Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

basilio · 25 May 2020

The biggest individual cause of COVID 19 in Australia has been the hundreds of passengers infected from the cruise ships that effectively provided a petri dish of infection.
Excellent indepth story on the background to these infections.
As usual it will be an ABC 4 Corners expose
It also highlights the determination of Carnival cruise to keep sailing regardless of risk.

Anatomy of an outbreak: How the Ruby Princess nightmare unfolded
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-25/four-corners-ruby-princess-coronavirus-investigation/12266884

sptrawler · 25 May 2020

basilio said:
The collapse in bank dividends and almost certainly property market dividends will be playing havoc with investors and retirees.

It will also also result in a substantial revaluation of assets which don't return income.

Retirees face financial ruin as coronavirus slashes share dividends
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...l-ruin-as-coronavirus-slashes-share-dividends

Well retirees are responsible for the youth's financial woes, according to the media, so it wont get much airplay.

Knobby22 · 25 May 2020

sptrawler said:
Well retirees are responsible for the youth's financial woes, according to the media, so it wont get much airplay.

I agree, we will only hear about the retirees whinging day in day out throughout all the media.

It's the incompetence of people running their own SMFs and investing too much in banks.
If they had left it in a low fee well run professional fund such as Australian Super and used Annuities they would not be in trouble.

Dona Ferentes · 25 May 2020

agree

The headline, we know the issue is
"Bungle in coronavirus stimulus JobKeeper could be good in more than one way for the budget's bottom line"
- it (the outcome) is unambiguously good news .

Could say more; the point scoring short attention span news cycle crowd or professional oppositionists may say what they like, but less debt and more people back to work must be good

(and besides, the political decision making was based on the modelling provided by scientists. Oh shock horror, wou'd have thought they could get it wrong)

sptrawler · 25 May 2020

Knobby22 said:
I agree, we will only hear about the retirees whinging day in day out throughout all the media.

It's the incompetence of people running their own SMFs and investing too much in banks.
If they had left it in a low fee well run professional fund such as Australian Super and used Annuities they would not be in trouble.

Well that highlights what I was saying, the most despised sector of society.

Humid · 25 May 2020

sptrawler said:
Well that highlights what I was saying, the most despised sector of society.

Don’t flatter yourself no one cares
In my years of working with thousands of different people from all walks of life I can honestly say people in your situation have never been mentioned
Maybe it’s the way you project yourself

sptrawler · 25 May 2020

Humid said:
Don’t flatter yourself no one cares
In my years of working with thousands of different people from all walks of life I can honestly say people in your situation have never been mentioned
Maybe it’s the way you project yourself

Bill cared enough to single us out, he is still limping around, with the hole in his foot.
Obviously the thousands of people you have worked with can't read, because it took up a huge amount of media space.
By the way, I've never had a problem protecting myself.

Humid · 25 May 2020

You keep bringing Bill up so here you go
Bill get elected your fund isn’t viable anymore you join Australian super
Now sitting prettier

All the media attention you point out is caused from people with too much time on their hands
Get a job y’a bum

basilio · 25 May 2020

Knobby22 said:
I agree, we will only hear about the retirees whinging day in day out throughout all the media.

It's the incompetence of people running their own SMFs and investing too much in banks.
If they had left it in a low fee well run professional fund such as Australian Super and used Annuities they would not be in trouble.

Don't know about that...
On almost any analysis a cheaply run SMF fund that was in Banks and say Argo for dividends and a good spread across the ASX (and would have been eligible for franking credits as well !) would have been a sound investment choice.

I can't see how any other super funds would have provided a better outcome. Certainly the retail funds would be a worse outcome. Industry funds probably only a few percent better.

I think the big challenge for any investor at the moment, funds or individual , is identifying a spread of investments that will safely return sufficient income to enable a retiree to live comfortably.

Humid · 25 May 2020

basilio said:
Don't know about that...
On almost any analysis a cheaply run SMF fund that was in Banks and say Argo for dividends and a good spread across the ASX (and would have been eligible for franking credits as well !) would have been a sound investment choice.

I can't see how any other super funds would have provided a better outcome. Certainly the retail funds would be a worse outcome. Industry funds probably only a few percent better.

I think the big challenge for any investor at the moment, funds or individual , is identifying a spread of investments that will safely return sufficient income to enable a retiree to live comfortably.

What dividends?

basilio · 25 May 2020

Humid said:
What dividends?

?? Clearly the "safe" ones that seemed like they were going "forever" before COVID19.
Dividend yields of 5-6% plus bonus franking credits.
Gravy train stuff - it seemed.

Humid · 25 May 2020

Oh yes hindsight is the most powerful tool in my shed

Dona Ferentes · 25 May 2020

Debt in a time of crisis
May 21, 2020

The ability of countries to support their economies today turns on fiscal practices that were set well before this crisis.

