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[USER=57364]@Skate[/USER] 's posts are always read with interest.

You said it yourself, the start of trends can only be identified in hindsight. All attempts to identify them at the time will be an exercise in probability. We may be correct at the time or we may not.

All your back tests have conclusively shown that it doesn't matter if we can't identify the exact start of the trend. If we manage the exits well we can create a positive edge. This is the most important aspect of a profitable trading system.

All attempts at identifying the start of a trend and you've posted heaps of indicators that do the job, look for the same thing, price moving off a swing low. Of all the indicators mentioned in this thread, what does the best job?

Does ROC beat Supertrend, DSMA, VOSS, etc. ? The circular game, rock, paper, scissors comes to mind.
I don't think we'll get an answer to this question as the statistical analysis would need to be extremely rigorous.

I use the supertrend profitably as it fits my beliefs about market behaviour. This belief states that all price movement within 1x ATR is noise on every time frame that is examined. I want to look at price when it moves out of the noise for the first time. Especially when price moves out of a consolidation or a volatility squeeze or after a higher low on multiple timeframes. Include a pinch of high volume and that's my recipe for an entry tactic.

[USER=57364]@Skate[/USER] uses the ROC very profitably. I've no doubt that he could use the DSMA or VOSS just as profitably.

<blockquote data-quote="peter2" data-source="post: 1120983" data-attributes="member: 13908">[USER=57364]@Skate[/USER] &#039;s posts are always read with interest. You said it yourself, the start of trends can only be identified in hindsight. All attempts to identify them at the time will be an exercise in probability. We may be correct at the time or we may not. All your back tests have conclusively shown that it doesn&#039;t matter if we can&#039;t identify the exact start of the trend. If we manage the exits well we can create a positive edge. This is the most important aspect of a profitable trading system. All attempts at identifying the start of a trend and you&#039;ve posted heaps of indicators that do the job, look for the same thing, price moving off a swing low. Of all the indicators mentioned in this thread, what does the best job? Does ROC beat Supertrend, DSMA, VOSS, etc. ?&nbsp; The circular game, rock, paper, scissors comes to mind. I don&#039;t think we&#039;ll get an answer to this question as the statistical analysis would need to be extremely rigorous. I use the supertrend profitably as it fits my beliefs about market behaviour. This belief states that all price movement within 1x ATR is noise on every time frame that is examined. I want to look at price when it moves out of the noise for the first time. Especially when price moves out of a consolidation or a volatility squeeze or after a higher low on multiple timeframes. Include a pinch of high volume and that&#039;s my recipe for an entry tactic.[USER=57364]@Skate[/USER] uses the ROC very profitably. I&#039;ve no doubt that he could use the DSMA or VOSS just as profitably.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="peter2, post: 1120983, member: 13908"] [USER=57364]@Skate[/USER] 's posts are always read with interest. You said it yourself, the start of trends can only be identified in hindsight. All attempts to identify them at the time will be an exercise in probability. We may be correct at the time or we may not. All your back tests have conclusively shown that it doesn't matter if we can't identify the exact start of the trend. If we manage the exits well we can create a positive edge. This is the most important aspect of a profitable trading system. All attempts at identifying the start of a trend and you've posted heaps of indicators that do the job, look for the same thing, price moving off a swing low. Of all the indicators mentioned in this thread, what does the best job? Does ROC beat Supertrend, DSMA, VOSS, etc. ? The circular game, rock, paper, scissors comes to mind. I don't think we'll get an answer to this question as the statistical analysis would need to be extremely rigorous. I use the supertrend profitably as it fits my beliefs about market behaviour. This belief states that all price movement within 1x ATR is noise on every time frame that is examined. I want to look at price when it moves out of the noise for the first time. Especially when price moves out of a consolidation or a volatility squeeze or after a higher low on multiple timeframes. Include a pinch of high volume and that's my recipe for an entry tactic. [USER=57364]@Skate[/USER] uses the ROC very profitably. I've no doubt that he could use the DSMA or VOSS just as profitably. [/QUOTE]

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