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Climategate

That graph says a lot more than most probably realise:

1. The rise in CO2 concentration is almost linear since the early 1700's despite very minimal amounts of fossil fuels being used at the time. Coal use was just beginning then with oil not coming until the late 1850's and significant use of gas not until the 1930's.

And more to the point, total fossil fuel use remained low at the global level until after WWII, a situation that makes a linear rise in CO2 concentration seem somewhat odd.

Whilst it seems logical that burning fossil fuels would increase CO2 in the atmosphere, that graph shows that most of the rise in CO2 happened before most of the fossil fuel burning occurred. Regardless of the climate change issue, that trend of itself does warrant some proper scientific (not political) investigation to find out what is going on. It clearly seems that the rise in CO2 is not due to fossil fuel use, and certainly not due to oil or gas which were not in use until after half the rise had already happened.

2. The graph shows a relationship between rising CO2 and rising temperature existed during the period 1700 to 1800 and again from about 1900 to 1930, and again during sometime around 1980 to the late 1990's.

So, from 1200 years of data we find a relationship between rising CO2 concentration and rising temperature occurs for about 150 years or 12.5% of the time. For the other 1000+ years and 87.5% of the time, CO2 and temperature do not change in parallel and often head in different directions at the same time, a situation which suggests that CO2 is not the dominant determinant of the earth's temperature. Whether or not it has any effect at all can not be deduced from that graph.

But what about the spike during the late 20th Century that was more rapid than previous temperature changes? That is most likely a function of more accurate measurements.

An analogy to illustrate the point. Suppose that you live in Sydney (or anywhere else, I'll just pick Sydney for example) and you have a thermometer at home.

Using your thermometer, you can get very accurate data on temperature changes as often as you want. Plot these on a graph and you'll get a chart that's all over the place with highs and lows.

Now go back and add historic data since European settlement in 1788. Looking through the record books, you'll have real trouble finding anything more than daily data and to a large extent you will end up settling for monthly or annual averages. Now your chart will look a lot smoother - there probably were heatwaves in 1800 but your data doesn't show this, hence your chart won't show it either.

Now add some data for the previous 1000 years based on some proper research. No way is that going to show daily or even annual temperature. At best, you'll be able to approximate general conditions over a decade or more and base your chart on that. Now your chart has no spikes at all because you have no evidence that they ever occurred, although it would be fair to assume that it wasn't 22 degrees every single day 1000 years ago.

So in short, the chart shows abrupt changes recently not because the climate has suddenly started abruptly changing, but because we now have the means to accurately measure it.

If I plot the price of BHP shares over the past 10 years, and then go back and get annual end of year data since the company was formed, then that too will show a recent spike in voltatility simply because I haven't included daily or monthly data until quite recently. Same with anything.

Overall, that graph is pretty convincing that CO2 isn't something to worry too much about in terms of the climate. But we ought to investigate the relationship between CO2 concentration and fossil fuel use to see why it does not behave as one would logically expect.

The rate of change of CO2 concentration does not parallel the rise in CO2 emissions as one would logically expect. That raises a lot of questions (1) why and (2) would reducing CO2 emissions by 20% or 50% (for example) have any effect on CO2 concentrations given that CO2 concentrations have risen at much the same rate despite huge changes in emission levels over the 300 years that CO2 concentraton has been rising at a roughly linear rate.

That situation suggests there's more to the story than a simplistic relationship between man-made CO2 emissions and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere - we emit more and more but has shown up in atmospheric measurements once we passed the relatively trivial emission levels of the 1700's.

In that case any cut to fossil fuel use, unless it is 100% or very close to it, would seem to be pointless even if there were a reason to be worried about CO2 in the atmosphere.
 

You appear to be getting rattled Cynical and with good cause, The alarmists are now on the back foot and will soon be in full retreat. The Labor government have put all it's powers of spin and coercion into backing these dangerous megalomaniacs. Now that the GW crusade has been exposed as a fraud they have nowhere to turn.

Rudd's dreams of being a world opinion leader are starting to unravel. There will be many sleepless nights ahead for his large team of spin doctors.
 
As a guess part of the answer may lie in fossil fuel type.

Coal is mostly carbon whereas a significant amount of energy from the combustion of hydrocarbons (oil and gas) comes from hydrogen.

What you say overall makes a lot of sense.
 
Looking at Smurf's graph, assuming the data is correct, I think I'll no longer worry about global warming and the polar bears.
 

We'll just have to wait and see won't we. The laugh will be on you if you are proved wrong!!!
 
Looking at Smurf's graph, assuming the data is correct, I think I'll no longer worry about global warming and the polar bears.
Note that I am basing my comments there on the graph and can NOT confirm the accuracy or otherwise of the graph itself since I do not have the original data.
 



What the tabacco lobbyists said back then ...


Heres a insider document from The Brown and Wilson Tabacco Corporation about how doubt is their best tool for distracting the public.


