BUDGET 2008 - predictions

[2020hindsight]

Not sure what the budget will contain.
"Horror Budget or horror interest rates" etc

For mine - I hope they don't mess around with salary sacrifice, 15% tax on super.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/09/2239634.htm?section=justin

Horror Budget or horror interest rates: analyst
Posted 26 minutes ago
A leading economic forecaster says Treasurer Wayne Swan will have to deliver a horror Budget on Tuesday - or Australians can expect horror interest rates.

"There has to be bad news. People do not understand when times are good you still need to take tough decisions," Access Economics director Chris Richardson said.

"In fact the risk is that this Budget does not take enough of the tough decisions."

Mr Richardson says spending cuts of $3 billion in the coming financial year alone will be enough to ward off a 0.25 per cent rate hike.

 

[habs]

right so cutting 3 billion dollars of services stops inflation?? it also would cut some jobs no doubt, pushing up unemployment... isnt slightly high inflation and low jobless figures better than less spending and more unemployment?

 

[agro]

i herd speculation that they are going to take the rule of

"50% discount after hold a stock for one year"

if this is the case i would be severely annoyed by the labour government

no wonder why everyone is going on the dole under them

 

[storchyman]

No more discretionary/ hybrid trusts using companies as beneficiarys?

 

[Julia]

Not sure what the budget will contain.
"Horror Budget or horror interest rates" etc

For mine - I hope they don't mess around with salary sacrifice, 15% tax on super.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/09/2239634.htm?section=justin

You didn't mention the fact that Chris Richardson was very, very critical of the forthcoming tax cuts which he reinforced will fuel inflation. He suggested it was defeating the Reserve Bank's attempts to rein in inflation, and could obviously lead to further interest rate rises.

Certainly seems pretty hypocritical to me - rant on and on as Labor, particularly Swan, is doing at present about the scourge of inflation, and then further fuel it with tax cuts!

Mr Swan talks about having to make the 'hard decisions'. The really hard but beneficial decision would be to channel the funds presently destined for tax cuts into super instead. That way the people still get the benefit but there is a minimal, if any, effect on inflation.

 

[nick2fish]

i herd speculation that they are going to take the rule of

"50% discount after hold a stock for one year"

if this is the case i would be severely annoyed by the labour government

no wonder why everyone is going on the dole under them

I agree, They don't put thier hard earned cash on the line like we do in an effort to invest to get ahead, yet they have their greedy hand out. Furthermore the money that I invest has already been taxed at a reasonable rate. Just another example of how the middle income earners carry the rest of the country and are easy game for greedy governments

 

[2020hindsight]

You didn't mention the fact that Chris Richardson was very, very critical of the forthcoming tax cuts which he reinforced will fuel inflation. He suggested it was defeating the Reserve Bank's attempts to rein in inflation, and could obviously lead to further interest rate rises.

Certainly seems pretty hypocritical to me - rant on and on as Labor, particularly Swan, is doing at present about the scourge of inflation, and then further fuel it with tax cuts!....

yeah but who you blaming...
Howard promised the cuts
Rudd matched him
Rudd is going to carry through on that electoral promise
Perhaps Howard would have reclassified this as a "non-core" promise.
But the tax cuts are gonna happen, - (and agreed) not that there probably won't be extra tightening elsewhere.

 

[numbercruncher]

Looking like Modern Day Robin Hoods ....

Lots in this Budget for working Families by the sounds of it, Probably why Labor got in and that other party got ousted ?

GENEROUS tax cuts, a $20 billion surplus and a massive reining in of public spending - Wayne Swan's first Budget looks like being the one Peter Costello always wanted to deliver.

But popular Howard government family handouts - like family tax benefit B and the baby bonus - are likely to be means-tested.

Every department except defence has been told to come up with a two per cent "efficiency dividend", which will save a total of $1.3 billion over the next four years.

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23666556-661,00.html

 

[Julia]

yeah but who you blaming...

Well, for heaven's sake, who do you think, 2020? The damn tooth fairy?
Don't tell me the good Mr Rudd doesn't have the capacity to divert the promised tax cuts into super!

Howard promised the cuts

So what? That's completely irrelevant. Labor is now the government and it doesn't matter what the Libs promised.

Rudd matched him

Which simply proves he would have done whatever it took to make sure he wasn't outbid by the Libs. No thought about the potential effect on inflation by either side.

