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Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
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DB008

Joined
9 July 2006
Posts
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Corona Virus in China (and rest of world)​

Human Coronavirus Types

Coronaviruses are named for the crown-like spikes on their surface. There are four main sub-groupings of coronaviruses, known as alpha, beta, gamma, and delta.

Human coronaviruses were first identified in the mid-1960s. The seven coronaviruses that can infect people are:

Common human coronaviruses
  1. 229E (alpha coronavirus)
  2. NL63 (alpha coronavirus)
  3. OC43 (beta coronavirus)
  4. HKU1 (beta coronavirus)
Other human coronaviruses
  1. MERS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or MERS)
  2. SARS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS)
  3. 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

People around the world commonly get infected with human coronaviruses 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1.


Sometimes coronaviruses that infect animals can evolve and make people sick and become a new human coronavirus. Three recent examples of this are 2019-nCoV, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV.​



29th Jan 2020 update (30th Jan AEDT)

24 hour period (Depends on where you get the numbers from, there can be wide ranging discrepancies).

Deaths
106 -> 132 (24.5% increase)

Confirmed Cases
4515 -> 5974 (32% increase)

As we are dealing with China (CCR), l would add a zero (at a minimum) onto those numbers because the CCR lie to save face.

Reposts that Corona Virus has made its way to Xinjiang where they are holding 1 million Uighur Muslims in labour camps.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...-camps-2020-1?utm_source=reddit.com&r=US&IR=T


​
 
The WHO's latest situation report put the number of global cases of coronavirus at 6065 - with more than 98 per cent of cases in China.

According to the WHO's January 29 data, there were 5997 confirmed cases in China, 9239 suspected, 1239 deemed as severe with 132 deaths. Reuters put the death toll at 133. Elsewhere, there were 68 confirmed cases in 15 countries
 
Coronavirus: Death toll rises as virus spreads to
every Chinese region​

The death toll from the coronavirus outbreak has risen to 170, and a confirmed case in Tibet means it has reached every region in mainland China.

Chinese health authorities said there were 7,711 confirmed cases in the country as of 29 January.

Infections have also spread to at least 15 other countries.

The World Health Organization (WHO) will meet on Thursday to again consider whether the virus constitutes a global health emergency.

"In the last few days the progress of the virus, especially in some countries, especially human-to-human transmission, worries us," WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Wednesday.

He named Germany, Vietnam and Japan, where there have been cases of people catching the virus from others who have been to China.

"Although the numbers outside China are still relatively small, they hold the potential for a much larger outbreak," the WHO chief said.

More people have now been infected in China than during the Sars outbreak in the early 2000s, but the death toll remains far lower. Sars, also a coronavirus, caused acute respiratory illness.​


More on link below...
 
Statement on the second meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
​
Representatives of the Ministry of Health of the People’s Republic of China reported on the current situation and the public health measures being taken. There are now 7711 confirmed and 12167 suspected cases throughout the country. Of the confirmed cases, 1370 are severe and 170 people have died. 124 people have recovered and been discharged from hospital.

The WHO Secretariat provided an overview of the situation in other countries. There are now 82 cases in 18 countries. Of these, only 7 had no history of travel in China. There has been human-to-human transmission in 3 countries outside China. One of these cases is severe and there have been no deaths.

At its first meeting, the Committee expressed divergent views on whether this event constitutes a PHEIC or not. At that time, the advice was that the event did not constitute a PHEIC, but the Committee members agreed on the urgency of the situation and suggested that the Committee should continue its meeting on the next day, when it reached the same conclusion.

This second meeting takes place in view of significant increases in numbers of cases and additional countries reporting confirmed cases.​




Rough Timeline of Some Key Events

​
Date 2019-nCoV
  • Dec 1 Earliest known patient with symptom onset
  • Dec 24 Collection of genomic sequence based on atypical pneumonia
  • Dec 31 WHO notified
  • Jan 1 Seafood market is closed + decontaminated
  • Jan 8 Novel coronavirus identified
  • Jan 10 Dr. Zhang (Shanghai) releases genome, first fatality
  • Jan 13 1st exported case in Thailand
  • Jan 19 First diagnostic test
  • Jan 20 Human-Human transmission confirmed
  • Jan 23 CEPI funding of vaccine development, quarantine begins
  • Jan 28 Australia is 1st to grow virus outside China
  • Present/Onwards animal modeling, identification of reservoir, pathogenesis, pathophysiology etc

Insights
  • It shares a crucial protein with SARS. Existing compounds are already being tested in China for treatment

  • Use of masks alone is insufficient to prevent infection. It can worsen problems if people believe all you need is a mask. Other hygiene measures are needed: wash hands, sneeze/coughing into a disposable tissue, maintain distance of >1 meter WHO Website

  • Incubation period for the first 425 patients was 5.2 days. R0 differs by study. If R0 > 1, the epidemic will increase. We aim to reduce this number to < 1. R0 = 2.2 so on average, each patient will infect 2.2 other people

  • Of the first 425 patients: 240 (56%) were male. No cases for children under age 15. 84 cases for ages 15-44. 179 cases between ages 45-64. 162 cases for age 65 and over. Incubation period for the first 425 patients was 5.2 days. Nearly half of cases occurred people over age 60. It's possible that children are infected but show milder symptoms. In the coming weeks, once developed, a seroprevalence study (where we test your blood serum) will give us a much better idea.

