Bulls & Bears agree - This is just a correction!!

[The Mint Man]

On Lateline business:
The bull (SHANE OLIVER, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS) and the bear (GERARD MINACK, MORGAN STANLEY) both agree that this is just a pullback.
So we should soon see the market pick up!

here is the Windows Media Video: http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200703/r129652_427292.asx
And for you mac users heres real time version: http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200703/r129652_427290.ram
Please note that these are for broad band speed.

And for those who like to read hears a link to the transcript: http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/200703/s1863778.htm you can also find links to dial up speed video/s there.

Cheers

 

[Dr Doom]

Re: Bulls & Bears agree. This is just a correction!!

Nope, secular change in sentiment - the Australian market just doesn't know it yet?

 

[money tree]

Re: Bulls & Bears agree. This is just a correction!!

well, if two anal-ysts said it, it must be true!!

dont ya know everything said on CNBC comes to pass? lol

 

[ducati916]

Re: Bulls & Bears agree. This is just a correction!!

Agreed.

If you follow US stock's and market analysis, which I do, there is a huge difference in sentiment between the US and ASX.

In the US everyone who are staying long, are hedging at least beta neutral, they are the conservatives, the more aggresive are loading up short in every rally......not that there are that many.

Today, trying to fill shorts was "market orders" on an uptick only.
Forget about getting price improvement.

Here, after what 4 days odd, people are trying to find a bottom?
Trotting out the "value" on offer?

The DJIA was down some 0.5%
This is misleading.

The S&P500 & NASDAQ were both down 1.5% odd. That is how bad it's getting. The S&P500 doesn't do 1%+ day in day out.

3.00pm is when the Mutual Funds have their redemptions, which is why between 3.15 to 3.45 you get price movement in the US, when their selling hit the tape, adios baby.............the indices crumbled.

This will get worse before it gets better.
jog on
d998

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: Bulls & Bears agree. This is just a correction!!

Duc's observations are correct.

The DJIA fell 0.53% last night, the S&P500 fell 0.97% (nearly double!). The S&P500 made a new low, the DJIA didn't.

This DJIA covers only 30 large companies on the NYSE and NASDAQ. It is not even market cap weighted, so it represents changes in share price without regard for the volumes of money involved. The S&P500 is a superior index in this regard...not withstanding the fact that it also represents 500 companies.

If the S&P500 fell double the DJIA and made a new low IMO this is a better representation of the broader US market. Could the fact that the DJIA managed to avoid making a new low suggest that money is exiting mid/small caps faster than larger cap companies? I don't know, but I'd be inclined to read it this way. Many managed funds can't be in cash beyond a regulated proportion of their capitalisation...defensive relocation into larger cap DJIA constituents might be their risk management solution.

If both the bulls and bears agree then I'm worried...

 

[money tree]

Re: Bulls & Bears agree. This is just a correction!!

its rather easy to manipulate 30 stocks so they look good. much harder to make 500 look good.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: Bulls & Bears agree. This is just a correction!!

The bear seemed to talk the better sense of the two.

 

[nizar]

Re: Bulls & Bears agree. This is just a correction!!

If the S&P500 fell double the DJIA and made a new low IMO this is a better representation of the broader US market. Could the fact that the DJIA managed to avoid making a new low suggest that money is exiting mid/small caps faster than larger cap companies? I don't know, but I'd be inclined to read it this way. Many managed funds can't be in cash beyond a regulated proportion of their capitalisation...defensive relocation into larger cap DJIA constituents might be their risk management solution.

Agree with this.
Another way to check or confirm this is to see what the Russel2000 is doing.

I know more people are selling PDN then they are the bluechips~!

 

[wayneL]

Re: Bulls & Bears agree. This is just a correction!!

I watched it. Both analysts failed to mention any of the several elephants in the room. eg Yen carry trade, Sub-prime mortgage apocalypse, etc etc etc

I reckon the bear just didn't want to be ridiculed the way the likes of Peter Schiff do on BubbleVision

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: Bulls & Bears agree. This is just a correction!!

"the bear" mentioned the Yen carry trade and made a reference the importance of economic data out of the US, which to my mind encapsulates sub-prime lending default data, among other things.

 

[greggy]

Re: Bulls & Bears agree. This is just a correction!!

On Lateline business:
The bull (SHANE OLIVER, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS) and the bear (GERARD MINACK, MORGAN STANLEY) both agree that this is just a pullback.
So we should soon see the market pick up!

here is the Windows Media Video: http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200703/r129652_427292.asx
And for you mac users heres real time version: http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200703/r129652_427290.ram
Please note that these are for broad band speed.

And for those who like to read hears a link to the transcript: http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/200703/s1863778.htm you can also find links to dial up speed video/s there.

Cheers

I'm still a Bull and believe that this is only a correction. Just a little worried when most people are saying that this is only a correction.

 

[doctorj]

Re: Bulls & Bears agree. This is just a correction!!

I'm still a Bull and believe that this is only a correction. Just a little worried when most people are saying that this is only a correction.

1987 was just a correction too...

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: Bulls & Bears agree. This is just a correction!!

What seems to be a near universal agreement that "it's just a correction" is precisely what has me worried. If everyone is already bullish then that doesn't leave much more $ to flow into the market.

 

[bean]

Re: Bulls & Bears agree. This is just a correction!!

Tonight was the D day for the Dow if it did not rally 5% fall or more was ready to happen, Futures are up (110) so possibility of 3% rally but then it needs to rally a couple of more days... the NYSE and NASDAQ were both ready to crash. Anything less than 1% rally tonight and its only a one or two day rally then its still going to correct more.

 

[tech/a]

Re: Bulls & Bears agree. This is just a correction!!

Over time sometimes longer times than others.

THIS WILL be a correction.

They all are over a long enough period.

 

[wayneL]

Re: Bulls & Bears agree. This is just a correction!!

Over time sometimes longer times than others.

THIS WILL be a correction.

They all are over a long enough period.

Great point. Even the 1929 crash was just a correction in the great grand scale of things.

So starts wave B, the correction of the correction.

 

[money tree]

Re: Bulls & Bears agree. This is just a correction!!

you can put any name on it you want, doesnt change anything.

Next time your broker calls demanding you deposit the funds he requested in yesterdays margin call, just tell him "its OK, its just a correction. Dont you know markets always go back up eventually?"
Im sure he will let you off and you can have a good chuckle about it. he he ha ha. Insert sarcasm here:

 

[MichaelD]

Re: Bulls & Bears agree. This is just a correction!!

Next time your broker calls demanding you deposit the funds he requested in yesterdays margin call...

Margin calls should be a wake-up call that you're doing something very wrong with your risk management.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: Bulls & Bears agree. This is just a correction!!

What seems to be a near universal agreement that "it's just a correction" is precisely what has me worried. If everyone is already bullish then that doesn't leave much more $ to flow into the market.

This is the exact reason that I'm concerned about this new consensus. I put a few lines about this in my blog. It seems like even the bears are growing weary from predicting the bear market that never came...and now even the bears are really just bulls in bear clothing.

 

[lesm]

Re: Bulls & Bears agree. This is just a correction!!

There appears to a consensus that this is just a correction, but it still remains to be seen by how much and for how long.

The bull is a feeling a bit tired, but he hasn't thrown in the towel yet.

A very tired bull