CBA - Commonwealth Bank of Australia

Sean K · 18 December 2008

sails said:
Sorry Kennas - I'm not used to this 100 character rule - don't often post in the stock threads - will go back to my corner in the derivates

Yours faithfully,

Others

Ah, sorry Sails, I didn't realise you were an 'other'.

What I actually meant was, 'ladies and gents, and others'.

Hope that's better.

kennas

Sean K · 18 December 2008

I've caught the knife at 26.10.

No blood oozing yet.

Have band aides handy.

And 000 on speed dial.

Ashsaege · 18 December 2008

kennas said:
I've caught the knife at 26.10.

No blood oozing yet.

Have band aides handy.

And 000 on speed dial.

I'm expecting to see a short term bounce. But I dont think we have seen the bottom yet... remember bottom pickers get smelly fingers!

I don't hold CBA, though if they drop well below $20 then i might get on!

cuttlefish · 18 December 2008

If buying in for a long term investment I reckon its brave. Short term trading I have no opinion one way or another.

They will probably need to do more capital raisings and there will probably be more unpleasant bad debt surprises before this economic downturn is over imo.

honey85 · 18 December 2008

Good one Nick. Love those technical stuff.

To all newcomers like myself, please do not take ppl's advice directly

Sean K · 2 January 2009

Nick Radge said:
I feel the best trade here is awaiting the completion of the larger degree wave-4 and attempting to short sell, most likely with options or warrants, for the last run lower. A very aggressive trader may attempt to catch the bounce but I'd be very wary.

A decent bounce as you suggested Nick.

When do you look at a short in this circumstance?

Cheers,
kennas

M34N · 2 January 2009

FWIW, bought in a while ago at around $27 mark and sold out this morning abit above the $29 level. Has out-performed some of its peers lately (namely NAB); don't trust holding any stock for too long. CBA seems to love get stuck in those trading ranges for many months as has happened in the past year or so... or at the very least waiting for it to show a clear sign either up or down.

honey85 · 2 January 2009

I would love it to match more closely with nick's: Quite suprised that CBA is doing better than other banks!

Aussiest · 23 January 2009

What is going on with the CBA?

What does Funds Under Administration mean? As per their latest ASX release?

tcoates · 23 January 2009

RE:

What does Funds Under Administration mean? As per their latest ASX release?

Check out this document.

Funds Management Industry Market Share: Which one to use?

In the funds management industry, there are many measures of funds under management. (FUM) and funds under administration (FUA) published by various ...

http://www.b-d-p.com/images/uploaded/FundsMgtIndustryMarketShare_20061101.pdf

It might reveal what you are looking for?

mattlaw · 23 January 2009

FUA means that is how much investors have invested with them. Also referred to as FUM (Funds Under Management)

Aussiest · 23 January 2009

mattlaw said:
FUA means that is how much investors have invested with them. Also referred to as FUM (Funds Under Management)

Thanks Matt and tcoate (having a look at your doc now).

That clears things up a bit.

When you say "investors", do you mean "shareholders"?

Or, does it mean people who have their super funds there, or some other type of "investor"?

cuttlefish · 23 January 2009

All banks are tanking today (along with the market). (in fact as I type CBA is down 2.8% and the XAO is down 2.8% - so nothing exceptional about todays fall in CBA's share price).

My view is that all banks are going to continue to suffer - their business is loaning lots of people/businesses lots of money. Their profitability relies on those people/businesses being able to pay that money back, and if they can't, on being able to sell the assets that secure those loans to recoup the funds. Businesses are failing, people are losing their jobs, asset prices are plumetting. The banks are very leveraged to all of this. Look to what has happened to the US and UK banks to get an idea of what we are in store for here in my view.

Aussiejeff · 23 January 2009

cuttlefish said:
All banks are tanking today (along with the market). (in fact as I type CBA is down 2.8% and the XAO is down 2.8% - so nothing exceptional about todays fall in CBA's share price).

My view is that all banks are going to continue to suffer - their business is loaning lots of people/businesses lots of money. Their profitability relies on those people/businesses being able to pay that money back, and if they can't, on being able to sell the assets that secure those loans to recoup the funds. Businesses are failing, people are losing their jobs, asset prices are plumetting. The banks are very leveraged to all of this. Look to what has happened to the US and UK banks to get an idea of what we are in store for here in my view.

Yeah. It's all very well for governments and banks to trumpet on about securities or treasuries being "asset backed this" and "asset backed" that.

The frightening fact is that we are facing a future where country-loads of assets are going to be tipped into the mega "For Sale" basket - then into an even more mega "Can't Be Sold At Almost Any Price Even In A Panic Market" basket.

This is the reason why so many banks are so fearful of lending to small, medium and large businesses - regardless of how much Gummints exhort them to LEND, LEND, LEND. Many of those business "assets" they are gaining covenant over may well become relatively worthless within a short span of time.

IMO

aj

M34N · 23 January 2009

CBA now trading near 10 year lows - on par with a lot of banks across the ASX and even the S&P500... will be interesting to see if these levels get breached. I think technically speaking we may get a bounce off these levels, and today considering the markets are closed on Monday for Australia Day, no-one is willing to hold for any 'skeletons' that may pop out overseas during the long weekend.

Scary chart attached... very bearish to say the least.

MR. · 23 January 2009

Aussiejeff said:
Yeah. It's all very well for governments and banks to trumpet on about securities or treasuries being "asset backed this" and "asset backed" that.

The frightening fact is that we are facing a future where country-loads of assets are going to be tipped into the mega "For Sale" basket - then into an even more mega "Can't Be Sold At Almost Any Price Even In A Panic Market" basket.

I'd rather have deposits backed by the Australian Gov' than some of these other countries! Look at our Gov's debt position, although this will now change. Just put on with CBA 3 years at 5.5%. I have faith in our Gov', sorry, not the bank!

Logique · 25 January 2009

Look at the current state of failing companies in the loan book, such as Babcock and Brown, and if there others out there that we (and CBA) don't know about yet. And next month CBA will have to announce results and a dividend.

So a test of the $20 level wouldn't surprise me, that is 10 year lows. If it happens, I'd expect sub $20 CBA shares to cause a lot of economic concern.

I have attached a chart, a fair bit of long term price support at 23-24 (currently at 24.07).

drsmith · 25 January 2009

On Friday evening there was a brief comment on the ABC TV news that in the last two months of 2008 Bankwest had a 20% rise in the number of home loan borrowers having trouble meeting their repayments.

Julia · 25 January 2009

MR. said:
I'd rather have deposits backed by the Australian Gov' than some of these other countries! Look at our Gov's debt position, although this will now change. Just put on with CBA 3 years at 5.5%. I have faith in our Gov', sorry, not the bank!

Three years seems a long time to tie the funds up. Is this money you'd previously had in shares, or do you have a long term preference for cash?

MR. · 25 January 2009

Julia said:
Three years seems a long time to tie the funds up. Is this money you'd previously had in shares, or do you have a long term preference for cash?

Hello Julia. Have read many of your posts before. I do recall you also re-newing some term deposit/s recently as well.

What term have you locked into?

But you are very correct in saying that it is a long time to lock up funds. It is by far the longest I have locked up funds for before. (Hope I don't break it) but if I do it will be worth it. Three years is such a long time away! Would have locked in a little earlier when the rates were better but I was unable.

Yes part of this money was in shares. But I have had 80% of total investments in cash for past 12 months on short termers with the remaining 20% in shares. Have a couple of short termers also at 3mths. For the 3 years I have locked in 40%.

Perhaps you could reply in the thread "Interest Rates" General Chat!

CBA - Commonwealth Bank of Australia

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