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- 28 May 2020
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It took me a while to find it again.
ELO, circa 2020-03-23.
I really was just looking for one with a long tail.
It took me a while to find it again.The chart snippet above what is its code?
but a mathematical conundrum resulted; Divide things 50:50 and you won't end up with half !Yeh ---I did this with a wife once ---very liberating.--
I promise I'm not trolling...honest question. Why not then? Would stop losses help with your biggest challenge? I intend to use them, at least in my AFL if not in the GTC market.Keeping with the thread. ,.. I don't employ stop losses.
For me, holding on too long is the biggest challenge (but that is another story).
I just don't. Any purchase represents an investment, of time, money and mental focus. I find I carry the status, and am sufficiently engaged to make adjustments along the way. (hence a SL would be an artificial constraint). Some things are out the door quicksmart; others I have held for decades.I promise I'm not trolling...honest question. Why not then? Would stop losses help with your biggest challenge? I intend to use them, at least in my AFL if not in the GTC market.
I just don't. Any purchase represents an investment, of time, money and mental focus. I find I carry the status, and am sufficiently engaged to make adjustments along the way. (hence a SL would be an artificial constraint). Some things are out the door quicksmart; others I have held for decades.
Works for me.
Problem with that is that you can’t be sure some conditions will be met on close
Eg if a price breaks above a certain level
Or above an indicator level
you’ll get amazingly false results if you set to zero on most systems you can’t look ahead until you can see ahead
a system will record everything that works but none that don’t it won’t see them
SL in a weekly system can be backtested:I was put onto this thread by a friend and have read it "cover to cover".
One thing I was planning to do in all my future buys is put an ISL order into the market when I open the trade. However, in this thread I read some mixed reviews on that strategy.
I suppose this approach can't be properly backtested. For example, say you have a weekly trading system and your ISL triggers on a Wednesday. That could never be backtested. Ok, perhaps it could with some "fancy" coding: a daily system that only trades on a particular day but triggers stops daily, with the GTFO stop triggered on the low. But even that doesn't account for the fact you probably only have EOD data feed.
But is there anything inherently wrong with setting a INITIAL stop loss, based on your buy price, into the market? You hope your stock goes up, and the trailing stop loss would prevent the ISL/GTFO loss to ever trigger. But if it tanks say 10% (or whatever your risk planning allows) straight away, then you made a bad purchase and you're out. If you find your in-the-market stops often get you out of eventual winners, is it possible your ISL is too tight?
I really want to implement proper risk management strategy so my "dog" stocks are shot as puppies (that image is for you @frugal.rock along with your festering cankers thread!).
In summary, what are your thoughts on entering an in-market, good-til-cancelled ISL/GTFO stop loss for every buy?
Edit: I did find this related post: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/stop-losses-when-to-use.33459/.
Still, if you have anything to add re: my post above, please do so.
Norgate Data Updater provides scheduled updates, you can trade MOC based on the scheduled 3.00PM prices, available at 3.20PM.
antong the worst ??SL in a weekly system can be backtested:
Algo in words:
if low of the week is below SL,then sell at SL or if antong the worst case scenario sell at low of week...
I really like Bandy's stuff. It appeals to my numerate nature, even if I don't get it the first (or third) time. And he's highly respected, so his algorithms and approaches aren't just for my pointy head, but actually work.I can trade live data
I can take an intelligent punt on the close and will get it right most times
but if you set a system to zero lag the results will be 100 %.correct as it
won’t show those that failed —- because it knows the closing price!
Takes a while to understand this but when you do it will be
like turning on a light.
in the meantime start trading a zero lag system you’ll soon be
scratching your head and toping up your equity.
Chapter 7, Entries
Market on Close of Action Bar
My research shows that the signals from a good system should be acted upon as soon as possible. If a system reliably forecasts the direction of price from the close of one day to the close of the next day, about one-third of that price change happens in the overnight market. Entering MOC of the action bar captures that profit - entering NDO misses it.
<Then elsewhere he describes a "MOC Order". But then later he says...>
Invariably, someone will point out that many of the signals depend on the closing price, and it is not possible to trade at the closing price if the close has already happened. Quantitative Trading Systems discusses this in more detail, but there are several ways to accomplish trading at the close of the action bar:
It is easy to get confused about what is known at what time, and what happens when.
- Use a real-time data feed, note the price just before the close, perform the calculations, enter a market order or a limit-on-close order.
- Wait for the close, perform the calculations, trade in the after-hours market. Many EFTs and surrogates for them trade 15 minutes longer that regular hours.
- Pre-compute the price at which a signal will be generated. Depending on the data required for the calculation, this can be done just before the close or, or as early as the previous evening if you are using daily bars. Place conditional orders to be executed if the closing price satisfies the conditions. See the section in Anticipating Action below.
The stop loss must be placed at a level that compliments your trading strategy. If you're a pattern trader then the SL is placed where the pattern fails. If you're a BO trader then place the SL at a level that indicates the BO has failed to go on with it.
Initial SL's must be placed outside the normal price noise for the time frame you're trading.
I've still got my training wheels on but that's what I'm thinking right now. But it would depend on the style of trading I'm doing, plus supported by backtests.or your calculated trade risk level.
Problem with that analogy is that most bounced back hard this year.I lost an average of 30% on those trades. If I had left them all to run until last friday, I would have made an average of over +100% with only one loss out of the seven.
Problem with that analogy is that most bounced back hard this year.
But one has to be careful generalizing because in a bad year when the markets may continue to decline month after month, you'd be glad to have cut the losses and limit the damage to 30%.
These were just the trades I was "kicked out of" on intraday drops and, yes, I was comparing my outcome with the price at close on 27 November. I can see that my auto-stops were set far too tightly for spec stocks and that my trading "strategy" was hopeless. I was getting caught out on quite normal pullbacks and spec volatility. I also had too many stupidly small positions in a misguided effort to spread my risk. Even now, I would not have let all of those losing positions run (although I do regret bailing out of FYI at that stage). These days I have fewer, larger positions and don't set technical stops. Instead, I look at why I entered the trade and assess whether a drop means anything has materially changed in terms of the fundamentals or the market. I am also having a lot more good luck.Thanks Jack.
By last Friday I assume you mean 27Nov, not "the" last Friday after your stop loss hit. Depending on when you bought, that could be a LOT of time to recover.
This is all great in hindsight. But at the time of the stop, you didn't know if the stock would have continued downward, so the stop could have saved you from big losses. After all, you had those orders in the market for a reason. I assume it was to prevent a loss greater than you had tolerance for in your risk management.
If you don't mind doing a tiny bit of work, could you look at your charts for those 7 positions that were sold, and let me know if they sold due to an intraday low or due to a close below the stop? IOW, if you had manually executed that stop at EOD after market close?
Note the difference between the two example stops in my screenshot
View attachment 115569
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