again as cost of manufacture, transport installation and grid connection rise.

<blockquote data-quote="brty" data-source="post: 1021275" data-attributes="member: 15091">Renewable energy getting cheaper in the longer term is an assumption that most people make, just because that has happened for the last 20 years. However I&#039;m not expecting that trend to continue into the future for very long for 2 reasons...1 The cost of energy itself has been going up and it takes a lot of energy to build renewable plants in the first place. Currently we rely on fossil fuels to make and build all our solar and wind farms, plus the grid infrastructure to carry the power.On average the world is now mining the harder to get oil and coal. If oil production was as cheap and easy to get as it was 50 years ago, there would be no fracking nor deep water rigs, nor for that matteroil from tar sands. These sources of energy have only become possible because the cheapest and easiest oil has already been extracted.2 The resources needed to build renewable energy capacity are getting to be lower grades. For example copper, that 20 years ago had an average mined grade of around 1.2%, today has an average mined grade of about 0.6%. Because you need to mine and process an average lower grade, it will take more energy to extract the amount of copper needed by the world. I&#039;ve seen many cost curves showing cheaper renewables into the future, but they all lack critical thinking about the underlying assumptions. IMHO at some point the cost of solar and wind will start to rise again as cost of manufacture, transport installation and grid connection rise.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="brty, post: 1021275, member: 15091"] Renewable energy getting cheaper in the longer term is an assumption that most people make, just because that has happened for the last 20 years. However I'm not expecting that trend to continue into the future for very long for 2 reasons... 1 The cost of energy itself has been going up and it takes a lot of energy to build renewable plants in the first place. Currently we rely on fossil fuels to make and build all our solar and wind farms, plus the grid infrastructure to carry the power. On average the world is now mining the harder to get oil and coal. If oil production was as cheap and easy to get as it was 50 years ago, there would be no fracking nor deep water rigs, nor for that matter oil from tar sands. These sources of energy have only become possible because the cheapest and easiest oil has already been extracted. 2 The resources needed to build renewable energy capacity are getting to be lower grades. For example copper, that 20 years ago had an average mined grade of around 1.2%, today has an average mined grade of about 0.6%. Because you need to mine and process an average lower grade, it will take more energy to extract the amount of copper needed by the world. I've seen many cost curves showing cheaper renewables into the future, but they all lack critical thinking about the underlying assumptions. IMHO at some point the cost of solar and wind will start to rise again as cost of manufacture, transport installation and grid connection rise. [/QUOTE]

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