Commodity Charts

[quinn123]

Take a look at the 30 day chart for copper and the 30 day COMEX stock from this site.

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical.html

I use this site to check the prices of base metals but I'm not confident in what is causing the fluctuations in the copper price.

I assume its a basic supply and demand thing I thought that the copper price would increase when the COMEX stocks decrease, and the copper price decrease when the stocks increase. But when you compare the 30 day COMEX stocks with the 30 day copper price the opposite appears to be happening. Can someone explain this please I'm thinking there is a lot at play that I'm not taking into account.

Also the general pattern of the graph for the last 30 days is interesting that it is going up and down like that. What could that be suggesting

Cheers

Quinn

 

[doogie_goes_off]

In the long term trend Copper is just finding support at 1.40ish. Funamentally it should go down a bit more, the short term fluctuations are the usual speculation that demand will pick up then oversupply concerns kick in. Basically it's volatile in the short term and steady to falling in the medium term IMO.

 

[wayneL]

It could be speculation that all the Keynesian works programs will cause an increase in base metal demand.

 

[doogie_goes_off]

Like I said, the usual speculation that demand will pick up. Fundamentally though I don't think government spending will affect demand medium term.

 

[quinn123]

OK, so the short term increases are due to speculation driven mainly by news that demand will pick up. But then the price hits a resistance due to oversupply issues or bad news which may cause it to fall (makes sense).

IMO the copper price will fall some more during the next 1-2 years but there should be a slight increase in demand when these stimulus packages kick in during 2009. Then during 2010 demand should begin to pick up but maybe not the prices we were seeing in 2007.

It’s amazing how quick this bust came on and a lot of junior produces are going to go under. Many of the exploration projects will have to be put on the sidelines as well. Although there are mines that have been ramped up that are ready to start producing once demand picks up, so I believe it’s unlikely that we will see a boom the same magnitude as the one we just had.

It really does depend on China, India and the other developing countries for an increase in demand for commodities, but they obviously rely on countries like USA and Australia for exports blah blah blah. The point I’m trying to get across is that IMO there will be an increase in demand due to the same fundamentals that drove the last boom, but it’s unlikely it will be substantial as the last.

 

[quinn123]

Anyone disagree with what I just said... I'm not that knowledgeable on the subject and want to hear other opinions.