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Morning Mr Skate,

So Peter2 is expressing conservatism around the bullishness of the market into 2024. Whether he is right or wrong is immaterial. The point I think is to have a bias based on analysis.

What form of analysis? Whatever you have the most confidence in.

Now you are probably the most vocal of the mechanical traders on ASF. I was reading through from the start of this thread yesterday.

[ATTACH=full]166911[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]166912[/ATTACH]

The blue box corresponds with the EWA and 2016-2019 time period.

Market up, strategy up. Market dips, strategy dips.

More recently:

[ATTACH=full]166910[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]166909[/ATTACH]

Again, a similar sort of correlation....save for the fact that your equity curve went to a high, while the market did not.

You are squeezing just enough juice out of the green patches of market action to stay positive in a pretty choppy market.

Contrasted with the 2016-2019 strategy which had a far easier market, you seem to have improved (adapted) the strategy. So congrats.

So a couple of questions:

(i) How different is the 2016 strategy from the 2023 strategy? Substantial or minor?
(ii) Given that your strategies more or less mirror the market, tightening up on exits has been the difference?

Assuming for the moment positive answers to those 2 questions, can we conclude that your overall market view changed? That this overall view has driven the modifications to the strategies?

With 3 basic market patterns: (a) outright bull, (b) outright bear and (c) sideways choppy, your strategy should be good to go for (a) and (c). How about (b)?

If we were to get a similar market to 2008-2009?

[ATTACH=full]166913[/ATTACH]

Would you squeeze enough juice out of the green? Assuming that the answer is again a yes, then:

(i) Would the system be in drawdown (probably);
(ii) How bad do you think it would be;
(iii) How long do you think it would last?

The drawdown is 1 element of testing the trader's resolve and psychology and belief in his system. The second element is how long that drawdown lasts. Duration is psychologically incredibly draining on the individual.

Which completes the circle with Peter2's comments on expectations going forward. I would argue (as Peter2 has) that an expectation going into 2024 is prudent if you have a tool belt and not simply a hammer.

jog on
duc

<blockquote data-quote="ducati916" data-source="post: 1254921" data-attributes="member: 2975">Morning Mr Skate,So Peter2 is expressing conservatism around the bullishness of the market into 2024. Whether he is right or wrong is immaterial. The point I think is to have a bias based on analysis.What form of analysis? Whatever you have the most confidence in.Now you are probably the most vocal of the mechanical traders on ASF. I was reading through from the start of this thread yesterday.[ATTACH=full]166911[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]166912[/ATTACH]The blue box corresponds with the EWA and 2016-2019 time period.Market up, strategy up. Market dips, strategy dips.More recently:[ATTACH=full]166910[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]166909[/ATTACH]Again, a similar sort of correlation....save for the fact that your equity curve went to a high, while the market did not.You are squeezing just enough juice out of the green patches of market action to stay positive in a pretty choppy market.Contrasted with the 2016-2019 strategy which had a far easier market, you seem to have improved (adapted) the strategy. So congrats.So a couple of questions:(i) How different is the 2016 strategy from the 2023 strategy? Substantial or minor?(ii) Given that your strategies more or less mirror the market, tightening up on exits has been the difference?Assuming for the moment positive answers to those 2 questions, can we conclude that your overall market view changed? That this overall view has driven the modifications to the strategies?With 3 basic market patterns: (a) outright bull, (b) outright bear and (c) sideways choppy, your strategy should be good to go for (a) and (c). How about (b)?If we were to get a similar market to 2008-2009?[ATTACH=full]166913[/ATTACH]Would you squeeze enough juice out of the green? Assuming that the answer is again a yes, then:(i) Would the system be in drawdown (probably);(ii) How bad do you think it would be;(iii) How long do you think it would last?The drawdown is 1 element of testing the trader&#039;s resolve and psychology and belief in his system. The second element is how long that drawdown lasts. Duration is psychologically incredibly draining on the individual.Which completes the circle with Peter2&#039;s comments on expectations going forward. I would argue (as Peter2 has) that an expectation going into 2024 is prudent if you have a tool belt and not simply a hammer.jog onduc</blockquote>

[QUOTE="ducati916, post: 1254921, member: 2975"] Morning Mr Skate, So Peter2 is expressing conservatism around the bullishness of the market into 2024. Whether he is right or wrong is immaterial. The point I think is to have a bias based on analysis. What form of analysis? Whatever you have the most confidence in. Now you are probably the most vocal of the mechanical traders on ASF. I was reading through from the start of this thread yesterday. [ATTACH type="full"]166911[/ATTACH][ATTACH type="full"]166912[/ATTACH] The blue box corresponds with the EWA and 2016-2019 time period. Market up, strategy up. Market dips, strategy dips. More recently: [ATTACH type="full"]166910[/ATTACH][ATTACH type="full"]166909[/ATTACH] Again, a similar sort of correlation....save for the fact that your equity curve went to a high, while the market did not. You are squeezing just enough juice out of the green patches of market action to stay positive in a pretty choppy market. Contrasted with the 2016-2019 strategy which had a far easier market, you seem to have improved (adapted) the strategy. So congrats. So a couple of questions: (i) How different is the 2016 strategy from the 2023 strategy? Substantial or minor? (ii) Given that your strategies more or less mirror the market, tightening up on exits has been the difference? Assuming for the moment positive answers to those 2 questions, can we conclude that your overall market view changed? That this overall view has driven the modifications to the strategies? With 3 basic market patterns: (a) outright bull, (b) outright bear and (c) sideways choppy, your strategy should be good to go for (a) and (c). How about (b)? If we were to get a similar market to 2008-2009? [ATTACH type="full"]166913[/ATTACH] Would you squeeze enough juice out of the green? Assuming that the answer is again a yes, then: (i) Would the system be in drawdown (probably); (ii) How bad do you think it would be; (iii) How long do you think it would last? The drawdown is 1 element of testing the trader's resolve and psychology and belief in his system. The second element is how long that drawdown lasts. Duration is psychologically incredibly draining on the individual. Which completes the circle with Peter2's comments on expectations going forward. I would argue (as Peter2 has) that an expectation going into 2024 is prudent if you have a tool belt and not simply a hammer. jog on duc [/QUOTE]

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