duc's Commodity Trading Thread

ducati916 · 28 December 2019

Big investors swallow up unwanted natural gas assets. The U.S. shale gas industry is in the doldrums, but investors with deep pockets are buying up assets on the cheap. Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones invested more than $1 billion in Comstock Resources (NYSE: CRK), which is targeting the Haynesville shale. There are a handful of other similar examples, which amount to bets that some companies will survive the shake out. “Having deep pockets willing to step into the fourth quarter of a gas bloodbath creates unique opportunities that appear late cycle when traditional capital is exhausted,” SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analysts wrote in a recent note. Tudor Pickering summed it up: “The punch line is simple,” the analysts wrote, “survive in 2020 to thrive in 2023.”

jog on
duc

ducati916 · 30 December 2019

A bit out of date:

Will update when the Christmas period is over.

jog on
duc

ducati916 · 31 December 2019

Converted my long NG (UGAZ) position into a spread trade, with a 50% +/- spread between NG and Gas Producers (GASL) so short the Producers (GASX). The Producers have been on a tear recently opening a nice spread twixt the two.

jog on
duc

ducati916 · 7 February 2020

Jim Cramer (at the end of January) pronounced 'oil' dead.

(a) Demand for crude is going up;
(b) There are global supply constraints;
(c) The sector is (now) starved of capital;
(d) CAPEX is very low (non-existent) which creates supply issues going forward;
(e) For equities, P/S is down to 1.17;
(f) For Drillers, P/Cflw is 11.8 (as low as 2008)
(g) Integrated companies dividend yield is 4.7% with a 9% growth rate;
(h) S&P energy sector is trading at a P/E consistent with POO at $28/barrel;
(i) Analysts uniformly hate the sector.

This is the buy and accumulate sector going forward.

jog on
duc

qldfrog · 7 February 2020

We

ducati916 said:
Jim Cramer (at the end of January) pronounced 'oil' dead.

(a) Demand for crude is going up;
(b) There are global supply constraints;
(c) The sector is (now) starved of capital;
(d) CAPEX is very low (non-existent) which creates supply issues going forward;
(e) For equities, P/S is down to 1.17;
(f) For Drillers, P/Cflw is 11.8 (as low as 2008)
(g) Integrated companies dividend yield is 4.7% with a 9% growth rate;
(h) S&P energy sector is trading at a P/E consistent with POO at $28/barrel;
(i) Analysts uniformly hate the sector.

This is the buy and accumulate sector going forward.

jog on
duc

Should get another push down when people wake up to the chinese economy hit, then probably the best roi for the next 20y while people chase EV

peter2 · 20 February 2020

Start of a rally in Nat gas prices? We need to see further cold weather forecasts for the US.

ducati916 · 20 February 2020

peter2 said:
Start of a rally in Nat gas prices? We need to see further cold weather forecasts for the US.

I have been busy converting my position (via spreads and options) which was a loser, into a gradual winner. It seems that fundamentally, NG has altered vis-a-vis supply, beyond any of the historic price ranges. Betting on 'weather' is not really for me.

jog on
duc

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