tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
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Wayne/Mit.
Your charts look very similar to those of Frankie 's or Deelite at Reefcap.
Are you aware or familiar with Frankiee's work?
Re forward projection type zones,Fib Gann,Trendlines Support and resistance.
My personal view and one through observation and testing is that these areas are no better than a 50/50 proposition re any trade setup and its result,being in the direction you expect it to move.
Now before you all yell BUT BUT proof is in the pudding I/We find the results is way over 50%---consider this.
ANY setup entry or exit will have a mean (That is a standard value between extremes).So often you will have results moving toward either extreme.
A run in your direction even over a year or so doesnt mean that the "mean" will not be visited or the extreme in the other direction,tested.
Technical analysis I think is the ability of the tactician to identify and exploit moves and in particular extreme moves away from the mean of ANY form of analysis,be it predictive or regressive in nature.
To be able to RECOGNISE firstly the mean then the move away and then being able to extract the most from that shift----being the ultimate decider in profit.
As a Systems trader I find that quantity of information in and combination of methodology gives a result which I can then 'Place the odds" more in my favour---in exploiting these extremes.
In your case Wayne when exploiting these extremes in one or a few entities you can and do become familiar with both the mean AND the extremes in them.Experience will and does allow you to exploit those moves which we think we see as amazingly repetitive when in actual fact they are nothing more than a point on a chart expressed mathamatically. Repetition of a mathamatical extreme is simply a swing in the direction of the extreme which will not be perminent---as is the case with extremes in the other direction and the mean itself.---The ability to identify and exploit---being the point here rather than the analysis itself.
As an example Ive always been a Commodore man I bought 4 Fords for the Company and I cant believe how many Fords are on the road.
If I drive my Ford to a Ford dealer then I'll find lots more Fords.
If I see an accumulation of indicators that point to a move away or further away from the "mean" then chances are I'll be able to exploit it.
My way of handling the Efficient Market and Random Market theories!
Your charts look very similar to those of Frankie 's or Deelite at Reefcap.
Are you aware or familiar with Frankiee's work?
Re forward projection type zones,Fib Gann,Trendlines Support and resistance.
My personal view and one through observation and testing is that these areas are no better than a 50/50 proposition re any trade setup and its result,being in the direction you expect it to move.
Now before you all yell BUT BUT proof is in the pudding I/We find the results is way over 50%---consider this.
ANY setup entry or exit will have a mean (That is a standard value between extremes).So often you will have results moving toward either extreme.
A run in your direction even over a year or so doesnt mean that the "mean" will not be visited or the extreme in the other direction,tested.
Technical analysis I think is the ability of the tactician to identify and exploit moves and in particular extreme moves away from the mean of ANY form of analysis,be it predictive or regressive in nature.
To be able to RECOGNISE firstly the mean then the move away and then being able to extract the most from that shift----being the ultimate decider in profit.
As a Systems trader I find that quantity of information in and combination of methodology gives a result which I can then 'Place the odds" more in my favour---in exploiting these extremes.
In your case Wayne when exploiting these extremes in one or a few entities you can and do become familiar with both the mean AND the extremes in them.Experience will and does allow you to exploit those moves which we think we see as amazingly repetitive when in actual fact they are nothing more than a point on a chart expressed mathamatically. Repetition of a mathamatical extreme is simply a swing in the direction of the extreme which will not be perminent---as is the case with extremes in the other direction and the mean itself.---The ability to identify and exploit---being the point here rather than the analysis itself.
As an example Ive always been a Commodore man I bought 4 Fords for the Company and I cant believe how many Fords are on the road.
If I drive my Ford to a Ford dealer then I'll find lots more Fords.
If I see an accumulation of indicators that point to a move away or further away from the "mean" then chances are I'll be able to exploit it.
My way of handling the Efficient Market and Random Market theories!