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According to Andrew Robb on Lateline tonight, Treasury provides the government with a range of forecasts for their budget - each based on different assumptions (growth, dollar etc.). The government chooses which one to use. So we never really know (at least on budget night) which particular forecast Treasury regards as the most likely. According to Robb, Labor is probably working on the most optimistic forecast as it allows them to appear to be returning to surplus over time, but will simply lump the Coalition with a time bomb when reality hits fantasy.