CCU - Cobar Consolidated Resources

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi folks,

CCU ..... floated today, with an intraday rush of blood,
but failed to hold onto the highs, finishing around 25 cents.

Looking ahead, CCU will probably range-trade sideways,
until October 2006, when we will be alert for some good
news, as several positive time cycles come into play:

14072006 ..... minor and positive (intraday)

24072006 ..... positive news/moves ... finance-related???

2807-01082006 ..... 2 negative cycles here, testing support??

15-17082006 ..... 2 cycles ... news of minor difficulties??

29-30082006 ..... spotlight on CCU, may bring negative news???
..... testing lows again???


11092006 ..... negative and finance-related ... testing lows???

15-18092006 ..... 2 minor cycles here .... ???

29092006 ..... minor


05-06102006 ..... 2 cycles here may bring positive news

2710-01112006 ..... spotlight on 3 very positive cycles here,
may bring an aggressive rally ...???

22112006 ..... first of many negative CCU cycles in
November/December 2006.

happy trading

yogi

 

[MACW]

I have been keeping an eye on this company recently and today noticed that they called a trading halt. Would anyone have a possible idea if their upcoming announcement might be a positive or negative announcement.

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi folks,

CCU ..... on the move again ..... !~!

More later ...

happy days

paul

 

[hobo-jo]

Only have until the 17th of June to get your money in for the SPP for anyone that has received the current offer (for purchase at 6c). I took the full allocation of 160k shares.

Here are some notes I've collated over the last week or so:

Cobar Consolidated Resources Ltd (ASX: CCU)

- Junior Silver/minerals explorer looking to become large scale Silver producer
- Production potential by 2011
- Inferred resource at Wonawinta site of 31M ounces of silver
- Expected 5 year mine life, 3.3m/oz per year
- Expected $21m cost to start operating for a new processing plant
- At current metal prices, the net present value of the project is $60M
- Other minerals deposits are located at their sites which may have production potential


Positives
- Higher grade resources are close to the surface, which should allow for low cost, open pit mining.
- CCU owns majority interest (70%) in Wonawinta silver project, owned in JV with CBH Resources
- April 22nd saw CCU buy out the CBH claw-back provision; this secures CCUs rights to the 70% stake (previously CBH was able to clawback part of that ownership depending on the sites resources)
- At 6c that gives CCU shareholders the chance to buy in at the same price as the 2008 Nov/Dec lows. There are very few other silver/gold stocks which can be bought at their prices over that period.
- Projected cash cost per ounce (net of lead credits) were reduced last year from $8.30p/oz to $6.25p/oz, current AUD silver price is around $18 per ounce, giving around an $12 profit per ounce
- Eye Investment Fund own significant (8%) stake in CCU, EIF also owns 10% of SLR, an explorer gone producer who's share price has recently gone up around 400% in 5 months
- 70% of CCU is held by the top 20 shareholders, a good sign from those that would know the company well (the director alone holds a 20% stake)
- Further exploration opportunities – 70km of strike to explore to north & south of existing site. HUGE exploration potential!
- Potential to find other silver/resource deposits within it’s several other areas of exploration.
- Interest in the stock appears to be picking up with stock volumes increasing
- Australian based production would be much safer than some other international silver projects
- Experienced Director Ian Lawrence (former Snr WMC Resources Executive - 20 years)


Negatives
- Company is a junior explorer and there is plenty that could go wrong before production
- Could have difficulty getting finance for start up costs and purchase processing plant
- Resources could not be as large as expected or cost more than expected to pull out of the ground
- SPP funds are being raised to complete a feasibility study, although seems unlikely, the mine may not be feasible
- 70% of CCU is held by the top 20 shareholders, while a good sign from large holders it makes the stock trade quite illiquid and some big moves can come from very small trades, liquidity should improve one the SPP shares are on the market from the 24th of June


Other CCU Resources
Official website of Cobar Consolidated Resources:
www.ccrlimited.com.au
Audio interview with the Managing Director Ian Lawrence (Aug 2008):
www.brr.com.au/event/49122/wonawinta-silver-project-a-pathway-to-production
Recent article re SPP, Directors shareholding & more:
http://business.theage.com.au/busin...y-into-uranium-hunt-20090510-az96.html?page=2


Thoughts on Silver:
My personal opinion is that we will see gold at a MINIMUM of its inflation adjusted high from 1980 (which would be approximately US$2500) within the next 3 years. Currently the Silver/Gold ratio is quite a bit higher than the historical average and if history has told us anything, we will see silver slingshot to a ratio of as low as 15 or 20 to 1 during times of interest in precious metals (even if for a brief period). Even if we looked at a more conservative ratio, let’s say it only reaches 25:1. That would give silver a price of approximately $100 per ounce (with gold at $2500). Can you imagine CCU’s profits and share price if it was producing $330M worth of silver annually with a 70% stake in the profits…? This could be a 10, 20 or 50 bagger!


