Interesting thesis, but a lot of the asian market is soon about to vanish.
I can see the canada-usa connection though.
That doesn't mean they aren't a big consumer though.EU's demographic pyramid is upside down, as is china's, the UK's and japan's. India's a big country but wealthy it is not.
It is logical for the UK to reestablish their strong historical Commonwealth ties with Australia, New Zealand and Canada. The potential is enormous with UK FDI in Australia: for example; we can build and establish an ethanol industry in FNQ and supply the UK directly with ethanol to power their economy.
Not sure why you think the Asian market is going to vanish; ASEAN are a huge consumer market with significant growth.
Hong Kong is in trouble, which will see massive capital and business flight to Singapore; perhaps Sydney and Tokyo will benefit somewhat, but Singapore is going to be the main beneficiary.
That doesn't mean they aren't a big consumer though.
Not a growing one perhaps, but still a big consumer nonetheless.
Taking just one product, oil, well 80% of the world's consumption takes place outside the US.
I take a only a casual interest in UK domestic news but there do seem to be definite moves in that direction from what's being reported about politics etc. They clearly seem to be looking to their historical ties once again at least in terms of what's being said.It is logical for the UK to reestablish their strong historical Commonwealth ties with Australia, New Zealand and Canada
Simple demographics. Baby bust = no consumers. Lots of old farts = lots of cost of caring for them.
That is now. I'm talking about years from now.
50 years from now for example there will be 500 million fewer chinese people in the world. 500 million!
I take a only a casual interest in UK domestic news but there do seem to be definite moves in that direction from what's being reported about politics etc. They clearly seem to be looking to their historical ties once again at least in terms of what's being said.
50 years from now for example there will be 500 million fewer chinese people in the world. 500 million!
Sorry, I should have specified asia more generally. However, like the mention of india, size does not necessarily mean wealth.What are you talking about? Look at the demographics of the ASEAN nations; look at Indonesia.
Sorry, I should have specified asia more generally. However, like the mention of india, size does not necessarily mean wealth.
The long & the short of it is that an export market needs to be found to replace china/japan. Indonesia is not going to become the world's workshop that china has been for the past 3 decades. India is the one that actually has the best shot IMO.
This is all ignoring the geopolitical instability that zeihan predicts however - do you reject that thesis?
That's a good starting point - but there's obviously far more to consider, such as access to energy or the oceans, political environment, geography, etc etc.
I can't see a vast archipelago like the philippines becoming the world's workshop, but a land mass like india, that I can see. That workshop then needs a market to sell into too.
We're still talking about a three step brit-aus-india process though. What actually is britain going to sell to aus that aus is then going to process or engineer or refine further to sell into this hypothetical well-off india? Same goes for the britain-canada-america question that won't actually be a hypothetical.
Australia per se doesn't even sell anything other than raw commodities and food even now. Canada only sells oil.
Smurf - I was really just talking about 10 years from now. Chronos & I actually have a friendly wager on for 2030. I just mentioned the 50 year timeframe to demonstrate the immense shifts that a lot of countries are currently undergoing.
I can see capital flight (investment), but that's all, and there's nothing that's been stopping that before brexit or any kind of trade deal. Nothing's changed from that perspective.
The amount of actual *trade* between the countries is SFA.
Sure, but I asked for what exactly and you basically said capital flight - which is a different thing.
What actual *trade* do you think is now going to occur?
Enough to make up the slack from whatever they lose out with reference the EU?
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