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CDS - Comdek Limited

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There is always going to be risk in anything you invest in.

But CDS have ticked all the boxes.

Should there be any upheaval SA govt will do all it can to protect infrastructure.

CDS up 25%
 
I wouldn't fall in love with any resource stock.

Surely though its worth holding till the JORC of SA (Q2) and BFS (Q3, Q4 - can't recall) and updates on Tassie take this co to the next level? i.e. Comparable to Coal of Africa?

Also note, this will make some very powerful BEE guys a very good quid.

Still upside at these levels over the next months when the market appreciates that these guys are one of the few juniors that have a chance to turn potential into production due to the quality of the resource.

 

As I said, I think this has some great shorter-term potential- call it short to medium term if you wish.To me they are:
1. There is a very good chance of finding a a large, economic thermal coal resource.
2. CDS has the go ahead from SARB so there is no issue with foreign ownership;
3. there are a multitude of coal-fired powerstations around Middelburg/Witbank ie a ready-made market. Also infrastructure is good in that part of the world.
4. Coal prices are very strong.
5. China/India - especially India as South Africa has a large population of Indian descent.

I like CDS for these reasons.

In the longer-term (say 3 to 10 years), I personally believe that South Africa has a more uncertain future than say Queensland as it:
1. Tries to deal with a terrible AIDS issue (5 million sufferers);
2. Tries to settle up to 15 million Zimbabwean and Nigerian refugees;
3. Tries to deal with the fractious quest for power by representatives of the Zulu tribe (read Zuma); and
4. Tries to deal with the increasing frustration of all those young men and women who suffered a great deal to overthrow Apartheid in the 1980s.

If, and this is a big if, you have a Zimbabwe-type land grab and a Mugabe-type dictatorship, then investors will lose big time as assets are appropriated. Whether this eventuates, who knows? South Africa is a big economy and the encumbent government (a la oil rich middle eastern states) have a lot to lose if foreign investors no longer like the South African story.

Hope that clears it up. Maybe I am too paranoid being an ex-Saffa. [INSERT COMMENT HERE ABOUT EMOTIONAL DETACHMENT TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS]

PS: I liked the announcement today about the MD with mine development experience. They would not make a move like that they still feel like they are in the exploration stage. This is quite an amazing backdoor listing story by the way if they pull it off.
 
- Add in that 35% of the resource in SA is coking coal. They may be able to up this percentage by washing some of the thermal.
- Add in that the thermal they have isn't ash and sulfur. Very good quality coal.
- Add in that the resource will be upgrade in status. ie become bankabe this year. Hence, time to production is very low - lower than any other comparable operations in Oz.
- Add in that the strip ratios are very low for a coal operation. Other coal provinces e.g. Indonesia, USA etc have been mined extensively, so costs are higher.
- Add in that they have walk up access to export facilities.

Bushman said:
Hope that clears it up. Maybe I am too paranoid being an ex-Saffa. [INSERT COMMENT HERE ABOUT EMOTIONAL DETACHMENT TO YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS]
Click to expand...
I definitely think so. I know how Saffas really talk South Africa down. They were made refugees and forced to flee for London etc so can't really blame them. Most African states have the same problems though.

Again, a BEE is driving this and is the reason why Comdek were able to snare this. The BEE is connected with some major players in Coal. I don't think even Mugabe himself would take the tenement away from the BEE. It is one of the premier BEE's in SA and word from directors is that they will be stumping up some of the costs in order to accelerate development.

Also, as much as Africa represents a risk, the lower costs compared to Oz, looser restrictions for mining co's and the overwhelming need for energy in SA mean that there are opportunites.


Significantly, there are two appointments - both with major experience in Coal. See ann. Note that it should read "RSP was taken over by XStrata for approx 1.081 billion".
 

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this is a hype pure and simple. nowhere do i read that Comdek have a port allocation. without an allocation how are they going to receive export thermal prices? are people buying on hype without considering these things. Richards bay terminal allocations are fully booked to 2012.
 
I guess they'll just sell the lot to ESKOM then.

Ride the wave mate, there's a long way to go before port allocation needs to be worried about.

 
lol stressful watching this one ~

sellers have died out ~

up another 25% again today... impresssive ~
 
blehgg said:
lol stressful watching this one ~

sellers have died out ~

up another 25% again today... impresssive ~
Click to expand...

Back to back days, unbelievable



http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story/1/63807/Comdek-acquires-S-Africa-company
http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story/1/63850/Jury-Matthews-join-Comdek-board
 
I think basically a couple of mining honchos took over a failed tech company to use as their vehicle for the SA deal - you know, like buying a shelf company.

 

I imagine that they would be working on it - would they have anything out of the ground before 2012 anyway?
 
Should be interesting week with resource upgrade due out! Great little company....................


David
 
My oath this is a great little company, David!


I hoping for something very special from the resource upgrade this week.

The company has stated they are targeting a billlion tonnes In SA

They have had enough time to anaylse the data they received from BHP.
 
some serious buying going on in CDS this morning, looks like the upward re-rating is continuing after the company recently received SARB approval for their SA coal project.
 
what an amazing stock CDS has been, trading at around 2c when they first announced their SA coal acquisition and this afternoon hitting 36c.

there was talk earlier in the week via a west australian news article that some institutions are starting to take a nibble at CDS.
 
this is my best ever perfomance out of a stock (in at 10 cents in december).

if only I could find more magic darts
 
Does anyone know what today's reversal was all about?
Was it just profit taking after the recent price surge or was it for more fundamental reasons?
 
swhmale said:
Does anyone know what today's reversal was all about?
Was it just profit taking after the recent price surge or was it for more fundamental reasons?
Click to expand...

The stock went up 165% last month. It has nothing to do with fundamentals, just a healthy retrace.

She almost touched 50 cents today
 
It was a big opening but a long overdue pull back.
Announcement on reserves still imminent, was due out during the second quarter...
 
I haven't done much research on this one but With current market conditions do you guys reckon its too late to jump on aboard this train, Im thinking of buying a nice bundle around the 34-35c mark. Or do you think I should wait a bit more for this one to maybe go down further (if it is?)

Thanks for your views guys
 
Can't tell you what to do mate.

Your research should tell you if 34 is a good entry price.

However,

If I was thinking about buying, I would want o get in before the resource upgrade.

just my and DYOR
 
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