CASH is King

nunthewiser · 2 February 2009

You guys seem to take for granted that inflation will track higher than bank intrest ? whats the latest IMF guesstimation for OZ GDP?? in the negatives wasnt it ?? ..

anyways .......... Dear M.R you stick to your plans m8 .keep that term deposit cruising along , enjoying your outperforming returns compared to overall market . enjoy your preservation of your capital

BEST of all tho ENJOY being set up to flee that deposit at ANY given time (- small % intrest penalty) and pouncing on them bargains that WILL appear a lil later rather than sooner

SoBadAtTrading · 2 February 2009

CBA is advertising a 5 yr term deposit of 6 % interest in AFR! I think other banks should be following suit soon.

nunthewiser · 2 February 2009

Just to add a lil something to my last post ........

any of you guys rang a plumber lately ??
a year/2 years ago try and get a plumber may have been lucky to find one that was available there and then .then he rocked up , handed over a huge bill because he could

i rang 6 plumbers in the last week for quotes ..... had 2 come out within the hour , the other 4 were there within 24 hours ...... i was able to negotiate a fair price .

anyone buy a brand new car a yearor 2 back ?

bet ya can buy another brand new car cheaper today

only examples ........

hey i could be wrong and i just happen to have been lucky with some bargains lately

MR. · 2 February 2009

nunthewiser said:
You guys seem to take for granted that inflation will track higher than bank intrest ? whats the latest IMF guesstimation for OZ GDP?? in the negatives wasnt it ?? ..

anyways .......... Dear M.R you stick to your plans m8 .keep that term deposit cruising along , enjoying your outperforming returns compared to overall market . enjoy your preservation of your capital

BEST of all tho ENJOY being set up to flee that deposit at ANY given time (- small % intrest penalty) and pouncing on them bargains that WILL appear a lil later rather than sooner

Sure will.....

and if I don't end up like my "Avatar" try not to end up like yours.
In general people "Not sure how healthy it is."

seeya in 3 yrs...... no hangon I've still got to invest 60% somewhere?

beerwm · 2 February 2009

MR. said:
IMO lets play "black or red" on Roulette wheel. We will put a dollar on black. It loses so we will put 2 dollars on black. (one for the one we just lost and one for that dollar I'm going to win) If we lose a second time lets just keep doubling and when black comes up we win. You can't lose!

But what happens when one day you find yourself putting the house on the line just to make that single dollar? "how can so many reds keep coming up" So you put the house on the line because you don't except losing half the value of the house. And red still turned up!
(and the colours are correct)

Thankyou for confirming my belief that you know nothing about risk, position sizing and general share trading.

If that is the way you have been trading then it is no wonder you find yourself in a safe 3yr. 5% pa. cash account.

nunthewiser · 2 February 2009

beerwm said:
Thankyou for confirming my belief that you know nothing about risk, position sizing and general share trading.

If that is the way you have been trading then it is no wonder you find yourself in a safe 3yr. 5% pa. cash account.

Perhaps the dude is a long term investor sort and not an actual trader?

MR. · 2 February 2009

beerwm said:
Thankyou for confirming my belief that you know nothing about risk, position sizing and general share trading.

If that is the way you have been trading then it is no wonder you find yourself in a safe 3yr. 5% pa. cash account.

Yes everything is a calculated risk..................

beerwm · 2 February 2009

MR. said:
Yes everything is a calculated risk..................

i dont understand your sarcasm?

Bushman · 2 February 2009

nunthewiser said:
You guys seem to take for granted that inflation will track higher than bank intrest ? whats the latest IMF guesstimation for OZ GDP?? in the negatives wasnt it ?? ..

US money supply has doubled in the last six-months - now most of it sits as deposits at calls while the encumbent banks eat themselves but Obama will move heaven and earth to get those cheap dollars out there so the US can continue to 'inflate the pain away, inflate the pain away' (think of that grungy song from 90's to get the true audio experience I am having at the moment).

