Normal
Donchian style systems are too simplistic and is why they've failed over time. You need to go beyond simplistic. Anyone can bang out a breakout system in minutes these days. Some research on the way Campbell & Co have changed over time will lead to some great insights on how to improve the quality of a trend following system. I think you'll find that price and volume are now almost secondary inputs.I should also say that many of these top fund managers being quoted look at risk adjusted returns and not necessarily absolute returns like many of us are attempting to achieve. This portends directly to the drawdown equation being discussed herein. A 25-yo who has the maturity and patience to look at a trend following method over the longer term should have greater tolerance for drawdowns than say someone who is older and more risk adverse.Nick
Donchian style systems are too simplistic and is why they've failed over time. You need to go beyond simplistic. Anyone can bang out a breakout system in minutes these days. Some research on the way Campbell & Co have changed over time will lead to some great insights on how to improve the quality of a trend following system. I think you'll find that price and volume are now almost secondary inputs.
I should also say that many of these top fund managers being quoted look at risk adjusted returns and not necessarily absolute returns like many of us are attempting to achieve. This portends directly to the drawdown equation being discussed herein. A 25-yo who has the maturity and patience to look at a trend following method over the longer term should have greater tolerance for drawdowns than say someone who is older and more risk adverse.
Nick
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