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China's Evergrande Group crisis

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tech/a said:
Have mates over there with businesses in the construction industry and concur with what your seeing.
2000 wankers stuffing up 200000 genuine workmen and women.
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And propaganda works well i can see.
Gov applying bully school yard tactics: a few of you misbehave so we lock the whole of you..and it works like a charm..the blame is put on these nasty anyvax..obviously, you have to be antivax, not freedom fighter if you think being forced without svientific reason to be used as a guinea pig is legit...anyway as far as i remember, it is not the antivax closing the business construction included now

this country will get what it deserves.
A pity, it could have turned good
 
And soon enough, we will see the economic results of being dumb.
Even if the only casualty of Evergrande is IO, it will be costly here
 
qldfrog said:
And soon enough, we will see the economic results of being dumb.
Even if the only casualty of Evergrande is IO, it will be costly here
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And a last note, i am not exactly a bull, think the correction is well past due time, but i somehow do not believe this is the big one yet.
Anything planned is usually controlled.there is no surprise so far with Evergrande..any surprise would be a positive like being bailed out or bond interests paid.
We need a black swan to trigger a real crash, something no fed can foresee or has time to fix.
This is not it..maybe 10pc down but no more.still a btd case imho
 

Shite—-didnt take long !
 
tech/a said:
Shite—-didnt take long !
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@tech/a ..you put the blame for closing construction on the protest , not the gov imposing it? Do you remember your school year? that's the level of mgt we are subject too.
Not especially keen on CFMEU which i consider a thug mafia, just scared that all the basic of propaganda, the us vs them etc seems to be swallowed like gospel even by reasonably intelligent people.
 
Seems a common-sense rundown. He sees this as likely to not only affect our commodity suppliers but also our r/e values due to Chinese interests liquidating foreign assets to meet domestic obligations. Don't have a view personally.

 
finicky said:
Seems a common-sense rundown. He sees this as likely to not only affect our commodity suppliers but also our r/e values due to Chinese interests liquidating foreign assets to meet domestic obligations. Don't have a view personally.

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I like common sense,seems rare and missing lately in our country.
When you take a step back.. Evergrande down means construction sector down ,means the key user of steel down . All the pig iron for these ghost cities..so IO down but not only steel but copper for cabling,coal for cement factories.
For the first time in ages,we could see a slow down in construction in ChinaAnd this is bad news at the very least for our miners, especially domestic ones with our major export partner down.
That's the positive scenario with no contagion.
There is no jab untested or not, against the economic China cold. If they sneeze,our economic is sick,but our stock market?
 
qldfrog said:
I like common sense,seems rare and missing lately in our country.
When you take a step back.. Evergrande down means construction sector down ,means the key user of steel down .
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Steel - production of that uses lots of iron ore and the price of that has fallen in a heap.

Making steel is also the largest use by far of coking coal. Coal being one of Australia's largest exports. Price seems to have held up thus far but there's a disconnect there - if steel production is to fall, and iron ore price is falling in a heap, then unless there's a disruption to coking coal supply (?) that logically also should see price decline sooner or later. If you're not making steel with it then you don't need the coking coal. Steel isn't the only use of it but it's the big one.

Which brings me to question the impact of this on the AUD going forward?
 
On AUD, i have been wrong too often.
We should see a fall of AUD vs USD
But internationally,aud is seen as gold (producer) linked and as such a refuge currency.
So this old belief is protecting the AUD somewhat.
There is also the fact the USD/DXY is on a long down trend.so will lessen the aud vs usd fall.
I personally have moved obviously PM but also yuan and Russian market. Market as I could not find currency etf
 
Analysis on ABC about Evergrande and how it might or might not be managed without bringing the house down.

Lot of eggs being juggled at the moment

Evergrande's collapse could be very bad news for Australia and the world. Here's why

The financial woes of a developer half a world away wouldn't seem to have much direct impact on Australians' daily lives, but Evergrande's looming default is already sending shock waves Down Under and around the world of finance, writes David Taylor.
www.abc.net.au
 
AU is boned. I moved 90% of my capital into ADR's/USD denominated assets quite some time ago.

The pain this country is soon going to find itself in is not news to some. I made a series of posts over the FMG thread explaining what's gone on.
 
So all green in the NYSE so far oil,market,pm..but USD does not fall much.
Still some fear here.probably because today in Australia is DDay with Evergrande..
We may know tonight what wctually happen to these billions..
A bit scared running with systematic systems today. But hey ....stats are better than my judgement
 
qldfrog said:
USD does not fall much.
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The movement in currencies, or more to the point the lack of it, is the one that has me intrigued as to what's going on.

Anyone looking only at exchange rates could be excused for thinking Evergrande was just some inconsequential local small business that hadn't paid a few sub-contractors and owed a few $ to whatever the Chinese equivalent of Bunnings is. Etc. Iron ore loses ~half it's value and the AUD stays roughly unchanged - I'm missing something here?
 
I'm perplexed too but the U.S markets are doing quite well and the AUD follows them quite closely.
 
And IO fall is after drastic slashing of coal export: sure coal price is still high, but China is locking us out.
As for international students..none and we are still locked out of the world economy with domestric still hit by lockdown.
The AUD should be in free fall..not that i want that..but basic economy..
Do we have gov intervention to support AUD? I do not think so.
Got a rideon mower yesterday.
5k new 5y ago to the month nearly 8k for same model now..
Took one k in the last 2m..supposedly extra high shipping costs.. which are high indeed..but who cares the reasons.it is very high inflation coming..so the purchase now
 
Very good article in the Age today, which I get delivered, from their North East Asian correspondent Eryk Bagshaw. Worth reading but I am not going to provide a link.

The basic conclusion is that the Chinese Government will use their significant powers of persuasion over smaller firms, investors and homeowners to accept a compromise out of a sense of national duty.

You may say well that is typical but I would argue the USA Chapter 13 bankruptcy law is similar where creditors are forced to take a haircut while the firm is allowed to continue.
 
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