But I wonder if our treasurers are beholden to outside influences.
Unfortunately, that is what is consistently disregarded or not understood by the electorate, come voting time. Economic booms and busts are inevitably attributed to the encumbents, with scant regard to the global situation.
Fraser did not save Australia from the stagflation that resulted from two oil shocks during Whitlam's term. Hawke did not end the drought that had been weighing on the economy at the time, and Costello was not responsible for massive boom we've benefited from over the last decade or so.
Subsequently, I tend to focus less on the short term oscillation of the economic indicators, and more on a government's structural changes and spending patterns that enhance or diminish prosperity, within a global framework. On that score, whilst Keating was not a fiscal saint, he whipped Costello by a country mile for economic reform, for the reasons I outlined previously.
The 2-3% inflation target, for example, was not a global trend. Rather it was Jenny George, Martin Ferguson, and Bill Kelty going to Keating with the proposal, argueing that that was the socially responsible thing to do. They all trottled of to the Reserve, who adopted it. The rest of the first world also adopted what was an Australian initiative.
Fiscally, the coalition also has a crook record. Why would a government, receiving rivers of gold from the boom, slash investment in future prosperity through cuts to education and CSIRO and other infrastructure, in favour of imortant initiatives such fishing museums, the invading of countries for no reason, over the top pork barrelling and a few squillion on Coalition advertising, which dwarfed any previous government of either persuasion.
Although, I'm obviously very critical of the way the country was mismanaged for over a decade, it's not all about Liberal-bad, Labor-good. In my previous post, I alluded to my concerns regarding Labor's first budget. They would, however, have to work hard to make a bigger mess of it over time, to match the previous mismanagement. Time will tell and the facts will speak for themselves. Here in NSW, for example, we have a state Labor government that has an atrocious record, by any measure. The only reason they are still there is that the alternative has been overun by the christian hard right with NFI.
In short, at a federal level, it would be a social and economic disaster to have Costello as PM. At a NSW state level, we're in dire need of a credible alternative. Thankfully, Costello is highly unlikely to get up, and would have to wait two terms regardless, based on what we know historically, and NSW Labor are on the critically endangered list.