China's Energy Crisis

rederob said:

This.
I think South Australians' regard their State as modern.
Then there's Norway and our island State of Tassie that can generate 100% from renewables.
On the other hand China remains a developing economy. It's one of the reasons it's lights go out from time to time during the year.

Presently costs of storage don't make it economical to invest in extra capacity, but it's very doable for Australia. The other point missing is that few nations ever rely solely on their own natural resources and capacity to meet energy needs. So in years to come excess wind and solar energy is either going to be exported or converted into storage.

The UK is another nation that demonstrates the rapid transition from legacy ff capacity to renewables and shows why @willfairfax89's claim barely stacks up:
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lol
like every produced of the left and this green propaganda!
a glossy brochure and airy fairy figures and no substance!

hence why the UK, Europe and china froze and all went back to coal-over the year

Investoradam said:

lol
like every produced of the left and this green propaganda!
a glossy brochure and airy fairy figures and no substance!

hence why the UK, Europe and china froze and all went back to coal-over the year

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FYI, trolling is forbidden at ASF.
I am sure @Joe Blow has better things to do than remind posters of this.
If you have nothing sensible to add to threads, then say nothing.

rederob said:

FYI, trolling is forbidden at ASF.
I am sure @Joe Blow has better things to do than remind posters of this.
If you have nothing sensible to add to threads, then say nothing.

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im just point out what has been happening to the rest of the world. the UK, china & EU are known to be far more advanced and ahead of Australia with the green renewable technology. it failed as ive its been brough up before with you and you have just ignored it and again trying to deflect

Investoradam said:

im just point out what has been happening to the rest of the world. the UK, china & EU are known to be far more advanced and ahead of Australia with the green renewable technology. it failed as ive its been brough up before with you and you have just ignored it and again trying to deflect

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No, you are trolling.
This thread is about China's energy crisis!

is China facing an energy crisis or ramping up demand , by increasing production of goods ( i suspect for increased internal consumption , since last i heard there were considerable snarls at various ports across the globe )

another thing i have seen no recent reports on is the planned railway connecting China and Europe ( and Russia )

just maybe China is in full recovery/consolidation mode ,

and since Sun Tzu states all war is based on deception and several nation states are economically restrictive to China , currently , is China being selectively truthful

i see one Chinese official has forecast China will grow 6% in the coming year ( i would have considered a 5% increase prudent and realistic ) that is pretty hot since several of it's customer nations have damaged economies , so unless China is looking to expand trading relationships , elsewhere that productivity is likely to be absorbed nationally ( and Russia is still moving towards self-sufficiency )

divs4ever said:

is China facing an energy crisis or ramping up demand

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A definite issue with China is the lack of data visibility.

It's not like say the UK where anyone with an internet connection can see that present demand is 26.1 GW, nuclear is generating 6.1 GW, wind 8 GW and so on.

Or anyone can see that in Tasmania the hydro dams are collectively 52.2% full with individual storages ranging from 43.2% to 93.1%. Etc

Point being that it's all very visible to anyone who wants to see what's going on. No real secrets there.

For China however well it's far less visible so that does lead to a "joining the dots" exercise to work out what's going on.

There are numerous reports, too many to dismiss, which point to coal being reasonably scarce and expensive. That's one issue.

LNG on international spot markets is now prohibitively expensive as a means of power generation for energy-intensive industry. Prices in the high 30's AUD per GJ is just far too costly to the point that buying up spot cargos of LNG isn't really an option unless money's no object and it's a case of trying to keep the lights on no matter what it costs (which they may well do).

In theory diesel is now cheaper than LNG but burning that requires being able to get it. There are reports of a diesel shortage in China which would seem to preclude this: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59059093

What limited data is available shows a reduction in Chinese hydro output. Given the energy shortage, that one does raise a lot of questions. Have they run out of water? Or is there a serious problem with one or more large hydro facilities?

There's also the Taishan nuclear plant reported incident and the question of whether the problems are unique to that facility or are they more widespread and applicable to multiple Chinese nuclear plants? Are all other Chinese nuclear plants still fully operational or not?

Put all that together and it's a lot of questions without many answers but given the number of apparent issues at least some of them likely are true.

That's just listing the reported issues I've come across, there may well be others. Not interested in discussing religion though since it's economics, logistics, weather and engineering that have relevance here depending on what actually is going on.

Smurf1976 said:

A definite issue with China is the lack of data visibility.
For China however well it's far less visible so that does lead to a "joining the dots" exercise to work out what's going on.

In theory diesel is now cheaper than LNG but burning that requires being able to get it. There are reports of a diesel shortage in China which would seem to preclude this: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59059093

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And speaking of diesel, what's this about? How come urea only comes from China now?

Dona Ferentes said:

nd speaking of diesel, what's this about? How come urea only comes from China now?

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Ultimately the same reason that whatever device you're reading this on almost certainly has "Made in China" written on the back of it.

Globalisation.

Smurf1976 said:

Ultimately the same reason that whatever device you're reading this on almost certainly has "Made in China" written on the back of it.

Globalisation.

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It was rhetorical. I know the answer

well China can make the official data anything it wants to be , a few forced resignations here a few jailings there , and some executions to get the public attention HOWEVER others play the same game but use different methods , a few sanctions here , some Fed bailouts there , and some obscure military contracts to blur the money trail

i am slightly puzzled over the Chinese energy crisis , mainly because of the grand plan to install a number of nuclear power plants a few years back , were we deceived then or are we being tricked now

i bet a proper forensic audit in any one of 50 nations would reveal huge discrepancies

BTW China will only be the manufacturing heart of the world while it offers cheap skilled labour ( i see rivals racing in an attempt to overtake China , but maybe not in the next 10 years )

regarding the Chinese water i did see a concern a while back about damage/problems to some BIG dams , maybe they have had to keep storage levels low in some places

So now Indonesia's pausing coal exports:

Indonesia, one of the world’s top exporters of thermal coal, is pausing exports of the fuel in January to secure domestic supply as power plants are running low on supplies, the Kumparan news portal reported.

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And next year Mexico's going to permanently stop exporting oil:

Petroleos Mexicanos, the Mexican state-owned producer known as Pemex, will reduce crude oil exports to 435,000 barrels a day in 2022 before phasing out sales to clients abroad the following year, CEO Octavio Romero said during a press conference in Mexico City on Dec. 28.

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So there it is. Resource nationalism is rising, free trade is on the way out and that has very broad implications not just for energy.

The price of something is only one factor but it's irrelevant if it's not for sale at any price.

Smurf1976 said:

So now Indonesia's pausing coal exports:

Will Beijing's 'green Olympics' really be green?

BEIJING: China wants to use the Beijing Winter Olympics to showcase its green credentials but there are concerns over the environmental cost of a Games relying on artificial snow in one of t

www.channelnewsasia.com

And next year Mexico's going to permanently stop exporting oil:

Mexico to Stop Exporting Oil in 2023 in Self-Sufficiency Quest - TT

Mexico plans to end crude oil exports in 2023 as part of a strategy by the nationalist government of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to reach self-sufficiency in the domestic fuels market.

www.ttnews.com

So there it is. Resource nationalism is rising, free trade is on the way out and that has very broad implications not just for energy.

The price of something is only one factor but it's irrelevant if it's not for sale at any price.

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Countries who rely on these are going to start to worry. Energy security might be a significant issue in the 20s.