  • What we're monitoring is whether exportation of cases in other countries can sustain transmission. This is crucial leading up to a pandemic. Circulation within the community is bad news. It's why surveillance, isolation, and why close contacts are being monitored.


Useful Websites
​
 
Coronavirus: first death outside China recorded
as total fatalities pass 300
​

Man from Wuhan has died in a Philippines hospital, says WHO, as Xi Jinping orders 1,400 more medical workers into Wuhan​

The Philippines has reported the first death from the coronavirus outside China, adding to fears about the spread of the virus as more countries imposed travel restrictions.

The outbreak of the respiratory illness has killed 304 people in China since it was first detected in the central city of Wuhan late last year. Across China, there were 2,590 new confirmed infections on Saturday, bringing the total to 14,380, China’s National Health Commission said on Sunday. A study published on Saturday by scientists from the University of Hong Kong found that the virus may have infected as many as 75,815 people in Wuhan.

The virus, which has been declared a global public health emergency, has caused at least 100 infections in more than 20 countries, with Britain, Russia and Sweden confirming their first infections over the weekend. Japan has recorded 20 cases, including those involving human-to-human transmission, while the US on Sunday reported its eighth case.

Japan on Saturday confirmed an additional three cases among evacuees from Wuhan, including one, a man in his 40s, who initially tested negative, the health ministry said.

The fatality in the Philippines is a 44-year-old Chinese man from Wuhan who died in a hospital in Manila. He appears to have been infected before his arrival in the Philippines​

 
Early reports suggest the virus may be spread anal/ oral, as the virus has been found in the victims stools, hand washing will be imperative in avoiding the virus if the theory is proven correct. Stay safe people.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/pol...tists-identify-possible-new-mode-transmission
From the article:
The results have echoed similar findings elsewhere, including in Wuhan,
the epicentre of the virus outbreak
, and the United States, with some scientists saying the research shows it was possible the virus was transmitted via human excrement.


Researchers at Shi Zhengli’s Laboratory at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is administered by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, found nucleic acids in stool samples and anal swabs from a group of coronavirus pneumonia patients in the city, according to a report from state news agency Xinhua.


The scientists concluded that the virus could be transmitted “to a certain degree” via facecal-oral transmission
 
IFocus - add a zero onto what China says their numbers are. They are trying to 'save face'.

Wed 5th Jan - from the Johns Hopkins tracker

Total confirmed - 20, 704
Total deaths - 427
Total recovered - 727
 
Politics is never far.
Their ABC headlines is now about how bad christmas island resort is...we even have a picture of a cockroach..see how bad it is..as we have to remember how bad our illegal immigrants are treated....
And then how racist we are with the China travel ban.
Seriously?
A very worrying fact is that there is no travel bans in place in Cambodia Vietnam Laos etc.a lot of Chinese tourists there and a population which will be hit hard when infected
I also wonder about the massive but recent Chinese presence in Africa and its implication health wise
 
Listening to radio, some Christmas Island visitors complained about conditions including a dead coacroach. They are getting quarantine for free. Normally we expect a small contribution towards air fares etc.

Did find article about some Chinese students saying we are racist for stopping flights to Australia.

I am sure it's only a few who whinge.
 
Indeed if you read further, most are happy to be back where they have a chance if they fall sick, but the ABC headlines have to push an agenda.
In a time like this, it is pretty disgraceful imho.
Good on the gov to bring these guys back, it is a nightmare to try to leave china now for expats.so lucky i am not stuck there..
This virus issue will be a marathon, anyone thinking it will be over soon is dreaming in my view.
Time will tell, today could be another great opportunity to short the market
 
Friday 7th Feb 2020 AM AEST

Total Confirmed 28,353
Total Deaths 565
Total Recovered 1,382

Some biotech companies are claiming to have a cure within the next month or so....
 
DB008 said:
Friday 7th Feb 2020 AM AEST

Total Confirmed 28,353
Total Deaths 565
Total Recovered 1,382

Some biotech companies are claiming to have a cure within the next month or so....
Click to expand...
The more realistic
Total Confirmed 283,530
Total Deaths 5650
Total Recovered 13,820

That is why they are running out of body bags
 
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