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Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
Jump to new
Thanks for the timely advice. Can I offer some to your goodself. Sometimes you just need to look in a mirror.
As I tried to point out, the drastic drop in hospital admissions is far more important than how many people got the disease, how virulent it is etc.
Mick
 
The "Gold Standard " wont release the health advice



"The Business of Covid: Gladys Berejiklian hides “the health advice” as pandemic threatens Sydney"​


Despite continual claims she acted on “the health advice”, despite her fervid pleas to the NSW public to follow “the health advice”, Gladys Berejiklian has refused to disclose the health advice. However, the NSW Premier has let slip that advice from unnamed business associates of the government has played a part in her handling of the pandemic and the Sydney lockdown. Callum Foote and Michael West investigate.



The Business of Covid: Gladys Berejiklian hides "the health advice" as pandemic threatens Sydney - Michael West

Despite claims she acted on health advice, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian conceded advice from business was key her handling of the pandemic
www.michaelwest.com.au
 
Nothing to see here

NSW got seven times Victoria’s lockdown subsidies: What’s the Scam?​


The scam is that we are not “all in this together”. The Northern Beaches of Sydney are in a blue ribbon Liberal seat and Victoria is a Labor state.

NSW got four times Victoria's lockdown subsidies: What's the Scam? - Michael West

The Federal Government gave NSW Northern Beaches residents seven times the lockdown support that it gave Victorians during lockdown. What's the scam?
www.michaelwest.com.au
 
I pointed out that your analytical skills were not good, so I will again help you.
Hospitalisations in the UK have been trending upwards for 2 months:


The numerical decline from January's peak has been due to vaccination numbers increasing combined with UK's mitigation measures, while the infectiousness of the Delta strain has contributed to the rise since May.
While hospitalisation data is handy, it's not the full picture. For example, over 80% of Victoria's covid deaths occurred in aged care facilities.
Your idea that hospitalisation numbers are more important than the actual number of covid affected people does not stack up. If our death rate is 2.9% (which it is on today's count), then if total infection numbers increase, we can expect deaths to increase based on the rate and not on where the deaths occur. Moreover, the virulence of any particular strain will affect the death rate.
We do not have decent data on Delta variant virulence, but early studies show hospitalisation rates increase for it, and that it is increasingly affecting much younger people.
On this basis Australia's prioritisation of vaccinations based on age need to be revisited, and greater emphasis placed on those with occupations involving significant public contact and travel.
 
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To bag me out on my data analytical skills is a bit rich.
My quote was on the original graph you supplied, and my analysis was perfectly acceptable on what you put up. There was a huge drop in hospital rates.
To then come along with another piece of data not orginally shown and then suggest I am incapabale of data analysis is disingenuous to say the least.
The new graph you did show has a blip at the end which looks suspiciously like it is flattening.
I would want a lot more data before I would consider that a new trend.
As I said, you need too look at your own analytical skills.
Mick
 
Please read what I wrote and stop defending your unusual analysis.
There is a wealth of data available if you choose to provide meaningful commentary, so you should consider using it in future.
Instead, without any justification you proclaim the importance of hospitalisation data over numbers of infections and virulence.
When shown that's not a good idea you play the man.
The UK situation was bleak, and offers us a picture of how bad things can get if we don't take covid seriously. I do not know what you are trying to show as @bellenuit has previously set you straight on data interpretation.
Would you like to clarify whatever it is you think important, unless you are intending to hang your hat on the idea that we just focus on hospitalisations?
 
Seems like Melbourne going into snap lockdown at midnight.

The tipping point has been the discovery, to date, of two new infections from the MCG game last Saturday.

So these are infections picked up in a open environment and not necessarily close to the initial infected person. So almost certainly there will be others infected in that crowd and they have all may been active with family, friends and the community since last Saturday.

Of course if they have been following the news and advice they will have isolated themselves won't they ? That would be the hope - but I'm not holding my breath.

This Delta version is deadly contagious. Thank heavens the AFL footballers have fled in time...

Victoria to enter five-day snap lockdown as more COVID-19 cases recorded

All of Victoria will go into a five-day snap lockdown from midnight tonight to curb the growing COVID outbreak.
www.abc.net.au
 
Interesting to see the rings of contacts from the Delta Virus.

Scary how the infection has moved so quickly to the 5th ring

There are '7 rings of contact tracing' across the Victorian outbreaks, Jeroen Weimar says​

 
This looks interesting, we should get some and give it to family members of those with Covid

  • Patients with a self-administered nasal spray application found to have reduced SARS-CoV-2 log viral load by more than 95% in infected participants within 24 hours of treatment, and by more than 99% in 72 hours
  • Trial concluded that treatment accelerated clearance of SARS-CoV-2 by a factor of 16-fold versus a placebo

UK Clinical Trial Confirms SaNOtize’s (Israel) Breakthrough Treatment for COVID-19 - Israël Science Info

Biotech company SaNOtize R&D Corp., Ashford and St Peter’s Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust in Surrey, UK, and Berkshire and Surrey Pathology Services, UK, today announced results of clinical trials indicating that SaNOtize’s Nitric Oxide Nasal Spray (NONS) represents a safe and effective...
www.israelscienceinfo.com

