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CDU - Cudeco Limited

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FitzGerald says "Rocklands barely makes it as a development opportunity", so you are probably right.
 
alphaman said:
FitzGerald says "Rocklands barely makes it as a development opportunity", so you are probably right.
Click to expand...

380,562 tonnes of copper or around $3b worth. If the mine has a 20 yr life, thats about 20,000 tonnes of copper a yr, or about 160m revenue. The net profit would be ?
 
alphaman said:
FitzGerald says "Rocklands barely makes it as a development opportunity", so you are probably right.
Click to expand...

How do we know the numbers they gave out to day are correct, hell after 4 years and thats all they can come up with??? This is NOT a mine.
 
So *that's* why it's called Hot Copper!

Oh the irony of CDU investors ramping each other to oblivion on HOT COPPER.
 
adds4 said:
380,562 tonnes of copper or around $3b worth. If the mine has a 20 yr life, thats about 20,000 tonnes of copper a yr, or about 160m revenue. The net profit would be ?
Click to expand...

The net profit would be a hell of a lot less than the current market cap, and thats before they have even began to plan for mining.
 
Was the sell off today overdone?

Just on the surface of it to me it seems sentiment has gone too far the opposite direction.

Some of the figures produced, comparing it to Cadia, for example, look ok on quick glance.

Or, maybe they're stuffed?

Still just smoke and mirrors perhaps.

 
The 31MT are designed as input for 10 years to a 3MT per year processing plant. At 1.24% that makes 37000 tons of Cu equivalent per year, at around $A8,000 a ton (current, but very likely to rise) that makes $A296M per year revenue, say 30% costs then we arrive at around $A200 a year or approximately $1.50 per share per year. A P/E of 7 (just for arguments sake) and we have a reasonable share price of $A10 per share. Looking at the broader resources at Rocklands (245MT @ 0.42% ) and it's still very much a going concern for at least 40years, however the figures of $A100 a share that were being banded around is obviously unrealistic.
Has the selling been overdone ?, absolutely !!
 
Thanks Pjemmett - good to see someone is doing the sums rather than sticking the boot in like the mob.

Now that the JORC is FINALLY out, it will provide a baseline and de-risks the project. Big institutions will feel more comfortable buying in.

Lets also not forget that the JORC was a very conservative figure, almost certainly with a 10% native copper cutoff figure. The actual native copper is far higher in the bonanza zones. There's also numerous other strong zones of of exploration which will provide further upside.

Way oversold, but an expected reaction after so much build up of expectations for so long. I wonder how long before the bargain-hunters dive in.
 

Why would you want to put your money in the management of this company?
imo your money would be better spent elsewhere.
 
pjemment,

dont forget to allow dilution of shares for future capital raising including to set up the Plant.
 
crisstoff said:
pjemment,

dont forget to allow dilution of shares for future capital raising including to set up the Plant.
Click to expand...
What is the likely capex for this?

Will they even get to a point where capex is an issue, or just keep drilling?

Wayne says:

I envisage the Rocklands tenement will require another 5 years of exploration before we can say we have completed a thorough geological investigation of all areas identified as high probability target zones for mineralisation.
Click to expand...

eeeek
 
jancha said:
Why would you want to put your money in the management of this company?
imo your money would be better spent elsewhere.
Click to expand...

245 Mt @ 0.42% CuEq isn't too shabby and thats very conservative.

$40M in the bank and the MOU with Sinosteel will take care of the rest.

Amazing bargain at these prices and once the dust settles, the smart money will realise it.
 
wow, just wow...

what a day, what a week, what a month, what a ride...

dont completely understand it, 30mt was about the expected resource from what i remember? 1.24% is a little slim, but no big deal...

simple case of buy the rumor, sell the news!

makes a mockery of the companies buy back strategy...

the stock will get thrashed tomorrow morning... probably over sold, but who knows... markets are not rational... it could go much lower...

the company will probably get taken over soon, or management thrown out...
 
A decent rebound is far more likely IMO, but who knows ...
Expect some positive annoucements and more buybacks.
 
Will history repeat?

Note the strong support around $2.50 (which is also the 50% Fib level from $5).
Around $3.30 is the 66% retracement.

After July 2006's meltdown, the stock bounced back to the $3.30 level a week later and steadily recovered from there to be back around $4.00 a month later.


 
soho,

re your comment "dont completely understand it, 30mt was about the expected resource from what i remember? 1.24% is a little slim, but no big deal... "

They were expected to have 100mt, they were talking 59mt 4 years ago, so it is an absolute disaster for holders.


31Mt at 0.8%Cu and 0.1 g/t Au is actually less valuable than EXS in pit inventories for the Cloncurry Project!


Surprised CDU haven't been slammed harder.


No way they should be worth what they still are.
 
Just for clarification :

JORC July 2006 - 59Mt @ 2% CuEq inferred

JORC Aug 2010

- 31Mt @ 1.24% CuEq measured (0.8% cutoff)
- 151Mt @ 0.47% CuEq measured/indicated (0.15% cutoff)
- 245Mt @ 0.42% CuEq measured/indicated/inferred (0.15% cutoff)

The resource has quadrupled in size (59Mt to 245Mt), albeit at lower %.

IMO the lower 1.24% measured figure is mainly due to JORC capping of the native-copper figures to 10% when they are in reality often 10-20%. See here
http://www.cudeco.com.au/pdf/CDUAnnounce21.10.08.pdf

Yeah its obviously disappointing that the numbers aren't higher, but a LOT of progress has been made.
Hopefully management learnt a lesson and from here on we get regular JORC updates to prevent future speculation and surprises.
 
Gringotts Bank said:
(I like it here because it's free from nazi moderators hell bent on preventing people saying naughty words).
Click to expand...
LOL!
Gee, I wonder which forum you are referring to? !!

I've been moderated on more than once occasion for using the word "bugger".
Despite it being in common everyday use, it took a while to work out that was actually a problem word there. The moderator(s) reasons were always vague, and they might refer you to a code of conduct that doesn't actually make mention of any banned words.

What a joke, since when is "bugger" considered vulgar?
Maybe somebody should have told Toyota not to use that word in their TV commercials.

Sorry, off topic guys, but that comment did make me have a (much needed) laugh!

And good luck to CDU holders for a recovery.
 
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