Can't Explain It But I'm Suddenly Incredibly Bearish

[Gordon Gekko]

As the subject says, all of a sudden today (pretty much soon after today's close on the ASX) I began to feel bearish. Not just hopefully bearish, but really, really bearish - I've not been this bearish since I read that:

"David Koch is one of Australia's foremost business and finance commentators. One of the 10 most influential people of all time in the financial services industry"


Hope this thread can bring those together with similar views on where the market may trend either up but in my view down over the next 3 to 6 months.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...sues-fresh-alert-on-global-stock-markets.html

"I expect this risk rally to continue into – and maybe through – a large part of August. What happens after that? The next ugly leg of the bear market begins as we get into the July through September 'tipping zone', driven by the failure of the data to validate the V (shaped recovery) that is now fully priced into markets."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chinas-credit-bubbleicious-trade-balance-pain

In essence what is going on, is that the brief pick up in German and US GDPs on the trade balance side, are being facilitated exclusively by the credit bubble in China. By dint of China being able to recognize GDP at production instead of expenditures (like normal Western countries), China is now trying to back fill into the trade void left from the collapse of Western economies by promoting the same kind of irresponsible lending (and borrowing) that lead the US economy to its current sorry state. This will eventually end very, very badly.

Best of luck

P.S. Thanks to Michael D! His thoughts would be interesting!

G

 

[Donga]

Have a couple of beers, a good night's sleep and you may feel better in the morning..

 

[skc]

I found that my mood changes depending on what article I've read. There is no doubt in my mind that the economy shares the same construction as a house of cards (my avatar refers), but I am not game enough to stand in the way of the market. Afterall, the market is ruled by the crowd which can remain irrational far longer than my next phone bill falls due.

BTW, with an Avatar like yours GG, does feeling Bearish really mean feeling horny?

 

[vicb]

"David Koch is one of Australia's foremost business and finance commentators. One of the 10 most influential people of all time in the financial services industry"

Is that the clown off the morning tv show?
Where the hell did that quote come from?
That is just scary!!

 

[wayneL]

"David Koch is one of Australia's foremost business and finance commentators. One of the 10 most influential people of all time in the financial services industry"

Is that the clown off the morning tv show?
Where the hell did that quote come from?
That is just scary!!

Cramer is scarier.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

Have a couple of beers, a good night's sleep and you may feel better in the morning..

That's the best advice I have heard all day!!!So I'll drink to that



BTW, with an Avatar like yours GG, does feeling Bearish really mean feeling horny?[/QUOTE]

Lets not bring wives or mothers into this discussion!


You both might find the following article on groupthink interesting:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/02/business/02view.html


"The field of social psychology provides a possible answer. In his classic 1972 book, “Groupthink,” Irving L. Janis, the Yale psychologist, explained how panels of experts could make colossal mistakes. People on these panels, he said, are forever worrying about their personal relevance and effectiveness, and feel that if they deviate too far from the consensus, they will not be given a serious role. They self-censor personal doubts about the emerging group consensus if they cannot express these doubts in a formal way that conforms with apparent assumptions held by the group."


This quote might be good on thoughts for the day!

"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong."

-Voltaire

Best
G

 

[gfresh]

Lol! You've been bearish for the last 6 months!

Have another beer

 

[drsmith]

BTW, with an Avatar like yours GG, does feeling Bearish really mean feeling horny?

He hasn't got the bull by the horns, he's got it on the horn.

 

[sammy84]

Lol...A perma bull saying he suddenly feels bearish! Kinda like Hitler saying he suddenly doesn't like jews

 

[Largesse]

Lol...A perma bull saying he suddenly feels bearish! Kinda like Hitler saying he suddenly doesn't like jews

care for a rethink on that one?

 

[nunthewiser]

"David Koch is one of Australia's foremost business and finance commentators. One of the 10 most influential people of all time in the financial services industry"

Is that the clown off the morning tv show?
Where the hell did that quote come from?
That is just scary!!

LOL u got the cooolest avatar

have a great evening

 

[sammy84]

care for a rethink on that one?

Thank you, I will repost;

Lol...A perma bear saying he suddenly feels bearish! Kinda like Hitler saying he suddenly doesn't like jews

 

[nunthewiser]

Thank you, I will repost;

Lol...A perma bear saying he suddenly feels bearish! Kinda like Hitler saying he suddenly doesn't like jews

them darn nepalese soccer balls eh bud ?

 

[Gordon Gekko]

Thank you, I will repost;

Lol...A perma bear saying he suddenly feels bearish! Kinda like Hitler saying he suddenly doesn't like jews

I've been a bear for 4 months or so? Does that make me a perma bear?

Why don't you get back on that Shetland pony and get out of here!!

 

[Knobby22]

The downturn/correction will occur once we have seen a few scares and the market got over it and everyone thinks the worst is over. I still think that's a while off, but who knows?

 

[sammy84]

I've been a bear for 4 months or so? Does that make me a perma bear?

Why don't you get back on that Shetland pony and get out of here!!

I had to google what a Shetland pony was. For the benefit of others who too don't know what a Shetland pony looks like, I have attached an example


You avatar and posts lead me to assume you are a perma-bear. There was very little to be bearish about today- increased volume, high close pretty much on closing on the yearly EOD high etc.
Keep calling a top mate, it will come one day, us trend followers will just keep making money till then

 

[Gordon Gekko]

I had to google what a Shetland pony was. For the benefit of others who too don't know what a Shetland pony looks like, I have attached an example
View attachment 32672

You avatar and posts lead me to assume you are a perma-bear. There was very little to be bearish about today- increased volume, high close pretty much on closing on the yearly EOD high etc.
Keep calling a top mate, it will come one day, us trend followers will just keep making money till then

Gee whiz, I don't know if it's the beer but that photo is making me hot!!
Might have to change my Avitar

 

[sammy84]

Gee whiz, I don't know if it's the beer but that photo is making me hot!!
Might have to change my Avitar

I wonder if they can be house trained....walking beer holder?
These Shetland ponies might need a their own separate thread.

 

[wayneL]

I wonder if they can be house trained....walking beer holder?
These Shetland ponies might need a their own separate thread.

Don't do it!

These are the most evil creatures in the animal kingdom. You are certain to lose a kneecap, and be aware that their teeth are on the same level as your gonads... and they will use them.

 

[Zaij]

be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. First part seems to fit, ey?