Another week and thermal coal prices continue their uncertain path despite Xstrata tieing up an US$80 per tonne agreement for thermal coal out of Australia for 2009.
Thermal coal prices, spot, out of Newcastle for 3 months delivery, fell 44 cents to US$77.81 a tonne.
In Europe, down 11 cents to US$77.00 a tonne and the States, up $6.15 at US$80.33 - the latter somewhat bucking the trend.
can you please point me to where those prices are tracked or documented on the web? i'd like to track it myself too if possible
thanks
MCC, CEY, RIV, GCL all rose over 7% (some into double digits) on the last day of the trading year.. anything to be read into this for 09?
Coal prices have improved a little to end the year. Thermal out of Newcastle on 26th Dec 08 rose $2.76 to US$80.56 per tonne.
Europe recovered from dumping, to be up $5.50 at US$82.50 a tonne.
The US rose 67c to US$81.00 a tonne.
Yeah time tobring outteh list againBtw any new coal stocks i missed below?
Coal (Thermal & Coking) Majors - CEY, FLX, GCL, MCC, NHC, WHC, AQA, RIV, COK, CZA, PRC, CNA, AVA, NEC, WES
Coal (Thermal & Coking) Minors: CDS, CAG, CES, EQX, EER, RCI, BWN, GNM, ATQ, TCM, FSE, CWK, REY, LOD, BTU, AAL, SRL, MLM, CCD
Coal Seam Gas (CTL & UCG) - GLX, BLK, LNC, AOE, SXP, MEE, CXY, PES, ESG, MPO, BUL, QGC, SHG, MEL, ENB, ORG, PGS, MAE, GEL
thx
MS
Many thanks for posting up these,, I will update my watchlist..
Cheers
Matt Chambers | December 19, 2008
Article from: The Australian
THE nation's thermal coal exporters could face a 50 per cent drop in contract prices next year.
This would represent a $9 billion hit to exports, after Swiss mining giant Xstrata rushed to accept a big contract price drop.
Xstrata, the world's biggest thermal coal exporter, is understood to have locked in $US80 ($114) a tonne contracts with Japanese power companies for the next calendar year -- just half the price it received only three months ago.
The early agreement comes after Xstrata and Macarthur Coal this week started a round of production cutbacks and worker layoffs in Queensland's previously insulated coking coal industry.
With oil prices continuing to look shaky, analysts said Xstrata's thermal coal deal did not bode well for other local producers, such as Rio Tinto and Centennial Coal, who will be looking to negotiate contracts for the Japanese financial year, which starts in April.
It also makes analyst consensus of $US90 a tonne for the full year look too high, though many have been lowering forecasts in recent weeks.
"Time is against the suppliers in this market -- it is not surprising we are seeing them want to lock in prices quickly," said Mark Pervan, director of commodities research at ANZ in Melbourne.
Thermal coal contracts were settled at a record $US125 a tonne for this Japanese financial year, and Xstrata in September locked in a 12-month contract at $US155.
Unlike iron ore and coking coal, which are both used in steelmaking, thermal coal is not strictly contracted on a Japanese financial year basis and contracts can start at different times.
Prices of thermal coal, used to make electricity, had surged on the back of soaring global energy prices and are now expected to slide as oil prices plunge.
Customers are still expected to take delivery, and there has been no talk of production cuts. Government forecaster ABARE is predicting coking coal exports of $18 billion this financial year.
The worsening outlook for coking coal exports was reinforced last night by South Korea's POSCO, the world's fourth largest steelmaker, which announced its first-ever production cut to reduce rising inventory caused by a sharp fall in local demand. POSCO, which produces 2.78 million tonnes of crude steel a month, said it would reduce output by 200,000 tonnes this month 370,000 tonnes next month.
Merrill Lynch, which forecasts a contract price of $US80 a tonne next year, said the Xstrata deal would probably be seen as a benchmark, though the outlook for coal was not strong.
"This is a good deal for Xstrata as the thermal market is exposed to several key bear factors, including a ... weak short to medium term global economic outlook, rising coal production in China and weakness in metallurgical (coking) coal markets," Merrill analyst Vicky Binns said.
The sudden dip in global coking coal markets, with steelmakers this month suddenly calling for deliveries to be deferred, is expected to flow through to thermal coal.
Many coking coal mines have areas of thermal coal available if customers do not want the higher-quality hard coking coal.
Semi-soft coking coal can also be sold as thermal coal. Felix Resources managing director Brian Flannery said his company could start mining thermal coal instead of coking coal if steel mills could not take contracted volumes. He said there were no plans to do so, and there had been no requests for deferrals, but company representatives were in talks with Japanese steel mills about future needs.
ANZ's Mr Pervan forecasts contract prices of $US75 a tonne for the Japanese fiscal year. However, the slide in oil prices could drive this lower, he said.
Goldman Sachs JBWere this week dropped its forecast from $US90 a tonne to $US70.
(INTERFAX-CHINA)
Updated: 2009-01-04 09:05
Counter:123
Chinese coke producers are earning profits again now that demand has rebounded amid relatively low coking coal prices, a coal analyst told Interfax on Dec. 31.
Ma Xiaoguang, a coal analyst with metal information portal Umetal, estimated that coke producers are earning profits of between RMB 50($7.31) and RMB 100 ($14.62) per ton.
The market price of coking coal, the main raw material in coke production, is sitting at about RMB 1,200 ($175.44) per ton, which is around the same price level of coking coal at the beginning of this year, Ma said.
Coking coal prices peaked at the end of July at RMB 2,200($321.64) per ton. Annual contract prices for coking coal are about the same as current market prices, though contract prices are usually adjusted every quarter.
Meanwhile, coking coal companies are offering discounts of RMB 200($29.24) per ton to some steel mills in southern China that purchase coking coal directly, Ma said.
Coke producers have also benefited from an upsurge in downstream demand as a number of small-sized steel mills resumed production at the beginning of December in response to growing demand for steel.
The situation suggests that coke demand grew in December, which in turn caused coking coal prices to rebound recently, Ma said.
Coke prices in Shanxi Province, China's largest coke producing region, rose to between RMB 1,500 ($219.30) and RMB 1,600 ($233.92) per ton as of Dec. 30, up from RMB 1,100 ($160.82) to RMB 1,300 ($190.06) per ton on Dec. 1, according to Umetal.
I like the suggestion that coking coal prices have started to rebound. The world hasn't stopped after all...
Most coal stocks have rebounded, rising up to 100% from their low point. Most are still at a third or less of their 2008 highs.
Profit forecasts for year ending 2009 are set to tumble and again for 2010.
It will be during 2009 that they come out of the melting pot, mostly after June 30th year end trading finishes.
After that major backtrack on profits and dividends at Macarthur, confidence in the board of directors is seriously in doubt. Wouldn't be surprised to see the major holders put the pressure on now, some need tipping.Gee I wish that the rebound were true of MCC. Still stuck around the $3.00 mark. There is probably enough intra-day to trade, but I'm still shell shocked with MCC - bottom draw right now. mmmm, my bottom draw is not a pretty site
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