CAH - Catalpa Resources

[vicb]

I have both Catalpa shares and options, which I have been trading short and long term.
I thought I would start this thread to see if any other traders have a opinion on this stock.
CAH found good support at the .10 an .11 range but having trouble with the 12c barrier (should break that barrier very soon).
Catalpa is currently under a merger with LST this merger is taking alot longer then expected (I haven't heard any news to the reason why)
Any opinions of the direction that the stock may take when the merger is complete?

 

[jman2007]

Any opinions of the direction that the stock may take when the merger is complete?

Dammit I should have listened to myself whilst this was hovering around the 10.5c level. At least Miner will be happy however . No doubt the drivers have been the surge in the POG and the spectacular coup they have pulled off by forward selling several hundred thousand ounces at AUD $1500-$1600/oz, can't quite remember the exact details. I thought the massive number of the shares on the registry post-merger may have bogged it down in the low teens, but clearly this has not been the case.

 

[Miner]

Dammit I should have listened to myself whilst this was hovering around the 10.5c level. At least Miner will be happy however . No doubt the drivers have been the surge in the POG and the spectacular coup they have pulled off by forward selling several hundred thousand ounces at AUD $1500-$1600/oz, can't quite remember the exact details. I thought the massive number of the shares on the registry post-merger may have bogged it down in the low teens, but clearly this has not been the case.

Jman 2007

I honour your expectation about me being happy with CAH.
I wished so.
But it is always a matter of self confidence and it says who can not they teach.
I was no different.
Started with a high note about CAH and sold it at wrong time.

Sorry to match up your expectation on my happyness

 

[cbkitsb]

Anyone understand what is going on with the share price re the merger with Lion. Price is 1.75 today after the merger was approved and was 0.16 yesterday. Can't find enough info on the company website about the merger. Looks like it is something to do with the number of shares allocated in the new (post merger) company rather than a price increase. Any ideas anyone?

 

[skyQuake]

Anyone understand what is going on with the share price re the merger with Lion. Price is 1.75 today after the merger was approved and was 0.16 yesterday. Can't find enough info on the company website about the merger. Looks like it is something to do with the number of shares allocated in the new (post merger) company rather than a price increase. Any ideas anyone?

1:11 consoldiaton pre-merger. You should notice your holdings reduced.

See the announcements from ages back.

Also shares on the nxs lol.

 

[ocelot]

Well these shares have taken a battering since the merger down from 1.75 to 1.50. WOndering if people are getting uneasy on the gold markets.

 

[rcm617]

LST shareholders got their allocations of CAH shares this week, so there will probably be a few unloading their new shares. Once these are cleared, hopefully the price should start climbing to where it should be. Good buying opportunity at the moment IMHO.

 

[dm865]

The merger was a success and they are on their way from turning explorer into producer. Their ahead of schedule and within budget to start producing gold in may. Sound management and sitting in good economica conditions. I like these guys, think they got some growth ahead.

 

[dm865]

Anyone got thoughts on these guys and their upcoming gold production? ahead of schedule at the moment

 

[ocelot]

It seems the market is agreeing with the work so far. The share price has gone up quite a lot in the last 2 weeks. If they do manage to do the pour of first gold in May I would be expecting this share price to increase quite a bit. Till then its still speculating...

 

[spotted dog]

Any general thoughts about Catalpa. I recently noticed the share increase to $1.70 while the stock was being marketed in HK. Stock has since settled back.

 

[mr. jeff]

catalpa is well protected by a hedge book for a lot of their gold at around 1550AUD/Oz but I must note that every man and his dog is flogging it at the moment, so anyone with a holding, watch out as it might overcook!

I guess they have a good history and fairly solid fundamentals, but when I hear several recommendations from brokers on one stock, some alarm bells have got to start ringing. Might be in for a very strong run though based on this buying.....

 

[mr. jeff]

update on CAH - they haven't had the best run since last post...



they have just completed a cap raising at 1.55



note justification for raising above.

Chart shows a serious retrace from around October. This may be due to their hedgebook and investors seeking to gain exposure to the charging gold price at that time and thus changing gold stocks.