Consider the SPP offer if you have it or look out for potential cheap entry when the SPP shares hit the market on the 24/06. I doubt it will fall back to 6c, but you might get high 7s if you're lucky.

DYOR

 

[hobo-jo]

40% increase in resource announced today after further drilling.
44.3m/oz is a bucket load of silver!

 

[hobo-jo]

Seems to be not many here with an interest in quality junior stocks?

SILVER SECRETS

Australia is the world's fifth-biggest producer of silver. But you would not know that by scanning the ASX lists to find a pure silver play. Our silver is produced as a byproduct at base metal operations such as Mount Isa, Cannington and the old Silver City itself, Broken Hill.

All that has presented a bit of a marketing problem for the managing director of Cobar Consolidated Resources, Ian ''Mudguts'' Lawrence. He reckons the local market does not know how to value a silver play, prompting the metallurgist who was once general manager of operations for WMC, to spend time on a roadshow to eastern state investors outlining his thoughts on the matter.

CCU is well on its way to becoming a silver producer from its Wonawinta silver project near Cobar in central NSW, with a feasibility study into a 3.3 million ounce-a-year mine costing some $21 million under way. The initial annual output is a fraction of what comes from the mines named above, but with a market capitalisation of $16.5 million, CCU does not need the scale that the big boys like Xstrata and BHP need.

Lawrence believes the current gold/silver price ratio of 60:1 is a good starting point. Take the broadly agreed enterprise value/to resource valuation metric for gold stocks of $120 an ounce of the yellow metal, and the average enterprise value/resource valuation metric for silver stocks could then be said to be about $2 an ounce.

Now comes the point. Take CCU's 44 million ounce initial silver resource base and the implied value you end up with is $88 million, or 75c a share. CCU closed on Friday at 14c.

Still time to enter at a good price...but for how much longer?

 

[hobo-jo]

Another increase in their silver resource today.

Wonawinta resource upgrade
• 14% increase in silver mineral inventory
• High conversion from inferred to indicated resource
• Higher silver grade
Cobar Consolidated Resources Limited (ASX: CCU) today announced a revised
resource estimate for the Wonawinta silver project. The resource estimate was
compiled using the results from phase one of the RC resource definition drilling
program. Phase one drilling focused on the southern pit area of the project.

Cash cost to retrieve the silver is currently estimated at $6.25 per ounce (net lead credits), but with lead prices now significantly higher than when that information was compiled we could see cash costs revised significantly lower.

Also as you can see below CCU appears to have formed a large cup and handle pattern. There is very little resistance before 40-50c once the 21c barrier is broken.

If silver is up overnight I would expect CCU to be well into the green again tomorrow.



Cobar Consolidated rising in stature on soaring silver price
Monday, October 12, 2009

Fast emerging New South Wales silver producer Cobar Consolidated Resources (ASX: CCU) has increased its silver mineral resource at the Wonawinta project.

Located south of Cobar in western New South Wales, Wonawinta now boasts a resource of 50m ounces of silver (previously 44m ounces) at an average silver grade of 52g/t, up from 48g/t.

60% of the silver resource inventory has been upgraded from inferred to indicated resource status.

A recent scoping study indicated favourable project economics producing 3.1moz/ pa, with average cash cost at US$6.25/oz and a mine life of 5-6 years from four open pits. Estimated processing plant capital cost is $21m.

However, there are signs that exploration at Wonawinta, might lift the current resource of 50m oz by another 20-30 m oz.

The lift in indicated resource category should now provide Cobar with the confidence to achieve that production schedule. The feasibility study is due for completion in mid 2010, with production potential by 2011.

A second phase of the RC drilling program will start in the central pit area of the project this week.

Also, in Cobar's favour, the stunning rise in the gold price has lifted the silver price to US$17.80/oz. So there would appear to be significant scope for re-rating of Cobar on these fundamentals relative to current valuation.

 

[hobo-jo]

Got a mention in today's issue of Australian Small Cap Investor, with the heading: "You Could Make a 813% gain by October 2011 if You Buy Two 'Silver' Stocks In The Next Thirty Days"

Hope some users are reading my posts and doing their due diligence on this one

I feel like I'm talking to myself in an empty room...hellllloooo...ooo..oo...o

Broke out of the above cup and handle with today's close also.

 

[eddyeagle]

Yeah this one received the standard ASI treatment - a 37% instant jump after the release of the report!

Some big trades going through as well - several parcels of $60-70K!!!

