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CUE - CUE Energy

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Hey funny bunny

I was just messing around with figures for future projects for CUE.

Please correct me if I am wrong but here it goes...

They have three or four major projects:

Sampang PSC - Indonesia 15% interest
Oyong field - currently producing
8000 barrels a day, cue gets (15%) of it
reserves max 10 millon barrels so maybe till 2010

Conservatively I say that CUE makes $40 per barrel of oil profit ( estimating that oil stays over $100 a barrel) and they get 1200 barrels a day for 300 days ( factored in a month or two for drill downtime or unexpected delays)

$40*(1200*300) = $14.4 million
There are 630 million shares
14.4/630 = .02cents per share

PNG - SE Gobe field 3% - currently producing
6000 barrols a day, cue shared 200 barrels of oil per day
reserves is till 2013

200 * 300 days = 60000 barrels of oil a year
$40 * 60000 = 2.4Million
2.4/630 million shares = .003 cents per share

also Cobra -1 on the murray Deep could have 30-40 million barrels ( cue has a 10% share)
.... Not sure if there is any oil here.... or when they can produce if they do but they are drilling right now.. should know soon

NZ - Maari Oil Field 5%
estimate 50 million barrels reserves
35000 barrels of oil per day, cue has (5%)
start producing start of 2009

The forcast for cue was start producing Q3, ( i really dont think thats possible as all their projects have been late so lets say they start producing start of 2009)

35000 barrel * 5% = 1750 barrels a day
1750 * 300days = 525000 barrels a year
$40 * 525000 barrels = $21million
21/630 million shares = .03 cents per share

So if we add everything up
.03 (nz) + .02(indonesia) + .003(png) = 5cents...

Overall...
WIth the current sp about 20cents.
I am working with very conservative figures. Two projects in production right now and another one very soon to be producing(Maari).
CUe looks to have upside since they have another 5-6 projects out there...

Whats everyone think, or have I just lost the plot?

Any constructive comments would be helpful
 
Very nice work Urgalzmine,

I've been trying to get this very message across for a year and a half now in one form or another!

Just a couple of other things that should be considered with your comments that i think are crucial.

1. SPC's continual accumulation of stock, to my knowledge they are still buying and soaking up shares. This will have an impact on price sooner or later.

2. LPG/Gas - you forgot the gas. I dont have the figures on me but production is scheduled to begin in 2008 and by end of 2009 it ramps up significantly.

3. Potential discovery, you mentioned Cobra-1, they have several others in the pipeline. Once again, its likely that sooner or later one will hit the jack pot.

Apologies for not backing up with figures as you have, its been a long day and my noggin aint up to crunching numbers or pulling information from doucmentation.

It will be good to have you around, our numbers are growing, maybe its a sign the word is finally getting out!!!!

JW
 
hahaha

I am just learning with these spec shares I just wish I had more $$$$.


Yes I forgot about the gas areas.. I should produce figures out soon.. the only problem with CUE is the amount of shares out there. I havent bought any CUE shares yet as I dont have , OP killed all my spec shares lol

I hear u bought at 12.5 cents... yummy
 
Correct Urgalzmine, i am currently holding 470,389 shares at average of 12.7 cents. It was 12.5 cents but i got stopped on some a few months ago and rebought them at a higher price.

The past few weeks has seen the sellers drying up, volume is minimal and those holding are reluctant to sell down. Could also be the first real signs of the SPC effect. As shown today, anyone who wants volume has to pay the asking price, sellers in control at the moment.

High oil price also contributing, i'd say.

It will be interesting to keep a close on on things over the next week or two and see if we can push up significantly. I think the big break out, when it does happen could be strong as we have gone sideways for some time now.

As mentioned previously by others, there is a massive cup and handle on the chart which is a bullish signal.

Just on the gas, from memory, my understanding is that a contract has been signed whereby the Indonesians have agreed to buy all the gas from Oyong. So sales are guaranteed, just got to get it out of the ground.

There are lots of shares out there but remember, the top 20 holders control over 62% of the company. SPC is looking to take a large position in this company and they have the capital to do it. I would think many like myself would be reluctant to sell at these prices knowing what 2009 is going to bring.

Just gauge there performance over the past two months against ohter companies on the ASX, they have held their ground well and i believe the best is yet to come.