But, yep, GDP is going to slide until the tsunami of money can be unleashed. How long will it take? NFI.... 12-24 months? My -0.003467 cents...

nunthewiser · 2 February 2009

Bushman said:
My -0.003467 cents...

hahahahahahahahahah

have a great day

nunthewiser · 2 February 2009

nunthewiser said:
You guys seem to take for granted that inflation will track higher than bank intrest ? whats the latest IMF guesstimation for OZ GDP?? in the negatives wasnt it ?? ..

anyways .......... Dear M.R you stick to your plans m8 .keep that term deposit cruising along , enjoying your outperforming returns compared to overall market . enjoy your preservation of your capital

BEST of all tho ENJOY being set up to flee that deposit at ANY given time (- small % intrest penalty) and pouncing on them bargains that WILL appear a lil later rather than sooner

nunthewiser said:
Just to add a lil something to my last post ........

any of you guys rang a plumber lately ??
a year/2 years ago try and get a plumber may have been lucky to find one that was available there and then .then he rocked up , handed over a huge bill because he could

i rang 6 plumbers in the last week for quotes ..... had 2 come out within the hour , the other 4 were there within 24 hours ...... i was able to negotiate a fair price .

anyone buy a brand new car a yearor 2 back ?

bet ya can buy another brand new car cheaper today

only examples ........

hey i could be wrong and i just happen to have been lucky with some bargains lately

so no arguments/differing points of view to these posts? ( except Bushman)
so are them term deposits set at 3 years and X % not so bad now ?

any one even consider the fact that sometimes inflation grinds to a halt ?

Or it could never happen in australia and everyone should all become traders and make a gigazillion bucks instead ?

so many questions....................

MR. · 2 February 2009

nunthewiser said:
so no arguments/differing points of view to these posts? ( except Bushman)
so are them term deposits set at 3 years and X % not so bad now ?

any one even consider the fact that sometimes inflation grinds to a halt ?

Or it could never happen in australia and everyone should all become traders and make a gigazillion bucks instead ?

so many questions....................

You really can't help it can you? I mean get off the computer?
Although MR. Silly's back again as well. Just reading a few posts/again

nunthewiser · 2 February 2009

MR. said:
You really can't help it can you? I mean get off the computer?
Although MR. Silly's back again as well. Just reading a few posts/again

LOL nah m8 . that av in my profile is a self portrait

been busy last few hours so now i came back to read up

MR. · 2 February 2009

nulla nulla said:
The Cany investor that moves his/her portfolio weighting arround as the economic conditions change, will outperform the investors that are reactive rather than proactive.
Time heals all wounds (one way or the other) if you are down in the market, it is likely you will recover, it will just take time.

How well do you do moving your portfolio weighting around during a crash?
I also hope people recover their loses as quickly as possibe "without" increasing their risk.

Bushman said:
To quote Mr Nulla, it is 'location, location, location' in the long-run, nasty deleveraged valuation correction in the short-term. -

Deleverage ? Nasty!!! ? Wouldn't put money in property just now!

Bushman said:
fixed interest lookin' good for solid blue-chip citizens; my rule is if they were going to struggle debt-wise, the stress would now evident. Two things to watch out for - 1. the earnings recession; and 2. can they pay the divvies out of accounting profit that will be whacked by one-off write-offs of intangibles. Long-term, looking sweet mate; short-term will still be volatile.

So you mean by "now be evident" any losses would be already factored into the price. But Ahhh rule 1. watch out for the earnings recession!

you are doing such a good job convincing me to change my ways!

Bushman said:
Then again if you cannot stomach risk anymore (ie losing your dosh), stay in those term deposits. Just don't lock them in for too long as inflation looms

Summary - cash - A man or woman can only bear what he or she can bear.

What do you mean by "anymore" are you directing your comments to me or are you just speaking generally?

robots said:
hello,

great work bushman,

as the example of WBC indicates 310k down to 160k, now it "may" take 10yrs to get back to 310k,

and then as you track cash returns vs others, the preservation of capital is looking the major issue,

ps i wouldnt have a clue

thankyou
robots

Not much!!!!

Now for Beerwn,

beerwm said:
Thankyou for confirming my belief that you know nothing about risk, position sizing and general share trading.

If that is the way you have been trading then it is no wonder you find yourself in a safe 3yr. 5% pa. cash account.

I know nothing about "risk" "position sizing" or "general share trading" because why? I give an example of a near perfect solution to make money? You can calculate the risk can't you? Point being you might think you're going to do well but sometimes it just doesn't work. (but we all know that / nothing is done without some risk) Position sizing? So do I pick up a text book and position a portfolio according to its print (no matter what?) and finally I'm not interested in trading shares day in day out! I try to be a long term holder.

Perhaps back to your first post:

beerwm said:
Locking your money away for 3 years doesnt seem very prudent.

While you can 'try' and predict the future, unless you respond to changes it wont do you any good.

Cash maybe the flavour of the moment but 3 years is along time, is 5% pa. going to make you happy?