"The truth is we still have an incomplete understanding of the long-term consequences of large national debts. Within the academic uncertainty, there exists enough intellectual cover for those on both the left and the right to advocate their standing ideological positions, with sufficient ammunition available to press their case. What is unfortunate about this is that it smothers sensible debate. In politics, the media and around the dinner-party table, most people’s views on the virtues of government debt were firmly established before the pandemic struck. In many countries, that is going to make a reasoned debate about the challenges to come almost impossible."

https://www.globalvaluefund.com.au/press-research/the-age-of-artificial-returns-2/

sptrawler · 25 May 2020

basilio said:
I think the big challenge for any investor at the moment, funds or individual , is identifying a spread of investments that will safely return sufficient income to enable a retiree to live comfortably.

That is so very true Bas, interest rates at or near 0%, most companies hording capital and with that dividends, rents (commercial and residential) tumbling.
There is certainly going to be a lot of people caught, unless they have enough savings for a protracted slowdown, it really wont matter too much where your money is investment returns will drop.
The endless boom has certainly come to a grinding halt ATM, we're just lucky you don't need a ton of money to enjoy life in Aus, there are a lot of people in less fortunate countries that are doing it a lot tougher and have no welfare system.

sptrawler · 25 May 2020

Humid said:
You keep bringing Bill up so here you go
Bill get elected your fund isn’t viable anymore you join Australian super
Now sitting prettier

All the media attention you point out is caused from people with too much time on their hands
Get a job y’a bum

I'll come and hot bunk with you, as long as you aren't as sweaty, as your name sounds.

Humid · 25 May 2020

Social distancing......sorry mate

Humid · 25 May 2020

sptrawler said:
That is so very true Bas, interest rates at or near 0%, most companies hording capital and with that dividends, rents (commercial and residential) tumbling.
There is certainly going to be a lot of people caught, unless they have enough savings for a protracted slowdown, it really wont matter too much where your money is investment returns will drop.
The endless boom has certainly come to a grinding halt ATM, we're just lucky you don't need a ton of money to enjoy life in Aus, there are a lot of people in less fortunate countries that are doing it a lot tougher and have no welfare system.

The way it is setup in this country is you could quite possibly be on less than the pension and self funded
Good time to lobby for change

Knobby22 · 25 May 2020

sptrawler said:
Well that highlights what I was saying, the most despised sector of society.

They are not despised, its just a trap for

basilio said:
Don't know about that...
On almost any analysis a cheaply run SMF fund that was in Banks and say Argo for dividends and a good spread across the ASX (and would have been eligible for franking credits as well !) would have been a sound investment choice.

I can't see how any other super funds would have provided a better outcome. Certainly the retail funds would be a worse outcome. Industry funds probably only a few percent better.

I think the big challenge for any investor at the moment, funds or individual , is identifying a spread of investments that will safely return sufficient income to enable a retiree to live comfortably.

If you are in a large super fund you get that spread of assets and you are able to change asset allocation almost instantly.

For instance, I switched at the start of this to capital stable which showed only a minor drop and a few weeks back put half on Conservative. I am now breakeven on my super.

Now if I was retired I would have bought an annuity stream that would guarantee a certain income and then left the rest in Super. I will have a few shares out of super as my playthings + I can buy shares through the Super Fund if its someone like Australian Super also.

Many people should not be running self funded super, can they beat the professionals after fees, how do they get a decent spread of investments?
If you are not getting the excellent returns of Australian Super for instance then why go through the extra pain and cost?

I don't plan to have an SMF and I'm pretty good with the share market.
The only reason most people get into them is that they are convinced by the right wing media marketing and a dislike for the Industry Funds. Of course there are those investors and traders who run their own successfully and good on them, but that's not the average Joe who will now be looking to the government (ie taxpayers) to bail them out.

sptrawler · 25 May 2020

Humid said:
The way it is setup in this country is you could quite possibly be on less than the pension and self funded
Good time to lobby for change

Absolutely true, as I've always said, give everyone the pension and tax the super as income.
But getting off thread.

sptrawler · 25 May 2020

Knobby22 said:
The only reason most people get into them is that they are convinced by the right wing media marketing and a dislike for the Industry Funds. Of course there are those investors and traders who run their own successfully and good on them, but that's not the average Joe who will now be looking to the government (ie taxpayers) to bail them out.

Actually I've never heard anyone say they dislike Industry Funds, retail funds maybe, but not Industry.
All the people I know who run their own SMSF's, do so because they have seen enough investment companies collapse in their life time, they don't want it to happen to them.
So they are conservative investors, and usually live the same way.
Not everything is driven by the left/right wing ethos.

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