 

[vincent191]

Got a mention in today's issue of Australian Small Cap Investor, with the heading: "You Could Make a 813% gain by October 2011 if You Buy Two 'Silver' Stocks In The Next Thirty Days"

Hope some users are reading my posts and doing their due diligence on this one

I feel like I'm talking to myself in an empty room...hellllloooo...ooo..oo...o

Broke out of the above cup and handle with today's close also.

hobo jo---- this room might be empty but I can hear you laughing all the way to the bank. You have already made a 500% profit and you have a bagful of them. Congratulation, you can shout me a beer or two.

Looks like there is further upside to perhaps push 40 cents soon?? Very exciting. My only concern is, will the price of silver hold up at $18?? It is fast approaching it's 5 year high of around $20 from memory. Unlike gold, silver is not considered a precious metal and supply is greater than demand. I see a bubble starting to form and as with all bubbles it will eventually burst.

So I don't think I will mortage my house and put that on silver but in the meantime I am enjoying the ride.

 

[skyQuake]

hobo jo---- this room might be empty but I can hear you laughing all the way to the bank. You have already made a 500% profit and you have a bagful of them. Congratulation, you can shout me a beer or two.

Looks like there is further upside to perhaps push 40 cents soon?? Very exciting. My only concern is, will the price of silver hold up at $18?? It is fast approaching it's 5 year high of around $20 from memory. Unlike gold, silver is not considered a precious metal and supply is greater than demand. I see a bubble starting to form and as with all bubbles it will eventually burst.

So I don't think I will mortage my house and put that on silver but in the meantime I am enjoying the ride.

Don't think long term fundamental concerns are what CCU speculators are worrying about at the moment. Everyone's just enjoying the ride. Watch out when it makes a lower low or gaps up significantly though.

 

[SimonSaysTrade]

Watch out when it makes a lower low or gaps up significantly though.

What's a 'gap up' ?

Worth getting in on this one now? This would be my first trade ever...

Thanks in advance.

 

[prawn_86]

Worth getting in on this one now? This would be my first trade ever...

Simon,

Please note that it is against ASIC guidelines for members to give financial advice, such as buy, sell etc.

I suggest you do a search for 'gaps' using the site search function.

Thanks

Prawn

 

[acfnais]

CCU.AX has closed above the upper band by 12.3%. If the price is in a uptrend; then this upward trend has a good chance to continue. above the upper band by 12.3%. If price is in a uptrend band; this upward trend in price might continue. However a short term pullback inside the band is likely.Bollinger Bands are 308.5% wider than normal. The large width of the bands suggest high volatility as compared to CCU.AX's normal range. The bands have been in this wide range for 12 bars. This is a sign that the current trend might continue.

Now at a resistance point of 38c. Once past here then on the way towards 44c.

 

[vincent191]

CCU.AX has closed above the upper band by 12.3%. If the price is in a uptrend; then this upward trend has a good chance to continue. above the upper band by 12.3%. If price is in a uptrend band; this upward trend in price might continue. However a short term pullback inside the band is likely.Bollinger Bands are 308.5% wider than normal. The large width of the bands suggest high volatility as compared to CCU.AX's normal range. The bands have been in this wide range for 12 bars. This is a sign that the current trend might continue.

Now at a resistance point of 38c. Once past here then on the way towards 44c.

It has now broken 39c and buyers still outstrip sellers. I think this will breakout to >40c. Guys please don't listen to me, I am not a Financial Advisor. I hold CCU and this is just a discussion.

There are many much better informed people out there. I am just flowing with current and enjoying the swim. Nice to be on a winner

 

[vincent191]

Despite getting a speeding ticket yesterday from ASIC it is still powering up. And commodity prices have weaken as well overnight. It has been a great ride. Why can't all my holdings behave like this. No use looking at the charts I guess it will peak when it peaks. Anyone got anything different?

 

[vincent191]

Another resources upgrade and the price of silver keeps climbing. I reckon CCU will retest the 40 cents mark again very soon. Exciting times for this small cap junior. Demand for silver is tipped to strengthen, hurry up CCU and announce firm production plans. I need the money!!!! CCU is better than sex.

 

[liberdee]

Does anyone have any ideas as to why this is performing so poorly of late? The SP has plummeted quite drastically without any seeming reason? At least none according to this (very) new trader

 

[skyQuake]

Does anyone have any ideas as to why this is performing so poorly of late? The SP has plummeted quite drastically without any seeming reason? At least none according to this (very) new trader

Cause gold and silver tanked. Also keep in mind it ran VERY hard from 7c or so.
Right now its just making consecutive lower lows and lower highs. No reason to buy imo

 

[simonk83]

Does anyone have any ideas as to why this is performing so poorly of late? The SP has plummeted quite drastically without any seeming reason? At least none according to this (very) new trader

Yep, it's just because Gold (and hence Silver) has dropped a fair bit. Once Gold picks back up (and it should), CCU will as well. Nothing has changed fundamentally with the stock, so it's just a matter of sitting and waiting. A correction was probably due anyway.