My interests lie in trading, btw.

How much do you want (are you going) to make as a return? Does the average trader make 10% and perhaps more? Do you know? Can (you) give me some "true" stats of how (you) have done over the past 24 months to help MR. Silly here!

nunthewiser · 2 February 2009

i can give you a couple of stats that been floating around a while

90% of stock market traders fail (daytraders was the quote i heard)

this next one was told to me by someone that should know

the average CFD account is closed within 6 months.might have been 4 but i was just being genourous by saying 6

lets just hope all these traders here are in the good 10% hey

MR. · 2 February 2009

nunthewiser said:
i can give you a couple of stats that been floating around a while

90% of stock market traders fail (daytraders was the quote i heard)

this next one was told to me by someone that should know

the average CFD account is closed within 6 months.might have been 4 but i was just being genourous by saying 6

lets just hope all these traders here are in the good 10% hey

No....... Comeon ....... they are well above 10%. Off memory the quote was "average of 10%" so that could mean we would lose 10% and they win 20. Or is that visa versa?

I put money into a term deposit and suddenly the roof just caved in! Anyone would have thought I'd lost money in the stock market.
No loses there from anyone of late!

Wysiwyg · 3 February 2009

nunthewiser said:
the average CFD account is closed within 6 months.might have been 4 but i was just being genourous by saying 6

lets just hope all these traders here are in the good 10% hey

Well nun I can type that I have blown 2 accounts, bad discipline and bad money management.
Yes I have learned valuable lessons and yes they are embedded in every neuron (all 20 of them) never to be repeated again.At least I helped someone into the top 10%.

Bushman · 3 February 2009

MR. said:
What do you mean by "anymore" are you directing your comments to me or are you just speaking generally?

Speaking generally mate, my point being that if you are in cash then you don't have to worry about volatility while the markets come to terms with the extent of an earnings recession. Call it the 'sleep easy' factor.

No offense intended. Cheers B'man

Trevor_S · 3 February 2009

I guess this is kinda why I put some of my money in banking shares (WBC not CBA) recently rather then bank deposits (the majority of my portfolio is still in cash, a CMT with Rabobank at 5%, no doubt to tank tomorrow after the RBA decision today )

http://business.smh.com.au/business/time-for-a-big-one-20090203-7vxp.html

The Commonwealth Bank let the cat out of the bag after the market closed last night when it announced its banking profit in the first half would be up a massive 20%. It was just the funds management arm that looked like reducing the ``cash profit'' by 16%, but even that would be 20% more than banking analysts have been tipping.

In a normal recession, the decline in lending would damage banks, but this time the Big Four are increasing market share by more than the market itself is shrinking.

The upside? The CBA might have just settled the great dividend sustainability debate at least for 2009. It looks like being a very rewarding time to be buying bank shares at their recent depressed levels.

even if the dividends were halved, it would be paying a lot more than money in the bank

It all depends on the perceived risk I guess, I am "guessing" that in 3 years my investment will have earned more in dividends and seen more in capital appreciation then if the money was in the bank... but I am "guessing"...I am however more confident about 5 years and very confident about 10 years though where as if I put the money in the bank, I know for sure I have no franking credits, maximum tax on the interest component and capital depreciation (due to CPI increases)

MR. · 3 February 2009

Trevor_S said:
It all depends on the perceived risk I guess, I am "guessing" that in 3 years my investment will have earned more in dividends and seen more in capital appreciation then if the money was in the bank... but I am "guessing"...I am however more confident about 5 years and very confident about 10 years though where as if I put the money in the bank, I know for sure I have no franking credits, maximum tax on the interest component and capital depreciation (due to CPI increases)

There is nothing worse than looking back and not doing something that you thought was right at the time..... A major market correction does not happen very often at all, so go with your gut..... You may only have a small window!

ps : MR. vs Buffett, he doesn't stand a chance.
I feel I've taken advantage of the "poor" bloke! .... "America's Stuffed"

Cheers
MR. Sherlock Holmes
MR. Obiwan
MR. Laughable
MR. Silly

Its a healthy plan and I look forward to joining the fun.

CASH is King

nunthewiser

SoBadAtTrading

nunthewiser

MR.

beerwm

nunthewiser

MR.

beerwm

Bushman

nunthewiser

nunthewiser

MR.

nunthewiser

MR.

nunthewiser

MR.

Wysiwyg

Everyone wants money

Bushman

Trevor_S

MR.

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