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BRK - Brookside Energy

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Re: RFE - Red Fork Energy



Well the battle is over, he got his hands on that Hartleys report and posted it on his blog.

This RFE baby has LOADS of SHALE GAS yet to be tapped which gives a future upside of greater than 500 cents -- that's JUST the Shale Gas!! Would have to hold RFE for a few years to see that I would expect .. anyway more details on the Hartleys report ...
 
Re: RFE - Red Fork Energy



HI folks,

RFE ... may be a leaky bucket, with the price now off its lows and increased
overall volume, over the past week ... that, comes ahead of some news
expected out of the Red Fork camp, hopefully later this coming week .....

have a great weekend

paul



=====
 
RFE - Acerage expansion sparking price rise

I have been following RFE (Red Fork Energy) for quite some time. After their acquisition announcement the price started on a steady rise from a 0.41 previous close, then announcement, then a 0.43 open post announcement and sits at 0.49 as of today’s close.

I follow the stock as best I can or rather as best a layman can but I am interested to hear any other opinions that you all may have, and some answers as to why RFE stock has attracted some prominent businessmen and elite companies such as the Macquarie group and Billionare Mr. Soros...
 
Re: RFE - Red Fork Energy

I purchased this stock for the reason of getting involved with the Mississippi play without resorting to the wig-wigs of the industry.

So far todays trading was good. The Stochasitcs indicate over-selling, the volume is up, MACD is bullish and a slight, ever so slight price increase. Market sensative information is fresh as Tahara will be spudded this week. I just do not see how this is a bad buy right now.

If anyone wants to chime in then please do so.
 
Re: RFE - Red Fork Energy

Euroz is promoting RFE heavily and they have been moving steadily to new highs recently.
 
Re: RFE - Red Fork Energy

Reaching new 12 month highs today on reasonable volume, has been trending up very solidly for the past couple of months
 
Re: RFE - Red Fork Energy

Been running some numbers on RFE and current play assumtions look very conservative compared to OIP figures stated by schluberger on wireline log data.

RFE's current recovery factors on OIP are currently running at %1, this is very low. AUT are currently running at an average field recovery factor of %8 and through well down spacing see the recovery factor jump to 16%.

On current metrics i have calculated RFE's 2c resource to be - 84,300,000 MMBOE

EUR - 300,000 boe
3 wells per 640 acre section
84,300,000 MMBOE equates to 1% recovery of OIP

I would expect this figure to move to the 3P category very soon. Possibly after the first 5 wells are drilled and a maiden reserves report is commisioned. In future i can see this figure being base line 1p PUD reserves.

Now moving to 80 acre spaccings (or 8 wells per 640 acre section) on the same metrics, total recovery of OIP would be 2.4% or 225,300,000 MMBOE

The upside potential on offer here is really staggering, the downside risk is also relativly low with RFE currently only trading at land value. IMO big gains could be realised over the next 1-5 years through reserves and production growth, also as risk subsides with more production data.
 
Re: RFE - Red Fork Energy



Looks like this has just had a cleanout on Friday. If it can scott through 90 cents now this week, it will be away again. McMurty news due this week so I suspect they released tahara first and then whammo, give the sellers an uppercut with good news.

Let's see how it turns out, but the strong recovery from 80 cents means buyers know that there is more news soon.

Anyone else have any thoughts here. Hartleys have a target of 4.30 on this not that means anything these days.
 
Re: RFE - Red Fork Energy

Some broker reports give valuations on the stock between $4 and $8. The $8 one comes from Novus Capital.
Personally I am happy with the upside reward vrs the downside risk with this one.
While I am not putting the house on it - a decent speckie punt could be a nice little earner.
 
Re: RFE - Red Fork Energy


Might i ask, what do you think is so speculative about the mississippi lime??
 
Re: RFE - Red Fork Energy

Might i ask, what do you think is so speculative about the mississippi lime??
Click to expand...

