Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

I want to go on record as thinking the proposition of 50 to 100 million deaths as a direct consequence of covid-19 (ie no other serious comorbidities) as absolutely ludicrous.

It would mean an overall death rate of 1 to 1 and a half percent if every single person on the planet caught it.

That is not what the data is showing us.

wayneL said:

I want to go on record as thinking the proposition of 50 to 100 million deaths as a direct consequence of covid-19 (ie no other serious comorbidities) as absolutely ludicrous.

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Let's assume an average mortality rate of 2%, which I think is fair. 2.5 billion infections should result in at least 50 million deaths. COVID-19 would need to be able to spread unchecked in the absence of a vaccine and with unchanged mortality rates.

I don't think a third of the world's population being eventually infected in those circumstances is out of the realm of possibilities. Infections are already in excess of 53,000,000 and that is known infections. Deaths are at 1.3 million. The infection rate appears to be accelerating.

If the USA, which is a first world country, can't stop COVID-19 from spreading unchecked, what hope does the developing world have?

I may be a little pessimistic, but we're dealing with a lot of unknowns here and a worst case scenario (which could include continual viral mutation and re-infection) could be much worse than we want to believe.

greggles said:

If the USA, which is a first world country, can't stop COVID-19 from spreading unchecked, what hope does the developing world have?

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Really ? The US could have controlled the spread of COVID much more effectively than it did. It was purely the political decision by the Trump to undermine all the advice and preparation the had in favour of , essentially, ignoring the problem.

In terms of stopping the virus from spreading there have been successes with China, Taiwan, Sth Korea, Uruguay, Australia , New Zealand demonstrating that the virus is containable. It is contagious but clearly can be stopped.

I found this analysis of COVID transmission to be useful

basilio said:

Really ? The US could have controlled the spread of COVID much more effectively than it did. It was purely the political decision by the Trump to undermine all the advice and preparation the had in favour of , essentially, ignoring the problem.

In terms of stopping the virus from spreading there have been successes with China, Taiwan, Sth Korea, Uruguay, Australia , New Zealand demonstrating that the virus is containable. It is contagious but clearly can be stopped.

I found this analysis of COVID transmission to be useful

What A Summer Of COVID-19 Taught Scientists About Indoor vs. Outdoor Transmission

Here we are, almost eight months into this pandemic, and it’s like you can’t even invite more than 150 people to sit next to each other unmasked in your rose ga…

fivethirtyeight.com

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USA: This is a discussion about what has happened. Not what may have happened. The reality is that COVID-19 is out of control in the USA.

China: Frankly, I don't believe anything the CCP says. They are an authoritarian regime that cannot be trusted and I'm of the view that their numbers are not accurate.

Australia & NZ: Isolated islands with relatively small populations.

Taiwan: Island.

South Korea: Done well, but cases are starting to spike there again.

Uruguay: That's great to hear.

Meanwhile COVID-19 is tearing through India, Pakistan, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Colombia, Russia, Ukraine, and most of Europe including the UK.

It is very clear that globally the curve is nowhere close to being flattened.

I don't think a 2% mortality rate is a fair assumption at all when the data is analysed without bias, especially seeing in many have those deaths covid-19 causative or at least not the main causative factor.

This is making the true average mortality difficult to determine, but I would stake my last dollar that it is massively lower than 2%, and quite happy to go on record here as saying so.

wayneL said:

I don't think a 2% mortality rate is a fair assumption at all when the data is analysed without bias, especially seeing in many have those deaths covid-19 causative or at least not the main causative factor.

This is making the true average mortality difficult to determine, but I would stake my last dollar that it is massively lower than 2%, and quite happy to go on record here as saying so.

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Taking a wild guess it is about the same as the Flu. So we are back to where we started.

I hoped it was greater than 2%, it might save humans from extinction, to many of us occupying the same environment. Time to cull the bacteria/virus - humans for the sake of the other millions of life forms that need this planet to survive.

Fair enough. We shall see how things turn out. Personally, I hope that we don't get anywhere near 50 million dead. Much will depend on whether or not we get a successful vaccine. I hope we do. I have no interest in suffering, death, and economic destruction.

But in the absence of a vaccine I remain very pessimistic as to the eventual outcome.

Finally someone is actually talking about Vitamin D, (according to research it does work)
You may need to refresh your screen for this to load

Hopefully this will be adopted here, surely telling people to get more sunshine on their skin should be an easy sell and free supplements for people stuck indoors or with other illnesses seems cheap and easy.

The deafening silence from our "medical experts" continues

UK’s Prime Minister considers handing out free vitamin D in coronavirus fight
05-Nov-2020 By Will Chu

HTTPS://WWW.NUTRAINGREDIENTS.COM/ARTICLE/2020/11/04/UK-S-PM-MAY-PROVIDE-FREE-VITAMIN-D-IN-CORONAVIR

From USA

<< COVID-19 has a survival rate of 99.99% for those under the age of 40. Even people over the age of 60 who aren’t residents of nursing homes have a survival rate of 98.29%, yet residents in many areas are now told, in great detail, how they can and cannot celebrate their holidays >>

greggles said:

Fair enough. We shall see how things turn out. Personally, I hope that we don't get anywhere near 50 million dead. Much will depend on whether or not we get a successful vaccine. I hope we do. I have no interest in suffering, death, and economic destruction.

But in the absence of a vaccine I remain very pessimistic as to the eventual outcome.

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I'm not as positive as you that a vaccine will have sufficient effectiveness and uptake to make a difference to the course of the Covid-19 Pandemic.

And that is without considering that it is not outwith a possibility that we may have to deal with a Covid-20 or 21.

