BTA - Biota Holdings

tarnor · 3 November 2005

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

Sold my spp on open today, got freaked by the preopen shuffling.. this will bounce back hard once everyone thinks the placement holders have been flushed out.. trying to pick the rentry..
I think thier will be many buyer who have held off for this time to buy..

canny · 3 November 2005

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

Tarnor, I think most SPP holders would have done the same today - it was panic selling almost - and yes, I'm convinced the buy back will happen.
Looked like it hit its low at 1.65 - I bought back at 1.68.
See how it pans out - but I can't see much downside from here.
Hope I'm right!

tarnor · 4 November 2005

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

wow didn't see that one coming! seems oversold now with everythings thats been goin on..was hoping for a renetry in the low 1.50s got back in on the bell at 1.40 but will be a little nervouse over the weekend for sure

canny · 5 November 2005

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

tarnor said:
wow didn't see that one coming! seems oversold now with everythings thats been goin on..was hoping for a renetry in the low 1.50s got back in on the bell at 1.40 but will be a little nervouse over the weekend for sure

Me too tarnor - I kept the 1.68's and bought more at 1.40
Even if it takes more than a few days, I'm certain we'll see another ballistic run up some time before too long.
Trying to accumulate as funds are freed, as it's one where you can make a substantial profit if you have the time to wait for it.
The orders going in world wide are amazing - and it's only just scraping the surface at the moment.
Looking forward to a LANI partner and some more numbers coming through.
Not expecting too much to come out of the mediation talks initially - but who knows!
Happy trading.

chansw · 5 November 2005

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

tarnor said:
wow didn't see that one coming! seems oversold now with everythings thats been goin on..was hoping for a renetry in the low 1.50s got back in on the bell at 1.40 but will be a little nervouse over the weekend for sure

tanor, I got back in at 1.50 yesterday as well and might buy more on Monday. Biota made an announcement on 16 Sept 2005 on "Reported stockpiling orders". It mentioned "Holland - Order received, but disclosure not allowed at this stage". So far, I have not seen anything about this order yet.

Also, I read a newspaper article in a Hong Kong newspaper before that some medical Professors urged the HK Govt to stockpile more Relenza.

Two more outbreaks in China and Vietnam reported. New Bird Flu In China, Vietnam

Doctor Funko · 6 November 2005

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/19102005/325/glaxo-shares-rally-bird-flu-drug-hopes.html
talks about 800 million pounds in Relenza revenue annually! Thats almost 2 billion Aus dollars and 6% royalties to Biota = $120 million
I think this is even before the outsourcing of relenza production that's been talked about. Yes, its a bio, so people are afraid and selling off their SPP's for Xmas etc but just wait for the fundamentals to kick in. I bought some more at 1.54. Their may be more selling before it bounces but when all the revenue pours in it cannot but bounce hard. We are lucky to get in at these prices i think.

chansw · 6 November 2005

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

Indonesia finds two new human bird flu cases

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/06Nov2005_news16.php

Kauri · 6 November 2005

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

I haven't looked into the bio's much and therefore my knowledge is limited to what has been in the press, mainly it seems about the unavailability of anti-virals.
With the reported massive shortfall of supply againt demand for relenza it would seem that BTA needs more production facilities and/or the ability to ramp up existing facilities in the immediate future to meet these large orders. Does anyone know if they have plans to increase production, and more importantly if so, how long before they start producing? Thanks.

chansw · 6 November 2005

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

Kauri said:
I haven't looked into the bio's much and therefore my knowledge is limited to what has been in the press, mainly it seems about the unavailability of anti-virals.
With the reported massive shortfall of supply againt demand for relenza it would seem that BTA needs more production facilities and/or the ability to ramp up existing facilities in the immediate future to meet these large orders. Does anyone know if they have plans to increase production, and more importantly if so, how long before they start producing? Thanks.

"Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- GlaxoSmithKline Plc, Europe's largest drugmaker, will start producing the antiviral medicine Relenza in Australia as concerns rise about the potential of a lethal bird- flu outbreak.

Glaxo will start making the drug, which research has shown to be useful in treating bird flu, at its Melbourne plant by mid 2006, spokesman Alex Gosman said in a statement. Relenza is currently made only in France"

You can read the whole story here

pete152 · 7 November 2005

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

The Company just put out the top 20 list,again.
Cheers,
Peter

tarnor · 7 November 2005

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

3 u buyers and a u seller chomped today massive turnover and not much movement.. I was gunna bail if it broke thru 1.37 which it did.. but have stayed in.. still expect it to go back up i think....

keepitreal · 7 November 2005

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

This could be the turning point.. i think the bulls are starting to level it.
the day started off with optimism and ended with very low volume.. i think people were sitting on the sidelines not sure which way it was going in the end..
tomorrow should be interesting and will most probably confirm its future direction.

chansw · 11 November 2005

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

A new announcement "French Government Confirms Relenza Stockpile of 9 million units" on ASX Web site. Share price up more than 23%

Aussiejeff · 14 November 2005

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

chansw said:
A new announcement "French Government Confirms Relenza Stockpile of 9 million units" on ASX Web site. Share price up more than 23%

Going by this mornings pre-orders frenzy, this could be another interesting day for BTA.

I'm gonna try to join the ruck at anything <$2.10.....

