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- 13 February 2006
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Maybe anecdotal but i could not NOT SEE a fact on your gold miners chart:So the start of a new week:
Let's start with Mr flippe-floppe-flye, as his comments seem particularly relevant currently:
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So defensives in two time frames.
The rotation into the defensives remains (currently) the thing. We are having a bounce today in Tech. with falling rates, but, while I think we have another few days of respite from rising rates, we need to confirm that rising rates are a thing of the past. I don't think so.
We need to keep eyes on this.
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We also in the same vein have the rotation from growth to value: this looks altogether more ominous. So far, both sets are confirming one another.
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So while Bonds are off today and potentially for the next few days, it will be important to observe the relationships. If the market 'thinks' the sell-off in Bonds is simply a STD opportunity, I would not expect much of a rotation back into risker stocks. The bounce, at some point, will be sold.
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Just some info. on GDX:
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I'm liking GDX (the leveraged version) currently. Time will tell.
I don't think gold is one of these necessarily, but copper etc. probably are.
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Although, whether that continues unabated, again, time will tell. I think ultimately, if the world does transition to EV, then the metals will be in heavy demand for a very long period.
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This then is very much a watch and wait type of market. The commodity area, long dominated by POO may have an addition in the metals markets to drive commodity based pricing, which, would increase the inflationary pressures and drive the 10yr higher in yield, irrespective of POO.
We also have a massive (again) real estate boom, which is starting to make some noise in the media. Now while POO and houses are excluded from the CPI and housing doesn't make the PPI, the market will certainly watch.
This market has the 'feel' of a market testing some big macro-trends. They may or may not transition, but until they do or don't, this is likely to remain an unsettled market.
jog on
duc
A general comment for Mr Ducati:
Another proof of the chopping market: i read @ducati916 daily analysis when i wake up after looking at the US market figures and noticed recently a bit of difference in the couple of hours between the NZ post and my wake up in Oz check.
For example, today, market is down with Nasdaq at -1.9% so not insignificant.with only DJ 30 slightly green so a back to fundamentals rotation sign
we are in instable conditions indeed, and hard to see clearly.
Gold has me feeling like a flounder out of water flip flopping on a sandbank.I'll probably have a post on gold later. There is all sorts of weird and contradictory prices in the gold markets currently. I still have a major Miners trade on, so some skin-in-the-game with the gold market.
Gold has me feeling like a flounder out of water flip flopping on a sandbank.
Eagerly awaiting an update on gold.
Currently sitting on the fence after going from bear to neutral very recently, but am hesitant either way as yet.
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