Interested in reading more ----> http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global_warming/exxon_report.pdf



Sounds somewhat similar to the global warming arguments to me.
 

Well seeing as you claimed it's all been torn a new one I thought you would be well educated on the subject. Obviously I was wrong.

And the poor attempt at a personal attack was interesting, pathetic, but still interesting.
 
And the poor attempt at a personal attack was interesting, pathetic, but still interesting.

Hank - firstly, see you are new, welcome to ASF.

Please watch out for calling other posters pathetic - you might like to read the announcements threads which discuss treating ASF members with respect and civility. No, we are not perfect, but we appreciate an effort.

But, back to the positive - welcome.
 
Well seeing as you claimed it's all been torn a new one I thought you would be well educated on the subject. Obviously I was wrong.

And the poor attempt at a personal attack was interesting, pathetic, but still interesting.

1/ I made no claim, you did. I'm not trying to prove something, you are.

2/ As suspected, precious little in the way of evidence for your claim, and a disingenuous attempt to shift the onus of proof.

3/ Can you please point out who I personally attacked. As far as I can see, I have not referred to any individual.

Misinterpretation of words, whether intentional or mistaken, just like similar misinterpretation of science, whether intentional or mistakes, leads to incorrect and probably very dangerous conclusions.
 
rising sea levels...

can someone tell me how many L of extra water we need in the ocean to make is rise an extra 1 cm? im just curious on if I should be buying on the coast or not. (its a serious question for you climate gurus)..
 
can someone tell me how many L of extra water we need in the ocean to make is rise an extra 1 cm?
Take your 1cm and multiply that by the surface area of the earth. Then multiply that by the ratio of sea/total surface area.

In short you would have to pee for a very, very long time but if the polar ice caps melted, that's another story.
 
rising sea levels...

can someone tell me how many L of extra water we need in the ocean to make is rise an extra 1 cm? im just curious on if I should be buying on the coast or not. (its a serious question for you climate gurus)..

Thats a very interesting question.
According to how stuff works, probably 7 metres if the ice in polar regions melted.
http://www.howstuffworks.com/question473.htm
 
Take your 1cm and multiply that by the surface area of the earth. Then multiply that by the ratio of sea/total surface area.

In short you would have to pee for a very, very long time but if the polar ice caps melted, that's another story.

You will get far more change in sea level from contraction/expansion, due to ocean temperature changes, than peeing in the ocean, so to speak. Sorry.
Unless the complete Antartic melts, or we hit another ice age, the impact of tectonic plate movement and subsidence would be the dominant mecanisms.
 
Having introduced bladder contraction I didn't want to complicate the math with thermal expansion.

If the Greenland ice sheet melted that would add about 7m. If the lot went then about 70m. If the latter happened I could enjoy a short walk to the beach but one's mind would quickly turn to more pressing matters.
 
If the Greenland ice sheet melted that would add about 7m. If the lot went then about 70m. If the latter happened I could enjoy a short walk to the beach but one's mind would quickly turn to more pressing matters.

Are you sure about that figure. It implies that the average thickness of the ice over Greenland is more than a kilometre. That seems a lot, but could possibly be right.

The surface area of Greenland is 2.166 X 10^12 m2
The surface area of the earth under water is 340 X 10^12 m2

So, ignoring contraction of ice when it melts, that would imply the thickness of the ice over Greenland is 7 * 340/2.166 or 1098m
 
I figured you weren't much off the money there bellenuit, though when I looked the actual figure is over 2km thick! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_ice_sheet

About Antarctica's ice: That ends up being over 2km thick average as well. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_ice_sheet

You also have to remember that the ice will be weighing the continent down, pushing the crust down into the mantle, similar to what mountain ranges do. So if that ice is removed the land surface will rise up too (isostatic readjustment) bringing with it the adjacent sea floor further adding the the sea level. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isostacy
 
The 70m figure includes the melting of Antarctica's ice.

But I am just using the 7m figure if Greenland's ice melted. It would imply ice thickness of over 1 km for Greenland.

Antarctica is 14 X 10^12 m2. If it were to add an additional 63m to sea level, then that implies the thickness of its ice is 63 X 340/14 or 1530 m.

These are actual underestimates because they assume the surface area of the earth under sea stays constant as the sea level rises. But of course the surface area under sea will increase as low lying land is engulfed. This would imply an ice thickness greater than the above calculations would suggest.

I have just found a link on Google that says Antarctica's ice thickness is 7,000 feet on average. This is 2133 m. So your 70m figure seems about right.

Greenland's ice is 2.3km, again suggesting your figure is about right, allowing for the fact that as the sea level rises, it spreads over a greater area.
 

derty, our posts crossed. Yes I am quite surprised at the thickness. I was initially assuming a thickness for Greenland of in 10s of metres, not thousands.

According to Google Earth, my house is 24m above sea level. So 1/3 melting would suit me fine, saving trips to the beach. Anything more and its off to the hills for me.
 
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