Correction or crash?
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Timmy
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If there is going to be a poll the definitions need to be correct first.
A correction is when you lose money.
A crash is when I lose money.
A correction is when you lose money.
A crash is when I lose money.
white_goodman
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im crying atm lol it hasnt been a good week or so
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All the smart people haven't logged on and have gone out for the day
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white_goodman
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It's only money
yeh but as a full time student all my savings are in shares, tho in truth im in it for long term not short term... just trying to get as much cash atm as posssible for when the market bottoms out and starts rising again
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For some stocks, it's certainly a crash.......and it is getting very ugly for some very, very good businesses.......heaps of value being created.......Take a business like Just Group.....it is for all purposes firing on all cylinders but consumer descretionary not flavour of the month and boom.......5.40 now below $4.........I thought I made a bird selling last year round 4.9 as I watched it go up, but valuation always finds its level........there are some heavy losses out there, some justified, some not
wayneL
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Haha! This is the best definition of a crash I've ever heard.
Sean K
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What is a crash? 20% drop?
Have a few % to go yet. Maybe <5000 is crash.
Some value emerging you'd maybe consider.
Those who have held some in reserve may find some opportunities in the coming days/weeks/months...
Have a few % to go yet. Maybe <5000 is crash.
Some value emerging you'd maybe consider.
Those who have held some in reserve may find some opportunities in the coming days/weeks/months...
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What is a crash? 20% drop?
Have a few % to go yet. Maybe <5000 is crash.
Some value emerging you'd maybe consider.
Those who have held some in reserve may find some opportunities in the coming days/weeks/months...
doing exactly that.. plenty of nice prices alright..
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August was more like a crash - especially on that day where the ASX freaked out and hit something like 5500 for a period. What's happening here is that the markets are pricing in negative world growth... this is completely unjustified IMO as the emerging markets will power ahead this year, China, India and Russia, and Brazil's GDP growth will continue to be profitable to our resource sector, which will have flow on effects to domestic housing, retail, and other markets. The same pattern as in previous years, except that the US will be a dark cloud lingering over us - so perhaps more frequent periods of volatility. Last year we had February and August, this year may be January (that's in the bag!!! , May, August and November (who the hell knows???) . Even if the markets returned to Dec 07 levels, that would represent a nice gain from here.
, May, August and November (who the hell knows???) . Even if the markets returned to Dec 07 levels, that would represent a nice gain from here.
Logique
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Crash or correction?
IF we hit XAO 5000 the dividend % payouts on stocks will be enormous, must entice some buying at that point. If it goes < 5000 yes I would think that's a crash.
If this is an unwinding of the multi-year bull market, back to long term trend (about 4000 - 4500 - chartists?), then it could be thought of as a correction back to established uptrend. However I'm not convinced it would completely unwind to that extent.
IF we hit XAO 5000 the dividend % payouts on stocks will be enormous, must entice some buying at that point. If it goes < 5000 yes I would think that's a crash.
If this is an unwinding of the multi-year bull market, back to long term trend (about 4000 - 4500 - chartists?), then it could be thought of as a correction back to established uptrend. However I'm not convinced it would completely unwind to that extent.
Copy quote from President Harry Truman I'm afraid.
It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose your own. — Harry Truman
I just happen to read a lot on historic stuff and especially financial market so when history repeat itself I'm there to benefit
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It is not easy to answer your question.
Obviously we are seeing a correction, and we are heading for a crash in percentage terms. I would suggest we are watching a gradual crash unfold.
In my opinion we should see some sideways consolidation around the 11000 mark on the Dow.
The next question should be, are we in a Bear market?
For mine, I think the US may well be entering a Bear market, but I believe we will find a bottom a little sooner. The biggest risk for our market is if the credit crunch starts to drastically bite here. I know it is biting me, and I am aware of plenty of people living off credit cards and massively geared. I seriously think our market will find a bottom around the 5000 mark. Whether it goes sideways or up from there is the gozillion dollar question.
Obviously we are seeing a correction, and we are heading for a crash in percentage terms. I would suggest we are watching a gradual crash unfold.
In my opinion we should see some sideways consolidation around the 11000 mark on the Dow.
The next question should be, are we in a Bear market?
For mine, I think the US may well be entering a Bear market, but I believe we will find a bottom a little sooner. The biggest risk for our market is if the credit crunch starts to drastically bite here. I know it is biting me, and I am aware of plenty of people living off credit cards and massively geared. I seriously think our market will find a bottom around the 5000 mark. Whether it goes sideways or up from there is the gozillion dollar question.
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Agreed, there was significantly more panic on August 16th, XAO was down more than 300 pts at one stage.
I doubt the market is pricing in negative growth for the BRIC countries. I have not heard, even from the most bearish commentators that anyone is forecasting that China could go from an 11% growth rate to negative. However keep in mind if China's growth rate were to fall to say 6% that growth slowdown would be akin to a recession.
What does this actually mean? Quantify profitable. Do you mean more profitable than in previous years, about the same? I've mentioned a number of times on other threads that mining company profits have been falling for several quarters. In a global slowdown (not recession) do the greater risks lie to the upside or the downside for mining company profits?
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