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- 11 May 2005
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The reason to do a lot of testing is to get you to the point where you are confident about what you are doing. However, I can probably find something to critique on every test you'll ever do.
Most software that tests is totally unreliable, but you just have to do the best you can do.
And the more you understand how your concept works and what to expect from it in all kinds of market, the less you'll have to do testing it.
Yes, I use an efficiency algorithm to screen...but I don't buy something because it has an efficiency of 14.31. Instead I buy it because I like the look of it.
2) I'll have a number of exits but will use 25% of the price to determine 1R. Other exists include trendlines, support areas, etc. I'll adjust my stops every weekend. I'll also exit if I find a stronger stock or the efficiency drops below 10.
3) If the market is 70% positive efficiency and 30% negative efficiency, then I want to be 70% long and 30% short.
This system fits me and my schedule. It's also very profitable. I understand it very well. It's too discretionary to test, so I keep track of my R-multiples and expectancy in real time.
It`s by Van Tharp.
But I guess you will disagree with anyone, so I have noted your thoughts.
ducati916 said:Snake
Excellent.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
However for me to agree, they must present something that provides evidence of thought.
jog on
d998
tech/a said:Happy to do so.
But before I do would like an apology re the claim that my statement about discretionary trading was/is BS.
Whereas mechanical trading uses a fixed set of rules to determine trade timing and direction in a systematic if this, then that fashion, discretionary trading is not confined in the same manner. The difference is in the fact that the discretionary trader does not always make the same interpretation of a market indicator (chart, technical study, fundamental information, etc.), or use it in the same fashion each time it is applied. He/she uses his/her own judgement to determine the value of that indicator at the given point in time.
From the perspective of Technical Analysis, the classic example of a discretionary trader is one who uses chart patterns to make trading decisions in a visual, nonalgorithmic fashion. This type of trader seeks patterns in the charts and tries to determine what they mean given the market situation.
On the side of Fundamental Analysis, it could almost be said that one is talking exclusively about discretionary trading. There are some quantitative elements which can be applied, but forecasting a company's earnings per share, for example, requires using some "assumption" and interpretation.
[edit]
Advantages
* Adaptiveness: Mechanical trading systems are, for the most part, not very adaptive to changes in market conditions. The discretionary trader, however, does not have the problem. As markets shift, the trader has the ability to alter the way he or she derives and or interprets the analysis used to make trading decisions.
* "Market Feel": Because the discretionary trader must, per force, analyze the market(s) on a regular basis, there is the opportunity to gain a more intuitive feeling for the market - a better understanding of how it opperates under given sets of circumstances.
[edit]
Disadvantages
* More work: Because the discretionary trader is relying upon her/his own analysis and not a set of automatically generated buy/sell decisions, more time and effort must be exerted during the course of trading.
* Narrower focus: A discretionary trader, because of the amount of work required to generate the underlying analysis, is often limited in the number of markets he/she can effectively trade. A mechanical trader can often apply her/his system to a wide array of markets.
* Psychological elements: Because discretionary trading is beholden to the analysis and execution performed by the individual rather than the system, there is the risk of biases, lack of discipline, and other psychological short-comings creeping in.
ducati916 said:Snake
In regards to your link;
But it is improving.
However, it is not really the software that is the weak link, it is the person using the software.
I would say the interpretation of the results - curve fitting etc.
Although you would need a "systems guy" to confirm, I suspect that this statement is total nonsense as well. The scan will quite possibly throw up consistent types of chart patterns, that could be coded, and tested.
The exits could easily be tested.
Exits yes - intentions no. You forgot to add that he will close positions in favour of better opportunities.
jog on
d998
tech/a said:Had a mate open an exclusive wine distributorship.He loves his wines and knows everything there is to know about wines.Few share his passion and it cost him $250,000 to find that out.
tech/a said:Systematic traders have a plan they have points of reference,proven (to them at least) start finish and risk strategies. They have a fair idea that they can get a profit from their trading,how consistant that can be over a long period of time they dont know,they can guess but they dont know.These types of traders can be profitable. However most would not be willing to trade their lifes savings on their systematic approach.Its seen as sexy as you can define and show relevence to profitable trades and most turn a blind eye to the importance of the losses.
tech/a said:Like buying a business knowing you have a demand and a potential profit and then putting everything you own on it. Done this myself both in Business and trading.Business overheads were at one time mis judged and interest rates blew out---business nearly sent me broke. Trading had some great wins but losses slowly made the great wins to far apart. No confidence to place decent capital on trades.
tech/a said:Mechanical traders Not sexy no longer rely on "Accuracy" of analysis
Accept both profit and loss within those parameters returned from as exhaustive testing as they have the capability of doing. No necessity to take every trade as regardless of trade taken in any universe at anytime the expected return will fall within those parameters. (This can be found through Montecarlo analysis). Certaintly dependant on ability of systems designer and software and their understanding of what it is that a Mechanical trading method enables. (Purely mechanical is when everything is executed by a mechanised trading platform). greater confidence as you can determine at anytime where your trading is relative to the "Blueprint",more confidence to plough more into your business.
:aus:tech/a said:Like having a business with a cashflow projection and your accountant next to you giving you weekly P/Ls and relating that back to your Cashflow report.
Then watching your balance sheet to ensure business growth.
Have traded and conducted business and property like that for some years----never looked back!
* Adaptiveness: Mechanical trading systems are, for the most part, not very adaptive to changes in market conditions. The discretionary trader, however, does not have the problem. As markets shift, the trader has the ability to alter the way he or she derives and or interprets the analysis used to make trading decisions.
stevo said:........
As yet I can't get my systems to talk with my hairdresser, read the Financial Review, or look at the stars for some clues, but who knows! .......
regards
stevo
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