As regards the economic versus disease toll on the population I am agnostic and prefer to hear everyone's point of view, though I tend towards the traditional public health measures that Australia and NZ have adopted, thus far with success.

Overpopulation as @satanoperca mentioned is a major cause of the continuation if not the root cause of this pandemic.

gg

greggles said:

Fair enough. We shall see how things turn out. Personally, I hope that we don't get anywhere near 50 million dead. Much will depend on whether or not we get a successful vaccine. I hope we do. I have no interest in suffering, death, and economic destruction.

But in the absence of a vaccine I remain very pessimistic as to the eventual outcome.

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As hard as it might sound, 50M deaths of humans is not going to save the planet from the destruction we have inflicted on the planet that provides us with life.

It all depends on the lenses that we use to perceive what is happening.

At a universal level: 2% of a population/species/humans destruction is nothing.

It depends on the lenses you are looking at things.

We have removed 85% of the lungs/forests of the planet - the eco system requires them for balance
We have seen in the last 100 years more extinctions of species in record with exception of the dinosaurs, without blinking a eye lid.
We have robbed the seas of anything we can consume.
We are just a virus on the earth.
2% is hardly worth noting in time.

The mortality rate as long as everyone gets treated is quite low but higher than the flu.

If health systems get overwhelmed then 1% to 2% is likely a reasonable target.

Story on COVID in US getting grimmer and grimmer. New cases reaching 180k a day and climbing. Multiple states reaching the end of their hospital capacity. Still no substantial changes in mask wearing, reduction in public meetings or activities.

US COVID crisis updates on ABC. Scary lesson in what happens when there is no effort at stopping people mixing and passing on infections.

At the centre of the nation's burgeoning crisis are the Dakotas.

Per capita, North Dakota continues to lead the United States in daily infections, with one in every 83 residents testing positive for the virus in just the past week,.

During the same period, the state averaged more than 1,200 cases per day — an increase of 58 per cent from the average two weeks prior.

Across the border, South Dakota — which has emerged as having the nation's second-worse rate of new infections per capita — experienced a 110 per cent increase in deaths over a two-week period.

Alarmingly, almost 55 per cent of tests conducted during a similar period returned a positive result, despite the state's refusal to implement stay-at-home orders or to adopt a mask mandate (The World Health Organisation has recommended governments ensure rates of positivity remain at 5 per cent or lower for "at least 14 days" before reopening).

While the root cause of the resurgence is complex, a motorcycle rally in Sturgis, South Dakota is believed to be linked to as many as 260,000 new cases since the beginning of August.

But experts point to another more overarching issue: complacency.

America's coronavirus crisis is accelerating, with one state having half of all tests come back positive

As daily coronavirus cases hit an all-time high, and with winter fast approaching, it is yet to be seen if the United States can get on top of the record-breaking wave of infections gripping the nation.

www.abc.net.au

But it is just going to disappear, we have turned the corner and IF
we havn't I will have a vaccine available sometime in the future except for those in NC.

The vaccine sounds interesting 90% effective, what does that really mean? 1 in 10 still get the virus?

sptrawler said:

The vaccine sounds interesting 90% effective, what does that really mean? 1 in 10 still get the virus?

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I think so. I think it means that only 1 in 10 people exposed to the virus and who are vaccinated will get it.

But it is far better than that. If everyone who can gets vaccinated, then herd immunity would come into play, so for the 1 in 10 for whom it doesn't work and for the others who cannot be vaccinated for whatever reason, it is less likely they will come into contact with infected people and will be thus less susceptible to infection. That's my take, but I'm no expert.

I assume most ASF members won't have flown anywhere recently so some comments from my recent experiences:

Adelaide > Sydney on 6th November. Uneventful and nothing unusual about the flight or boarding other than people on the plane wearing masks and that both airports were largely empty of people, shops are shut etc.

Sydney > Hobart as a connecting flight. Access to the gate to board the plane, that is to simply get to the seating area at Sydney airport, was via people wearing high vis vests with Tasmanian Government logo on the back. They basically asked that I had approval to travel to Tas and had completed the online paperwork but didn't ask to see proof ( though they did remind me that no paperwork = won't be getting out of Hobart airport).

Arrival at Hobart. Everyone lined up to be temperature checked then proceeded to second stage which requires proof of authorisation to enter the state. They asked an assortment of questions as to where I've been in the past two weeks and required a definite yes / no answer to each of them. They informed me of my obligation to call a provided number in the event of developing COVID symptoms. After that I was free to go. This was all being conducted by persons identified as from or representing the Tas Department of Health, there was a police presence but only a few.

A few days later I received a text message reminding me of the symptoms and number to call.

Hobart > Adelaide today 16th November. All pretty normal at the Hobart end apart from social distancing etc. Arrival at Adelaide though was much like arriving in a foreign country - everyone arriving was directed straight to a group of people who asked to see proof of authorisation to enter the state, proof of ID and asked me questions regarding exactly where I'd been in the past two weeks and to confirm that I had not been anywhere other than Tasmania and Sydney Airport. They also verified flight number and seat number. This operation looked to be run by SA Police - there's a very visible police presence at the airport, far more than normal, and some of those asking the questions were uniformed police, others looked to be civilians assisting.

Main notable difference is Tas was the only state of the three which temperature checked arrivals and that the operation in Tas seems to be being run by the Health Department with a limited police presence whereas in SA it looks to be a police operation as such. Paperwork for the two is in line with that - Police in SA, Health Department in Tas.

Just posted that for info really on the assumption that most won't have been on a plane recently.

Interesting discussion here: