BTA - Biota Holdings

[tarnor]

Couldn't see any posts on this so here goes

AFAIK
briefly: BTA get a royalty of a drug manufactured by GSK called relenza, which is one of 2 drugs which is effective in treating bird flu and suitable for stock piling .

BTA is currently sueing GSK for not adequately
promoting relenza for the amount of 308m - 400m | next step is mediation phase that occurs 25 november, I'm guessing this is where you migth settle out of court? BTA has a market cap of roughly 120m

BTA case must be looking alot more solid now since everyone is desperate to stockpile in case of a bird flu outbreak..

not to long ago BTA were trading at 50c first they announced reports of germany stockpiling relenza then a few days later confirmed it.

over the weekend thier was press about holland also stockpiling relenza, bta announced this to the market monday where yet to have a confirmation.

i was going to sell my holding today if it weakened around 95 and didnt look like it would hold but buyers kept coming in. I'm presuming traders have the same reluctance to sell that i do knowing thiers a confirmation with order quantities to come. Also new orders could come in at any time. Everyone is paniced about bird flu - its such hypy goodness. Even thought this is a bio in a neglected sector BTA keeps chomping on

It seems that USA is also possibly stockpiling relenza, bta heven't mentioned this yet so its only speculation.

I'm trying to pick an exit but i'd guess the TA is looking good for another run north tommorow

the fact that all these potential orders are looming and the massive amounts of bird flu in the press is enough to keep people from taking profits, loks like agood combination of TA FA and the best of all hype!

the major problem is the demand for stock piling is so great that production needs to be increased greatly...

I've been camping this for the retrace but it hasn't come yet.. anyone else following

 

[canny]

Re: BTA biota - is this a bio?? :/

Main thing I see as not correct there is that Relenza doesn't treat bird flu as such. It's an anti viral to help prevent human flu - which is a mutation of the avian flu virus. That is far more significant, as the World Health Organisation are urging all Governments to stock pile the anti viral flu drugs.
Not only that, but Biota are continuing in research and development of improved anti flu drugs - and will be expecting around $400m from Glaxo in the court case, which has been bolstered by the current scare of pandemic flu.
All in all - should hope to see it trading well over $1 over the next few weeks.

 

[tarnor]

Re: BTA biota - is this a bio?? :/

cheers thanks for the correction.

I bailed on the news today, expecting the sell off, i was hoping the news wouldn't come looked like it would have kept going..

tried to reenter after the selling and had a buy order just above the u buyer, then it got pulled so i also pulled my bid. It held pretty well though. I'm going to see what it does monday hopefully it goes back to the 80's briefly but if it goes north i'm back on.

can't see this staying under a 1$ for much longer, exciting times ahead, thier complaint against gsk must be substanially stronger now..

 

[krisbarry]

Re: BTA biota - is this a bio?? :/

Now this stock has been flying of late. very impressive volume!

 

[canny]

Re: BTA -surviving pandemic flu financially

A relevant post 'taken' from another forum -
how to survive a pandemic flu financially:
This is from a CSL thread - but is also relevant to BTA - being in the game of fighting off the threat.

Subject re: breaking out

I have put CSL warrants on watch and when the first announcement that the avian flu has gone to human to human I will hold only three things - NCM [gold], CSL [vaccine], and cash to capitalise on a market collapse.

The share buy back is helping but the avain flu will make CSL , not only will blood products be in demand but their vaccines especially. I suspect some punters are already positioning as a natural hedge.

Will avain flu pandemic happen ? The answer is 10% chance in next 18 mnths, and almost absolute certainty in next 15 yrs. Will it cause an absolute sh*t storm? - you bet if it happens in next 12mnths. Im pretty close to this one and it will not be pretty. The gnomes in Switzerland say if it happens soon it has a very good chance of causing financial market collapse as trade & business flows sieze up causing hedge funds flight to safety. The USD will not be considered safety, leaving gold. Financial institutions typically considered a reasonable safe harbour will be shunned.

 

[tarnor]

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

biota really moving today could see a close over 1.30..

nothing like doom and gloom, a bit of hype goes a long way..

i held this for a couple of days before they announced thier spp, at .76.. pretty much an offer to good to refuse.. hoping I qualified... shall see

 

[farmboy]

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

I'm loving this having bought in on Sept 20 just to qualify for the 76 cent offer.

Certainly did not expect this but even if todays burst turns out to be a dud I still think it is a good stock to hold.

Has gone so far to $1.40 - Snoopy dance!!

 

[tarnor]

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

I'm loving this having bought in on Sept 20 just to qualify for the 76 cent offer.

This was my confusion i had sold out before the sep 20 offer announcement and didn't reenter on that day because it takes 3 days to settle????. so you had to of bought earlier on the 16th and buying on the 20th would not make you eligible for spp??? not sure...

i brought on the 13th sold on the 16th, so its up in the air for me.... but i think you had to of held at close of 16th...

oh well will soon find out

 

[farmboy]

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

Just checked with the registry and you are quite right tarnor - I am down as becoming the owner on the 23rd. Still very pleased having got them at 96 cents and was counting on having to pay more as I had intended to buy anyway.

 

[tarnor]

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

Yoinked this from ss courtesy trader10..

Call to stockpile rival flu drug

Richard Gluyas
September 28, 2005
A CSIRO scientist has urged the federal Government to stockpile the home-grown anti-flu drug Relenza after a documented case of resistance to rival Tamiflu.

Canberra-based Jenny McKimm-Breschkin, who helped develop Relenza, said yesterday both drugs were effective in treating influenza, including bird flu. "But it's generally known that there's a low level of resistance to Relenza," she told The Australian.