One thing that is interesting is a comparison of the small local gold miners for longevity and margins; an effective graph.



Be interesting to see what happens from here. The capital raising does beg some questions.

 

[mr. jeff]

just looking at the planned works with the extra cash supports CAH's long term plan of building a mid tier operation by 2015. As this is trading around the cap raising price, it may offer a good entry point, however read into this what you will.
I don't hold and may never, but it's worth keeping an eye out.

It is worth asking - what's changed since their SP high of 2.27 ish?

I would say that most developments have been positive, they do note operating issues, since resolved, and further to this, positive drilling announcements and resource upgrades. Still have their hedge book though, which at this stage is no doubt a good thing. POG has returned to decent levels.

anyone else following CAH may help colour the picture ?

 

[Crom]

Hi Mr J,

Your observations re CAH apply equally now to many gold stocks. I hold/trade 16 gold stocks and offer this insight.

We are in a commodities bull mkt and investors have seen many many gold stocks appreciate many hundred's of percents. As such, over the past 6 months as confidence has crept in they are chasing these huge returns by focusing on the speculative plays.

Stocks like CAH with greater certainty and time lines are in my opinion, no longer sexy!

This can be seen in stocks such as ADU (30 to 90 cents and now back in low 70's even though they have achieved first gold pour). The list is long Jeff and some others are GRY, IAU, IGR and until recently ALD (great news and finally the recognition from overseas investors).

By contrast, look at a more highly spec stock such as SBL. .016 to .046 and still leaping around in huge multiples and massive volumes.

Sadly as was seen in previous booms including the tech boom, investors are chasing blue sky and I think are tragically overlooking companies such as CAH which when in full production will be a $3 plus stock. In the mean while it just trades at it's mkt cap/no of shares, with little trading spikes around exploration upside.

I jumped in heavily during the GFC and creamed stocks such as CAH, ALD, ADU, GRY, IAU etc etc and was rewarded with unbelievable returns in the many hudreds of thousands. But now, see the way ahead as being with stocks such as CAH which have retreated from their specc highs due to their greater certainties, and offer greater long term value with still very impressive returns. I see a range of brokers have 30 to 50 % plus gains on this stock.

So I agree with you. At current prices CAH and many others are now good value entry points for longer term/relaible returns.

This is of course all things being equal. Given the pathetic ALP/Greens Gov't we have with proposed carbon taxes and mineral resource/super profits taxes (revenue to drive the ALP"S lust for excessive and wasteful spending), companies like CAH could be affected.

By the way, still like some specs and highly recomend SBL!

 

[mr. jeff]

CAH looking good, continuing their successful exploration...



For a better idea of what is happening;


Note that the reef strike assumed length, don't know how they come up with the potential sizes.
Continued discovery means that they will have to head underground which will decrease margins...also I have noted in the report that their drilling program has a way to go yet so there should be news flow on this in the following months based on their gantt chart in current update. (same as above)
If you're too lazy to find it I can post just let me know...

 

[mikem]

I agree Crom. Recently got in on CAH. Hope for some good returns soon.

 

[mikem]

The merger offer has driven the SP up. Good to see.
CAH had some more good results today.
Does any one think CAH might go it alone?

 

[skc]

The merger offer has driven the SP up. Good to see.
CAH had some more good results today.
Does any one think CAH might go it alone?

They are basically saying they want to get married. And I think they will...

2 deals in 2 days for gold - may be more to come?

 

[mr. jeff]

The merger offer has driven the SP up. Good to see.
CAH had some more good results today.
Does any one think CAH might go it alone?

I think in this climate they will go ahead, it offers some fair advantages, it's quite a decent match in size, both boards are keen, only thing that could happen is a higher bid.
Pretty much a done deal really.
Probably an excellent company to hold (CAH) because there will now be a floor and further if the merger goes ahead (highly likely), it will be a mid size miner with reasonable resources. That may then, with a bit more bolting on or a fair bit more drilling success make it a target again.
The downside here is the action in POG. if this stalls, the price may drop back post transaction fairly quickly. I am not a holder and wish I was before this announcement of course so congrats to all holders.
Opinions only and I know little about the bidder.