UK Clinical Trial Confirms SaNOtize’s Breakthrough Treatment for COVID-19

Biotech company SaNOtize Research & Development Corp., (SaNOtize), Ashford and St Peter’s Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust in Surrey, UK, and Berksh
www.businesswire.com
 
Bloomberg recently rated the USA as the most resilient covid nation:
If ever there was a case of imbecilic use of data, Bloomberg nailed it!
Aside from arbitrary cutoff rates and measurement time scales, the methodologies for ranking allocation appear nonsensical when not plain wrong.
For example, Bloomberg's covid status scores maintain the USA in better/best ratings despite comparatively abysmal performance.
Then under universal health care Australia ranks only marginally better than the USA, while China, with over 95% health care cover ranks significantly worse.
Better metrics would include employment (as hours worked), fixed asset investment, industrial production, and capacity utilisation.
 
From conspiracy theory to https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/wo...-rule-out-covid-lab-leak-20210716-p58a7g.html
Not that i expect any excuse or even just common sense from the scared mad crowd shouting wolves at every sneeze.
I think we in australia should name our own varianti
t is so dangerous that any infected detection is send to hospital and then in ICU for pictures opportunity.
Around 600 new cases in the last week, and 182 in hospital as of this morning figure so roughly..(i know you could be in hospital 3 months etc but not here) nearly a third of weekly cases in hospital..
This new variant is more like ebola...
To compare with the frog country which only has the indian strain
35000 new cases in the last week,
7000 are hospitalised overall
So 1/5...and we have numerous long term ones..
Aussie go go go..

Obviously irony...i do not want to stress everyone.
But seriously,the good part is that the fatality rate is going down steadily. The spread more kill less of virus life cycle... even in India where with a younger population, but horrendous hospital care, we are well below 2 %
 
One of the stories going around has been the relentless push of Invermectin as a COVID cure. That particular idea has just taken a hiding when a Med Student did an analysis of one of the biggest studies around it's effectiveness and (very simply) discovered the study was a total fraud.

The data also looked suspicious to Lawrence, with the raw data apparently contradicting the study protocol on several occasions.

“The authors claimed to have done the study only on 18-80 year olds, but at least three patients in the dataset were under 18,” Lawrence said.

“The authors claimed they conducted the study between the 8th of June and 20th of September 2020, however most of the patients who died were admitted into hospital and died before the 8th of June according to the raw data. The data was also terribly formatted, and includes one patient who left hospital on the non-existent date of 31/06/2020.”

There were other concerns.

“In their paper, the authors claim that four out of 100 patients died in their standard treatment group for mild and moderate Covid-19,” Lawrence said. “According to the original data, the number was 0, the same as the ivermectin treatment group. In their ivermectin treatment group for severe Covid-19, the authors claim two patients died, but the number in their raw data is four.”

Huge study supporting ivermectin as Covid treatment withdrawn over ethical concerns

The preprint endorsing ivermectin as a coronavirus therapy has been widely cited, but independent researchers find glaring discrepancies in the data
www.theguardian.com
 
qldfrog said:
But seriously,the good part is that the fatality rate is going down steadily. The spread more kill less of virus life cycle... even in India where with a younger population, but horrendous hospital care, we are well below 2 %
View attachment 127456
Click to expand...
Yet more claims by @qldfrog that are barely credible!
With increasing levels of vaccinations globally, better levels of pandemic preparedness, and more effective treatment regimes, we should have a reasonable expectation that case fatality rates would fall if the Delta variant was less deadly. But in May 2021 the world's CFR was 2.15% and in June 2.17%. Even @qldfrog's cherry picked example of India showed an increasing CFR after the worst effect of its pandemic.
Here's the CFR for selected nations and the world for 2021 when the Delta variant became the main disease:

Maybe the picture will change as more data becomes available but for now, given vaccination rates have ramped up in 2021, it is not unreasonable to infer the Delta strain might be slightly more virulent.
 
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Another take on COVID for Crafty people. (Perhaps the partner ?)

You and 9 friends are crafting. 1 person is using glitter.
How many projects now have glitter on them ?
 
rederob said:
Here's the latest data:
View attachment 127378
That translates to almost 14% being hospitalised, of which 17% end up in ICU.
Still early days so I hope the data on hospitalisations trends more towards the UK experience of below 10%.
Click to expand...

Wouldn't that data be corrupted by QLD moving all Covid cases into a dedicate hospital as a precautionary measure not on the basis that they medically would require hospitalisation.

Designated COVID-19 Hospital Network

To protect the health of the Queensland community, health workers and hospital system, a best practice approach to manage people diagnosed with COVID-19 is in place.
www.qld.gov.au
 
Definitely, and I will get to the "but" after the following point.
It's one of the many inconsistencies of State/Territory approach, and skews the data so that hospitalisations appear worse than medical diagnosis would warrant.
But, that means then the proportion of hospitalisations needing treatment at the ICU should be considerably higher.
It has no impact on our case fatality rate.

(nb., interpolating the data suggests Qld would likely only have a medical need for about 6 hospitalisations rather than 50 as shown today)
 
Good pick-up.
 
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