FLU FIGHTERS
TAMIFLU
Created by Gilead Sciences in the US. Rights now held by Roche Laboratories, of Switzerland.
For the treatment of "uncomplicated influenza in patients one year and older whose flu symptoms have not lasted more than two days".
Comes in capsule form.
Dominates the flu drug market. The US has stockpiles, as does Australia, which donates doses to Indonesia.
Resistance levels of up to 18 per cent.
Can cause nausea and vomiting.

RELENZA
Created by the CSIRO. Rights now held by Biota, of Australia, and GlaxoSmithKline, of Britain.
For the treatment of "uncomplicated illness due to the influenza virus in people seven years and older whose flu symptoms have lasted no more than two days".
Administered through an inhaler.
Has been stockpiled by Germany, with smaller orders from the US, France, Hong Kong and The Netherlands
Evidence of resistance yet to emerge.
Can cause serious breathing problems.
Dr McKimm-Breschkin said Relenza's chemical make-up meant that it had a better resistance profile than Tamiflu. She cited a case of bird flu in Asia documented by the World Health Organisation, where a resistant virus was isolated in a patient treated with Tamiflu.
Canberra this week donated 40,000 courses of Tamiflu to Indonesia. Indonesia is on heightened alert, with more than 30 people in hospital with bird flu symptoms and a death toll that has risen to six.

Although there was a probable case in Thailand last year, Dr McKimm-Breschkin said there was still no confirmed case anywhere of human-to-human transmission.

The Government controversially chose Tamiflu ahead of Relenza, without a tender process, when it allocated $124million to build a stockpile of anti-flu drugs in last year's budget.

A Senate committee was told in June last year that details of the order were protected on national security grounds. Health Department deputy secretary Mary Murnane said "people who do not wish us well" could use the information to "identify where they might act".

Relenza was conceived by the CSIRO in conjunction with the Melbourne biotechnology firm Biota Holdings.

Biota shares with CSIRO a 7per cent royalty from sales of Relenza, but the company is embroiled in a Victorian Supreme Court battle with the drug's licensee, British pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline.

It has accused GSK of abandoning Relenza "at birth" and allowing the Roche-marketed Tamiflu to corner the prescription and stockpiling market.

GSK is defending the case, in which Biota is claiming damages in a range of $308-430 million. Since Biota launched its claim in May last year, it has announced several stockpiling deals by GSK with national governments.

This was posted in the australian today and would likely be why it has run so hard..

Lots more $$$'s for biota if relenza becomes more desirable..

 

[tarnor]

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

got the spp today even though i had sold on th 16th

looks like i still qualify for the full 5000$ of shares even though i was trading a tiny parcel half that.

"directors reserve the right to close the offer early"

Have not had much experience with spp, does this mean that its first come first serve..? ie you send of your cheque only to be told the offer has closed..

 

[Kauri]

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

In my experience if a SPP is oversubscribed then applications are scaled back.. i.e if you apply for the full$5000 worth you may only get $3000 worth of shares and a cheque for the balance not allocated.

The statement... "directors reserve the right to close the offer early" is in all SPP offers ...I see it as more of a sales type pitch and don't let it influence my decision to participate or not. Having said that ALN just closed their SPP in their spin off 3 days early.

 

[farmboy]

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

When I thought I would be eligible for the 76 cent deal I worked out that if each shareholder took up the offer (and you would have to be barking mad not to) he/she would get a maximum of about 2800 shares.

Pushing $2 a few minutes ago.

 

[krisbarry]

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

Very Impressive run on this one, so much media hype over the weekend gives this one a free ride.

Well done to all that hold.

 

[tarnor]

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

big pull back today, lots of profits being taken with alot of panic, i'm looking to jump in on close. love the volatility

with the mediation phase for the proceedings against gsk in upcoming weeks thier should still be a lot of interest..

 

[canny]

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

I think we can feel pretty confident that some panic should have disappeared after todays frenzy. That was horrible. A steady rise would have been far more sustainable - and now we are on too many radars for the moment.
I did all right in the deal - sold out at 1.76 and have bought back at 1.65.
Will hold them now - and wait for the build up to happen again - which it will - just not sure of time frame.
A lot will depend on whether the co can confirm any of the new orders.
Their confirmation from Glaxo is very slow, which is why the media usually hears of a stockpile order before Biota does. Good news for us as traders - opportunity to buy a few extras to trade the news, while keeping a core holding.
The story hasn't changed - only the stupidity of a freak market setting unrealistic speed of rise. Hopefully it'll be 'steady as she goes' from now, with gentle rises! Here's hoping!

 

[beagle666]

biota... how far can it go?

Hi all...

I am big on biota at the moment and am wondering if anyone has opinions they wanna share on this stock. How far can it go? should i get out now?
Cheers.

Another interesting stock isAgenix... anyone interested in that?

 

[beagle666]

BTA - Biota

Recently recieved a spp offer for biota @76 cents. looks like a great offer given recent price movements of that stock.

My question is can we assume that the price of biota will fall directly after the spp purchases due to profit taking. Should I be looking to offload immediately?

Any other opinions on the spp biota is offering?

Cheers

 

[pete152]

Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/

Mate I do not know how far ir will go, which is why I just buy when it starts its run then sell when I have make enough for the day.

It could go far as there is a lot of panic about bird flu at the moment.

But i shall just do my buy then sell as soon as possible, works for me!!
Cheers
Peter

 

[Knobby22]

Re: Share purchase plans

To me Biota is highly speculative.

Problems I can see-
CSL will have its bird vaccine available in a years time.
There is a competitor doing better than Relenza in the market.

Therefore the price could easily fall, I would at least sell half of the spp reasonably soon.