Rudd is going to carry through on that electoral promise

Yes, 2020, we all know that. That was the point of my post. To suggest if he really had inflation worries at heart, he would not follow through with itNo hope, though that he could make such a politically unpalatable decision.

Perhaps Howard would have reclassified this as a "non-core" promise.

Quite likely. I don't care how anyone classifies it.
I am just disgusted by the hypocrisy of all the bleating about how they just have to fight inflation, yet they are going to pour more spending capacity into the economy.

 

[numbercruncher]

More good news for Average Aussies ! (maybe not so good for Health Insurers and their stockholders?)

Millions of Australians are set to benefit from a Medicare overhaul when the Rudd government hands down its first federal budget on Tuesday.

The shake-up will double the income threshold at which the Medicare levy kicks in, which is currently set at $16,740 and then phases out at $19,694, Fairfax newspapers report.

The same goes for the income threshold under which workers are required to take out private health cover or be hit with an additional Medicare surcharge.

The $50,000 income limit for singles without dependents, set 11 years ago, will rise to $100,000, News Limited reports.

The income level for couples will rise from $100,000 to $150,000, and means a total of 2.4 million taxpayers will be exempted from the surcharge under the changes.

Singles without private health insurance could be up to $1000 a year better off, while uninsured couples stand to save up to $1500.

Although uninsured young adults will gain most from the policy, it is likely to encourage under-30s to drop health insurance until age-based penalties come into effect at 31, Fairfax reports.

The changes will be outlined in federal Treasurer Wayne Swan's budget announcement on Tuesday and will take effect on July 1.

Private health funds are expected to criticise the changes, News Limited and Fairfax report.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/080509/2/16srr.html

This should have a few Interested ? Seems to be far reaching if its slashing 8b!

WAYNE Swan will use Tuesday's budget to slash $8billion in tax breaks and incentives as part of a dual strategy to help the Reserve Bank place a lid on inflation and to begin dismantling the Howard government's tax and spending machine.

The Treasurer will present the deep cuts as the most substantial reform of tax concessions in a decade and argue that the Coalition had given too much taxpayer assistance to higher-income earners who did not need it.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23673834-2702,00.html

 

[2020hindsight]

So what? That's completely irrelevant (that Howard also promised it). Labor is now the government and it doesn't matter what the Libs promised.

Julia
think of it this way then...
In their reply to the budget, how can the Libs say (incontrovertibly and unqualified) that they object to the tax cuts ?

(PS without exposing the possibility that their election promises were not genuine)

I'm under no illusion incidentally that they are (all) quite capable of giving and taking in the same document.

I'm also under no illusion that Nelson couldn't make an unqualified comment (on something substantive - without contradicting himself etc) if his life depended on it. - leastways I've yet to see it.

PS Who gives the reply to the budget speech anyway? I'm assuming Nelson.

 

[2020hindsight]

Rudd's Reply to Budget speech from 2007 :-
http://australianpolitics.com/2007/05/10/2007-budget-reply-speech-kevin-rudd.shtml

2007 Budget Reply Speech: Kevin Rudd

Mr Speaker, I am an optimist when it comes to our country’s future. Tonight I want to outline our plan for our country’s future.

I believe budgets should not be about the next election. They should be about the next decade. They should reflect the ambition we have for our nation’s long-term future.

Mr Speaker, we are truly blessed to be Australians. We live in a stable democracy, when many in the world do not. We have enjoyed great prosperity – and have benefited from a time of unparalleled world economic growth.

And to cap this off, we have prospered from the rise of China, the rise of India and the global resources boom.

The benefits of this are washing through the economy, creating jobs, generating new businesses and boosting government revenues to an all time high.

Mr Speaker, there is nothing to hold us back as a nation and as a people – except a lack of long-term vision. We are part of a world that is changing faster than ever before.

In 2004 the world pumped out a staggering 26.6 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions into our atmosphere just from fuel combustion alone. China graduated half a million scientists and engineers. India graduated more PhDs than we can imagine. Italy will soon be laying out a broadband network for two-thirds of its population of up to 100 megabits per second.

Big changes are coming. Big challenges are waiting around the corner. They will dramatically influence almost every aspect of our lives – some for the better, others for the worse. And some will be upon us in the blink of an eye.

