El Niño

[Knobby22]

With Melbourne May temperature records being broken again ( by a few days!) and the winds reversing it appears a new El Niño is almost a certainty.

El Niños always lead to global temperature rises and drought across Eastern Australia. I would not be surprised to see global temperatures broken if this is a severe one.

This almost belongs in a business thread as it is not going to be good for our GDP.

 

[DB008]

There has already been some talk of a 2014 El Nino that will break the records that were set in '97 El Nino.

 

[Ijustnewit]

With Melbourne May temperature records being broken again ( by a few days!) and the winds reversing it appears a new El Niño is almost a certainty.

El Niños always lead to global temperature rises and drought across Eastern Australia. I would not be surprised to see global temperatures broken if this is a severe one.

This almost belongs in a business thread as it is not going to be good for our GDP.

Yes , Hobart has been the same. We have had the hottest April day on record and now we are backing it up with a run of three weeks so far , of what is more like December weather. Last week we broke the record for the hottest May day so late into the month. Tomorrow is also looking very warm for the bottom three cities of Melb , Adel and Hobart.
It also is the Tasmanian wet season now into winter and we are well behind on totals and the outlook is very grim. So next Spring will be bushfires and dust unless the things turn around , I was looking at the June temperature forecast last night. Hobart is set for a run of 17 and 18 degree days in what is officially winter.
I think the ski fields in Victoria and NSW are going to do it tough this year , reports are that it is too warm to make even artificial snow . I think the season opens in about three weeks, I think the snow down here this far south will also be scarce without any decent cold fronts.
Yes it's not a good thing , the lack of cold fronts to the South East in recent decades have a great deal to do with it. Apparently scientist have found some link in the rise of Antarctic winds that are drawing the cold fronts well south and letting these high pressure patterns we are getting dominate the climate .
But I will leave it at that as there are other forums open on that matter.

The good news is we usually get a strong La Nina in the years after the event , so lets go and dig some holes whilst it's dry to soak up the rain when it returns.

 

[Smurf1976]

It's too early to confirm as such, but the weather data is certainly pointing toward a fairly high probability of an El Nino forming this year.

That said, quite a bit rain has fallen in parts of Western Tas in the past few days. This is mostly Hydro Tas data, not official Bureau of Meteorology data, but will be fairly accurate.

Reece Power Station = 80mm. Lake Burbury 120mm. Howards Plains 100mm. Zeehan 80mm. Strathgordon 80mm. Gordon River above junction with Franklin River - 115mm. Franklin River at Mt Fincham Track = 125mm. Que River = 100mm. Cradle Mountain = 120mm. Waratah = 90mm. Lake Margaret Power Station = 110 mm.

But it gets considerably drier moving to the East. Derwent River below Lake St Clair dam (technically not in the East, but further East than the others in the West) = 65mm. Clarence River 45mm. Dee Lagoon = 38mm. Palmerston Switchyard = 21mm. South Esk River at Llewellyn = 10mm. Tods Corner Canal = 22mm. Miena Dam = 22mm. Shannon River at Hermitage = 20mm. Lake Augusta at Dam = 40mm. Great Lake at Poatina intake = 35mm.

Cloud seeding operations. Plane flew but no seeding took place (conditions found to be unsuitable) on 2nd and 6th May. Successful seeding flight over the Gordon catchment occurred on 19th May.

So overall yes it is somewhat dry although it's been very wet in parts for the past few days.