Its got to, i have some figures to present to Treefrog either later this year or in 2009. Promised him i would demonstrate that i could turn a hansome profit from this stock and i am damn confident of doing it. Best thing is, all i have had to do is sit and wait......................

Look forward to your gas calculations.

JW
 
Oil has hit $117.00 a barrel, payday is coming.................

Last weeks finish was very positive, i am still considering a trade on this if we get a break and become over bought, next week may just provide the opportunity.

Will be looking to set some tight stops if the price does spike.

Oh baby, things are slotting into line perfectly!!!!

JW very cool
 
Hey Funny Bunny

so pissed off with this junky computer it crashed on me while I was typing this out

Projects for GAS

Codes:
BCF = Billion cubic feet per year
1000 Megajoules(MJ) = 1gigajoule(GJ)
Consumers(me and u ) get charged $.01 per Megajoules or $10per GJ
thousand cubic feet (Mcf) = approx 1GJ
THerefore 1Billion Cubic Feet = 1million GJ
If this is the case then $10 per GJ = $10 Million dollars for every 1Billion Cubic Feet.

However its gas at a wholesale level, so lets divide ($10 per GJ) by a third.
Lets use $3 per GJ at the price CUE sells its gas for.
This means CUe will sell 1billion Cubic of gas for $30 million.


AUSTRALIA
AC/P20 permit, 120 BCF Maple/Cash (Aust) Cue has a 20% interest and there is a five year feasibility study undertaken, probably produce around 2012

permits T/37P and T/38P, 2D seismic data in progress should know end of April 08 what reserves are there. ( cue interest 20% and 50% respectively)

PNG
PRL9, 120 BCF Barikewa (PNG) Cue 15% interest, Santos and oil search 42% each. start to drill mid 2009

4 BCF SE Gobe (PNG)
unknown production date

PRL8 , 97 BCF Kimu (PNG) Cue 10% interest, oil search 60% mosaic 28%. unknown production date


Indonesia, Joint Ventures THE INTERESTING BIT IS HERE !!!
Santos 45%
SPC 40%
Cue 15%

12 BCF 2P Oyong (Indonesia) Production in mid 2009
Contract to sell PT Indonesia Power for the entire gas reserves of the Oyong field

Wortel -1, 12 BCF Wortel (Indonesia) CUE 13% interest. gas produce in 2010
Test results indicate flow rate of 18.5 million cubic of gas.

Now according to Cue's annual forcast 2007, they only have two gas fields that will produce by 2014. They are OYONG and WORTEL.

On average Oyong will be producing in 2009 at a rate of 2.5BCF per year for five years.
using our calculations above of 1BCF = $30 million dollars.
$30million times 2.5BCF = $75million dollars for 2009
75million/630million shares = 12cents per share

In 2010 the Wortel gas should come online at a rate of 2.5BCF per year for five years. Using our calculations above of 1BCF = $30 million dollars.
$30miilion Times 2.5BCF = $75million dollars for 2010
75million/630million shares = 12cents per share
Now in 2010 we have a few projects that should be online. They are:

Oyong gas $.12 per share
Oyung oil $.02 per share
Wortel $.12 per share
Glebe oil $.003 per share
Maari Oil Field $.03 per share

So lets add this all up $.293 cents per share in 2010, so if you add a P/E ratio of say 5, in 2010 we would think the SP should be around $1??

Please tell me if I have made a mistake.. I may of missed a zero or added a zero somewhere

Just be in mind that Cue's forcast are always late... you be the judge...

oh I dont hold Cue...
 
damn i made some mistakes there, calculation should be $1BCF = $3mill


Oyong gas $.01 per share
Oyung oil $.02 per share
Wortel $.01 per share
Glebe oil $.003 per share
Maari Oil Field $.03 per share

Total .073 cents in total... My bad .. If we use a P/E ratio of 5 maybe the price should be $.365? in 2010.. I dunno to many zeros lol


what u guys think
 



Hi folks,

CUE ... has 2 positive cycles coming out to play this week,
which may be enough to give this one a lift ...

Updated CUE chart attached, shows the early stages of an anticipated
breakout from the obvious cup and handle pattern, mentioned in the post
above, on 17032008.

have a great weekend

paul



=====
 

Attachments

  • CUEupdate18042008.pdf
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Pretty sure $10 million for every BCF (Billion Cubic Feet) is correct.