Mr Speaker, how we respond to these future challenges will define the security and prosperity of our nation for generations to come. The same for our communities. The same for our families.

We can either wait for these challenges to swamp us and be left behind. Or we can anticipate them and act now while there is still time. We can either seize the great opportunities that have been presented to us. Or we can squander them.

Or as a great American President once said “the time to fix the roof is when the sun is shining”. The truth is the sun is shining right now on Australia. We must seize the day and get our house in order. I believe Australia faces three core challenges to secure its future:

• First, to build long-term economic prosperity, beyond the mining boom, by rebuilding productivity growth.

• Second, to deal with, rather than avoid, the great challenge of climate change and water before the cost of inaction becomes far too great.

• Third, to make sure the fair go in Australia has a future, not just a past – both within the workplace and outside the workplace as well.

And beyond these three great challenges is the underlying challenge of remaining vigilant on our national security in an increasingly uncertain and threatening world.

Which is why Budgets need to be about the next decade, not simply the next election....... etc

 

[numbercruncher]

Or as a great American President once said “the time to fix the roof is when the sun is shining”. The truth is the sun is shining right now on Australia. We must seize the day and get our house in order

Excellent piece of advice.

Being proactive rather than reactive should be the policy of every Government.

 

[2020hindsight]

“the time to fix the roof is when the sun is shining”. Excellent piece of advice.

:topic nc, then again, I'm reminded of a relative who bought a property in the bush - took three years before they had some rain , and realised they had holes in the roof

Guess the trick is to have the management skills to find the holes in the roof before they find you

the time to fix the roof is not amidst the pouring rain
the time to fix the roof is when it’s sunny – then again
unless you man a roof patrol - both underneath and top
you can bet if you miss one single hole, that that’s where the rain will drop.

 

[Julia]

Julia
think of it this way then...
In their reply to the budget, how can the Libs say (incontrovertibly and unqualified) that they object to the tax cuts ?

Quite right. They can't. But then again, if it's Dr Nelson doing the replying anything is possible. He can say two different things in the same breath.

I'm under no illusion incidentally that they are (all) quite capable of giving and taking in the same document.

Agreed again.

I'm also under no illusion that Nelson couldn't make an unqualified comment (on something substantive - without contradicting himself etc) if his life depended on it. - leastways I've yet to see it.

Agreed also. And no doubt he will manage to squeeze in some stuff about loving babies amongst it somewhere.

PS Who gives the reply to the budget speech anyway? I'm assuming Nelson.

I think so. Malcolm Turnbull might do a better job, but even he has been making some pretty silly comments recently about inflation not being much of a problem.

 

[Julia]

The increase in threshold for the Medicare levy will almost certainly increase private health premiums as people drop out, and will put more pressure on public hospitals which is the last thing they need.

Might this test the 'fantastic co-operation' between Federal and State governments as the States take the flak from patients being further disadvantaged with State funded hospitals?

 

[numbercruncher]

Yes will certainly increase pressure on the Public system, I think perhaps they have jumped ahead a little by instantly doubling the threshold, perhaps they should of started with a 50pc jump then reassessed ?

 

[numbercruncher]

Luxury cars in the fireing line to ...

UPMARKET cars will attract higher taxes in Tuesday night's Federal Budget, as the Government embarks on a strategy to hit the rich.

The first Budget tax increase in more than a decade will affect all cars with a price tag of $57,000 and above - about 105,000 sales a year.

The tax, up from 25 per cent to 33 per cent, is aimed at prestige imported cars.

But the rise will affect locally produced vehicles such as the Ford Territory Ghia and the Toyota Tarago Ultima.

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23677665-661,00.html

 

[marklar]

Not sure what the budget will contain.

Lots and lots of the phrase "working families" just like Swan's interview this morning and the whole friggin' election campaign. It's just a new term for "Howards' battlers" designed to evoke some feeling of compassion and/or empathy.

Personally I'd like to see better investment in education (knowledge nation mk. 2) and less middle class welfare. Swan's "we're going to overhaul the tax system, but we're not going to increase the GST base or rate" doesn't fill me with confidence.

In short, I have no predictions but I think it will be more small 'l' liberal than what we would have had from the large 'L' Liberal party.

m.

 

[The Mint Man]

Re: BUDGET 2008

Well it's getting close so thought I would bump this one up as I almost started a new thread thinking that there was no 'budget 08' thread yet.

Cheers