Financials Red Fork Energy LTD
FYE June 6/2008 6/2009 6/2010 6/2011
Revenue $m 1 1 3 3
NPAT $m -3.7 -3.0 -2.9 -3.8
EPS cents -4.6 -3.1 -2.2 -2.3
EPS Growth % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
DPS cents 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Franking % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Div yield% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
PER X 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ROE X -21.3 -11.4 -6.3 -5.2

Source: Aspect Huntley

Sorry the table formatting keeps getting stuffed up.

To me when a company cannot show a history of making money it is a speckie.
 
Re: RFE - Red Fork Energy



Fair enough thats your style, but there is nothing speculative about the mississippi lime, and RFE have a massive 73,000 net acres in key counties. Big money is made when buying before the obvious becomes general public knowledge.

Look at it like this -

NPV(10) -

282 drilling locations x 300,000 EUR = 84,600,000 mmboe

NPV (10) 3P reserves = $1,142,100,000 or 3.60 per share.

NPV worked out on only $15 a bbl, so drilling costs, transportation costs, well maintenance costs are more than compensated for.

Hence, Net present value (NPV) at a %10 discount of = $1,142,100,000 or 3.60 per share.

Once RFE start drilling and converting 3P to 1P the market will start assigning a higher premium.

Note : 84,600,000 mmboe equates to only a %1 oil in place (OIP) recovery factor, which is very low.
 
Re: RFE - Red Fork Energy

Lol - we might disagree on the use of some words, but we both agree on the upside
potential on this stock.

Your calculations look pretty good and I would go along with your conclusions.

I agree with you about timing for getting into a mining stock - the besy time IMO is in the transition from being a developer to a producer. That time for Red Fork is about now.

I am happy to put my money into this one right now.

DYOR: Where there is drilling there is always risk.
 
Re: RFE - Red Fork Energy


What's with the extreme buying that has been happening here. I have gone all in here on the break of 90 cents as that was major resistance which is now major support. Looks to me some major news is coming. Guessing a takeover or major JV with big player. Cannot be just production news as buying is too desperate. they hoover anything up that is major volume. Thoughts anyone. This has 2.50 plus all over it and reminds me of AUT.
 
Re: RFE - Red Fork Energy

Hi
I think what caused the sudden rush is the outstanding log results from the McMurtry #1-21H well. It really could not have been much better

This stock has been talked about on a few forums, so I think this announcement was the buy signal for a lot of people.

There is so much that can go wrong in drilling an oil / gas well. The results de – risk the investment enough so a lot more people are willing to take a shot at this one.

I could be wrong about this, but either way I am happy the share price is heading North.
 
Re: RFE - Red Fork Energy

These guys keep making good announcements

They have just leased a “Top Drive” rig from Oklahoma company Jerry Scott Drilling for the next 12 months.

Top Drive rigs drill faster (around 17-20%), safer and better than the traditional kelly and rotary table.

Disclosure: More stock held than when I last posted
 
Re: RFE - Red Fork Energy

hi reeftip

you mentioned the recent increase in volume, the word is RFE is a possibility of being upgraded to the ASX300 in the near future, rebalancing occurs in early March.

quite possible that some funds are getting in early and that some are taking overweight positions.

have held and grown my position for well over 2 years now and have never felt more confident.

trader8888, love your posts mate, keep it up.
 
Re: RFE - Red Fork Energy


Yes I think you are right. I noticed some buying yesterday that had 'Insto' written all over it.

An upgrade to the ASX 300 would explain a lot of the activity.
 
Re: RFE - Red Fork Energy

reeftip said:
Yes I think you are right. I noticed some buying yesterday that had 'Insto' written all over it.

An upgrade to the ASX 300 would explain a lot of the activity.
Click to expand...


Can anyone tell me whether it was upgraded to the ASX300? I realised that it was subject to approval which was to be confirmed on the 16th, however I haven't seen any company announcements and having trouble accessing the information on the SandP website.....
 
Re: RFE - Red Fork Energy


harvestar, unfortunately RFE not upgraded to ASX300 YET.

waiting for CQO takeover to be finalised. they are currently in the ASX100 and have a few loose ends to tidy up before they are removed from the index. probably looking at around the middle of April before we can hope to be upgraded.

probably a very good reason for the complete drop off in volume.
 
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