Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Chinese Black Swan event imminent?

Jump to new
Re: Chinese Black Swan event imminent ?

I'm not sure if you can put 'black swan' and 'imminent' in the same sentence, but it would be pretty untidy if China fell over and world economic confidence collapsed again. There's not much left in the golf bag to play the next shot.
 
China doesn't have to fall over, just trim its growth to western norm... that would put a cat amongst the pigeons.
 
When you say imminent, what do you mean?

It is commonly accepted that there has been a significant slowdown in the Chinese economy in say the last 6 months, is this about to get significantly worse?

Sorry, just after some definition in terms so I have an idea of what we are talking about here.
 
kennas said:
I'm not sure if you can put 'black swan' and 'imminent' in the same sentence,
Click to expand...

Agree.

wayneL said:
China doesn't have to fall over, just trim its growth to western norm... that would put a cat amongst the pigeons.
Click to expand...

Cross-posted.

Thanks Wayne.

Is this the "Black Swan" outcome in your opinion Boggo?
 
There seems to be an expectation that China will slow so does that by definition NOT make it a Black Swan if it happens (one having to be unexpected and, typically, random)? Or is that is quite difficult to predict that DOES make it a Black Swan event if it happens? I'd say it's the latter case from my very limited knowledge.

I will gratefully receive any comments that correct my thinking on a Black Swan event.
 
All we are really talking about is a bit of over production, or if you like a levelling off for China's growth of the last few years where we have seen around 10% plus growth per year. Do we expect this adinfanitum. I got news for you pal

However the money industry has built its growth out of the GFC1008 on China continuing to expand. The continued low cost (paper) money depends on it.

Game is nearly up now.

Hope you all hold some physical gold or silver, if not, its hard to aquire now.
 
wayneL said:
China doesn't have to fall over, just trim its growth to western norm... that would put a cat amongst the pigeons.
Click to expand...

That is probably the "imminent" outcome, refer to the last dot point on slide 15.


Timmy said:
Is this the "Black Swan" outcome in your opinion Boggo?
Click to expand...

I don't really have an opinion at the moment, everything associated with China seems on one hand to be sturdy and factual but on the other it could be seen as a house of cards that is presented to the outsider by smoke and mirrors.
 
Boggo said:
You may need to read this again GL, can we stick to the subject...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20082
Click to expand...

Sorry mate. I was just thinking of those beautiful black swans from WA.

Don't mean to divert from the topic.

I don't see how a "black" swan should be a negative. But within the time confining constructs of the English language. A "black" <-(adjective) event is not always a bad one.

Anyway back to what's happening in the economic realm.

Sorry Boggo. Don't want to bog down the thread. :D
 
GumbyLearner said:
Sorry Boggo. Don't want to bog down the thread. :D
Click to expand...
Almost rhymes :D

No problem, just trying to get some opinions/views on China, seems to be tons of experts with conflicting views.
That 20 page slideshow seemed to be telling it how it is.
 
Boggo said:
Almost rhymes :D

No problem, just trying to get some opinions/views on China, seems to be tons of experts with conflicting views.
That 20 page slideshow seemed to be telling it how it is.
Click to expand...

Yes. LOL First time someone in AFL has kicked a bag in excess of 10 for 10 years!

China?

Well there were a few days of yellow dust on the Korean Peninsula this spring/summer. More than 2008/2009 but nothing like 2005/2006. So things are picking up but nowhere near 2005/06 levels in my *cough* *cough* experience. :)
 
China just isn't real

When running really high growth rates for so long inefficiencies creep into the numbers yet China doesn't have this problem

US and Europe are currently not growing in fact contraction has been, is going to be the issue but China is still a bull.

This week all the talk is that Tio2 prices are going up in the Asian market WTF?

Oz is sailing along on the Chinese junk or is that a tramp steamer............

China I don't get.

Can do you have any opinion on the China?
 
Does it matter if China has what westerners call a black swan event. Western society spends more than it earns and needs market growth to fund the difference. Look at the inflation rate as the measurement of the gap between what we earn and what we spend. Sooner or later it had/has to end. We should all get used to living within our means. The credit card is maxed out.
Does China really have the same problem. I fail to see why it would be bad for us if China only performed next year at the same level as it has for the past year or why the same level of trade for the next year as for this one would be a disaster.
 
I was in China recently and went to the expo in Shanghai. The scale of construction and organisation were truly amazing. At the same time much is wasted as most will be pulled down in 3 months' time.

Walking the streets in Shanghai there was no sign of any obvious downturn.

People keep talking about that the China growth story needs to be sustained by domestic consumption. What I have yet to see is any figure out there suggesting how much consumption need to increase to fill the void left by the deleveraging of the West consumers. Are those figures realistic (wrt saving rates), over what timeframe, and are they on track?

The China growth story can go either way...
 
kennas said:
Didn't they buy more new cars than the US last year, or something? Must be some substance there.
Click to expand...

Wouldn't be surprised think they now also use more energy than the US.

Maybe with China "its different this time" in terms of growth year after year of 8 to 10%
 
Top