Of course BTA's earnings off the back of the French announcement is dependent on the price per unit sold by GSK, but even if the units sold at a big discount of say $20 per unit, 7% royalty on those sales would still be "big moolah" for BTA. And that's even disregarding Germanys sales...

As with any health stock, a bit of a gamble in such volatile times, but I'm prepared to give it a shot again after my last "lucky dip" in and out..

Good luck,

AJ

Aussiejeff · 15 November 2005

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

Well, that was a quick ride. Bought in at $2.04 and sold at near yesterdays top at $2.12 withing 1 hour of buying. Talk about volatile!

Not surprising really as it appears BTA is driven largely by almost daily bird flu news articles and occasional company announcements ATM. Basically, I monitor the depth in trades starting about 15 mins before open, and if the pattern looks VERY firmly "up" I might climb on board again... we'll see.

Happy trading,

AJ

tarnor · 15 November 2005

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

Another meeting between gsk and biota this friday expecting a build up to this.. later in the week...

yesterday was a bit dissapointing i didn't trade it so well, only improved my position by a cent ..

Dr Hamied, however, illustrates his point with the two drugs seen to be effective in treating the symptoms of bird-flu ”” Oseltamivir (marketed by Roche as Tamiflu) and Zanamivir (marketed by GlaxoSmithKline as Relenza).

"They are not sold by their originators. They are in-licensed products," he points out. Roche is paying Gilead a 10 per cent royalty on Tamiflu sales, while GSK pays Biota a seven per cent royalty on Relenza.

"Because we are third world, our prices are low. But I am willing to pay up to four per cent on my net sales to the originator," he argues.

powwww · 15 November 2005

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

Just joined this forum as I have been in two minds about investing in this company...

From my research if Biota wins the court case the shares will go up substantially...

If GSK sign this deal with Nicholas Piramal India (NPIL),http://www.business-standard.com/co...leftindx=1&lselect=1&chklogin=N&autono=205588 the stock will go up even if the royalty rate is much lower.

From reading routers I think there will be some +ve movement very soon as in international press there has been much talk about the virus mutating to be potentially spread amongst humans.

On the -ve side it is a very volatile stock as seen over these last few days.

Any opinions on the above would be appreciated as I am very new to this whole game.

Regards

tarnor · 15 November 2005

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

Yoinked from another board i'm sure they won't mind...

"Mark von Itztein (a co-inventor of zanamivir) says they can cut production time to a few weeks. Most of the current 9 month production time is mucking about with packing and delivery. It is much easier to make than Tamiflu. It is also a much better fit in the virus binding site so you need a tenth as much to be effective and because it fits as designed rather than being forced as Tamiflu is, it does not induce mutational spread. Tamiflu induces resistance because it is a dodgy fit that overlaps a region of the viral protein that is variable while Relenza sits in an invariant region."

powwww · 17 November 2005

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

Whats everyone doing with this. I bought this stock ages back at $0.60 odd cents then the spp. Haven't been trading it - unfortunately (just holding).

Been some good publicity on tv tonight - plenty of international press too..

court resumes tomorrow - any thoughts on how long this will go on for?

should spike soon...

powwww · 18 November 2005

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

Interesting article in the financial times, amongst other places, last night!

Tamiflu is being investigated for causing deaths and pschiatric problems amongst teenagers - a win for relenza...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Roche hit as FDA examines Tamiflu deaths
By Andrew Jack in London and Christopher Bowe in New York
Published: November 17 2005 20:17 | Last updated: November 17 2005 20:17

Roche, the Swiss pharmaceutical group, moved to shore up a 3 per cent drop in its share price on Thursday after the US Food and Drug Administration said it would Friday examine reports of up to 12 deaths and 75 other cases of children who suffered side effects after using Tamiflu, its anti-flu drug.

As part of a scheduled review of eight paediatric medicines, the FDA said it was in “active communication with . . . regulators” concerning the drug's use in Japan, the country with the widest use of Tamiflu for regular seasonal flu treatment, and where all the deaths and most of the other incidents of side-effects occurred.

The news presents a dilemma for governments drawing up contingency plans to prepare for a potentially lethal bird flu-derived pandemic, for which Tamiflu is widely viewed as the most practicable short-term drug for treatment and prophylactic use.

It presents a fresh challenge to Roche, which has seen demand for Tamiflu rise sharply in recent months towards projected sales of $1bn this year. George W Bush, US president, recently earmarked $1bn for purchases for pandemic stockpiles, and about 50 governments have placed similar orders.

David Reddy, pandemic task force leader at Roche, said of the safety reports: “This has been blown up out of all proportions. We don't see any increased risk, and even [see] a decreased risk of death in infant mortality for those taking Tamiflu.”

He said there was no clear causal link between the deaths and Tamiflu, which had been used by 24.5m patients in Japan, including 11.6m children.

Morgan Stanley, the investment bank, dismissed the safety reports as “not of concern” and said the FDA was unlikely to change its safety labeling for the drug.

The fresh concerns may help boost interest in GlaxoSmithKline's Relenza, the only rival anti-viral drug on the market that may prove effective against pandemic flu. "

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/0b4928ea-57a6-11da-8866-00000e25118c.html

BTA - Biota Holdings

tarnor

canny

tarnor

canny

chansw

Doctor Funko

chansw

Kauri

E/W Learner

chansw

pete152

tarnor

keepitreal

chansw

Aussiejeff

Aussiejeff

tarnor

powwww

tarnor

powwww

powwww

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