I thought that was the wholesale price, the retailers then onsell to the consumer???? No need to divide by 3??

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/NG/W

If that is correct, then you would need to multiply all your prices by 3.33, therefore gas revenue would go to 21cents not 7.3cents.

Multiply by 5 for your 5 x P/E gives you $1.00, then add the oil.

I think that is correct, but can someone confirm this.

This assumes no input from other finds, with a few exploration joint ventures currently underway it is possible more reserves could be proved up, i'd say likely.

Another thing, dont completely discount Jeruk, this one could prove to be a producer yet.

These are the reasons why SPC has been buying this stock for some time now, they had 88 million shares and 14% of the company when the last announcement (change in substantial holdings) was made, sure bet they have more now. Next announcement must be due soon.

I've been banging on about this accumulation for months, its not a case of if, but when, the wider market wakes up and sees what is going on here.

Anyways, you all know my opinion.

Thanks Urgalzmine, look forward to more info from you.


JW
 
Whoops, stuffed that up.

Multiply by 3 for gas revenue only.

Brings total oil and gas to about 12cents, then multiply by 5 for PE, total is about 60 cents.

Apologies for above...............
 
The reason why I use the $3 per GJ instead of $10GJ is that I always look conservatively. If you look at your gas bill u get charged for .01 for 1 megajoule.

I divide the GJ by 3 is because u need to factor in costs and there is no way CUE would be able to sell gas at $10 per GJ

I didnt factor in other projects because they come online for some time, no way they will be ready by 2010.

The Jeruk project has now been abandoned..

anywaz will see how it goes ... My opinion is to wait till 2010 when all these projects i mentioned above come online..

but I think the reason why their are some activity in cue is to do with the punters on drilling at Cobra -1 and T/37P and T/38P, if this shows some good drill results of around 30 million barrels of Oil and/or gas, the sp will prob head north. IF there is nothing there the sp will go back down.

I might take a punt since I did all this bloody work, lol
 
Sampang PSC - Indonesia 15% interest
Oyong field - currently producing
8000 barrels a day, cue gets (15%) of it
reserves max 10 millon barrels so maybe till 2010

Conservatively I say that CUE makes $40 per barrel of oil profit ( estimating that oil stays over $100 a barrel) and they get 1200 barrels a day for 300 days ( factored in a month or two for drill downtime or unexpected delays)

$40*(1200*300) = $14.4 million
There are 630 million shares
14.4/630 = .02cents per share


not sure on your figures ?? 15 % would be $15-16 with oil at $100 plus..why would they be entitled to a 40 % cut of the profit of each barrel

not trying to be a smart **** just searching for an oil stock to take advantage of present market conditions
cheers Countryboy
 

Hey Country dude

I think you have miss read. The tenement Sampang PSC, cue only has 15%
They produce 8000 barrels of oil a day cue gets 15% of the oil which is 1200 barrels per day.

the reason why I use $40 per barrel of oil as a conservative price, as there needs to be other factored costs. Like transportation, workers, administration, tax... etc...

no company can sell their oil at $100 per barrel as pure profit, well legally.
 
Just for the record as promised for Treefrog,

i said i would post any transactions made by me on this stock and today i took 40,000 shares out of the market at 25.5 cents.

Profit $5,350.00 including brokerage - tax still to be paid at 22%

Locking in a few profits.

Tomorrow should be an interesting day, see if we can increase volume further and break 27 cents.

Best of luck to all of you who are on board.

JW
 

Yes I think there should be lots of upside to this.

permits T/37P and T/38P has completed 2D seismic, will know the results in mid july 2008. refer to ann today

shares jumped today because of announcement...
 

nice call on the cup and handle pattern paul you appear to have a good t/a bent - all gets a bit cloudy with the tealeaves in the bottom stuff though

a little info for the excited bunnies brigade so they can follow the move

from stockcharts:
.
 

Attachments

  • cuphandle-jbl.png
    20.4 KB · Views: 69
The FPSO - "Raroa" - arrived in Wellington Harbour this morning and is currently " in the stream".
Presumably it will be off to Taranaki in early course.

 
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