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CZZ - Capilano Honey

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Interesting news item out late today:
Kerry Stokes AO of Seven fame has taken a 20% combined interest in CZZ.
In such illustrious company, maybe some topping-up is in order?
 
pixel said:
Interesting news item out late today:
Kerry Stokes AO of Seven fame has taken a 20% combined interest in CZZ.
In such illustrious company, maybe some topping-up is in order?
Click to expand...

Do you have a link? is this a new investment? or is it just talking about the investment he holds via Wroxby?

edit- I just read the announcement, Kerry's wroxby holdings has increased their stake from 19.58% to 20.58%, they have held the first 19.58% for a few years now.
 
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Are we finally on the way to crack $19? Or is it simply anticipation of the Half-yearly?
Either way, I hold.

 
pixel said:
Are we finally on the way to crack $19? Or is it simply anticipation of the Half-yearly?
Either way, I hold.

View attachment 85606
Click to expand...

I am looking forward to the half year report, since the capital raising and the expansion into honey production JV’s it has not been clear what the return on the expanded equity base will be.

I think as the Jv’s are bedded down, if they end up being a use of capital providing good return on equity we may see earning per share grow

But if returns from the jvs are Luke warm, earnings per share may stagnate for a while, and we may see a sell down.

I hold, and am waiting to see how this Jv’s Play out.
 
Hello all. I am a new partial owner of Capilano and just came across this wonderful thread (from a fundamentalist view point).

I have recently written about Capilano (see part 1 at nomadinvestorblog.wordpress.com/2018/01/14/is-there-money-in-capilano-honey-asx-czz-part-1/) (parts 2 and 3 can be accessed from part 1) which I believe are, in general, not inconsistent with the content here (I have gone through the whole thread), but would appreciate any thoughts or comments, especially on things that I missed out or are wrong about.

Also, I am an overseas investor and therefore am not familiar with the weather condition and honey situation in Australia. Does anyone know if calendar year 2017 H2 is a good honey season (with not-too-cold winter and decent rain in spring)?

The company seems positive on the FY2018 crop, with the FY2017 report saying "[t]he improved rain patterns in key production areas has led to a notable increase in honey supply in recent months, with our largest ever winter honey supply for many, many, years. Weather permitting, we remain very optimistic of the potential for increased honey production in the coming season from spring 2017" and AGM presentation stating "FY18 crop prospects are looking promising, with an above average crop forecast", and I just wanted to double check if this is still the case now.

Also, another question is is the honey harvest season in Australia (in areas that matter to Capilano) usually co-related with that in New Zealand (in areas that matter to Comvita). I am asking this because, if they are co-related, then I can use Comvita's commentaries on its honey season as a reference for Capilano's expected honey season, which is useful for someone not based in Australia.
 
Nomad Investor said:
Capilano's expected honey season
Click to expand...
even inside Australia, honey seasons differ between States, at least if you consider similar honey varieties.
As an example, there is currently a record bloom of Redgums in South-Western Australia, while Jarrah flowering has been disappointing. Then consider the devastating bush fires in Victoria and NSW.
Given all those, I wouldn't think there is a high correlation between Oz and NZ, at least not in the high-value specialty market.
 
The price chart of CZZ doesn't look very healthy. The price is sliding lower and an equal move abc shows a target near $10. I know the daily volume is very low and the MD thin. This means things can change very quickly with a big buyer or seller.

 
Just saw on Twitter that CZZ have lost 2 court cases recently, dont imagine that will help the SP.
 
galumay said:
Just saw on Twitter that CZZ have lost 2 court cases recently, dont imagine that will help the SP.
Click to expand...

They haven't lost anything, the guy they are suing told a sob story about him being a single parent and managed to get the case moved to Melbourne instead of Sydney, He then went on social media claiming to have had a big "win", it just shows how much this guy try to distort the truth.
 
Didn't they lose the Coles contract due to them now wanting imported honey? I thought that was why the company was on the nose.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...cocktail-off-the-shelves-20180705-p4zpq4.html

Also, the mite that has devastated bee populations overseas has been detected. like the oyster disease foreign agents bring in the problem to curb our advantages. If the mite takes hold it will be devastating.

https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/n...e/news-story/8d65c459b2e3da8d5813110af89e9f65

So a lot of risk, hence the fall in SP price.
 
Capilano is the Target of a bid from private equity to take the company private, for $20.06 / share.

I am still examining the details.
 
Might have been a small arbitrage opportunity for the quick moving!

Interesting premium in the TO offer given how soft the results were.
 
galumay said:
Might have been a small arbitrage opportunity for the quick moving!

Interesting premium in the TO offer given how soft the results were.
Click to expand...

The results were not soft when you take out some of the noise of prior years results, eg capital gains on assets sales that made the results look better etc.
 
I was taking out the capital gains, the comparison to 2016 makes it look pretty flat. Export sales really going nowhere, cashflow is weak.

Maybe my reading is too pessimistic?! That would explain the TO premium.
 
galumay said:
I was taking out the capital gains, the comparison to 2016 makes it look pretty flat. Export sales really going nowhere, cashflow is weak.

Maybe my reading is too pessimistic?! That would explain the TO premium.
Click to expand...

You also have to take into account the increased shares on issue, etc, I follow the company pretty closely, but considering the position now I am not really to keen to dive into a deep conversation on the analysis of it all.
 
Value Collector said:
Capilano is the Target of a bid from private equity to take the company private, for $20.06 / share.

I am still examining the details.
Click to expand...

Looks like there may be another competing bid.

In the last hour of trade on Friday some one started buying shares at $21.00 a $0.94 premium to the current offer.

Speculation in the media is saying the buying may be from Bega Cheese, it will be interesting to see if a counter offer is made soon.

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/capilano-soars-as-fundies-watch-for-interloper-20180831-h14smk
 

It’s confirmed, the buying on friday was Bega Cheese, the just released a substantial holder notice that shows they now own over 5% and have been buying since May.

I read their latest presentation over the weekend, and they state their goal is to continue building porftfolio of Australian brands.

So it seems like a good fit for them, last year they purchased Vegemite and the peanut Butter company formally owned by kraft, so they already have a presence in the spread market.

It will be interesting to see what happens from here, first bidders are touring Australia at the moment talking to bee keepers about the deal, so they seem very committed, they may end up having to raise their offer price.

Interesting situation.
 
The Age today.
The imported honey from China is adulterated, mixed with something else. Capilano have some ranges involved.
Where would be be without Fairfax? One of the last organisations doing real research (with the ABC but they haven't done much lately).
 
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