Magic, spot on. My eldest son who wanted out of schhol at 16 got into a TAFE course that had 9 trads in it. He got his chance with the local Shire as a Heavy Diesel Fitter. From there had various jobs with the big companies and has now been in Tom Price for 20 years. A variety of positins which has given him many arrows for the quiver. Highly skilled.Thing is, unskilled people can be trained.
Someone who's trying to make ends meet in whatever low end service industry job could indeed be trained to become an operator, tradie or even a white collar professional if given sufficient opportunity both for the training and ongoing employment thereafter.
If we look at how we used to train tradies (always known as tradesmen back then but that term's deemed sexist today) then there were basically 4 groups. From largest to smallest:
1. Big companies that manufactured, refined or processed something.
2. Utilities especially the state owned electricity authorities.
3. Various other things run by government - the Transport Department, the Housing Commission, public transport fleets, etc.
4. A relatively smaller number trained by private contractors, builders, self-employed tradies with an apprentice, etc.
I'm less familiar with the companies in other states but if you find any group of older tradies in Tasmania and ask them where they did their apprenticeship then the answers will mostly be a list of big business acronyms and things run by government. APPM, Tioxide, ANM, EZ, TEMCO, Comalco, Sheridan, ACI, Incat, Cadbury and so on for the big companies, the Hydro in the next category as an entity unto itself albeit ultimately government owned, and in third category the various state government departments. The remaining 20% would be from the assorted builders, contractors, self-employed tradies and so on.
A key point being they all saw training as something that they needed to be doing and trained far more people than they needed to retain. That's what kept society supplied with tradies who then went to work for themselves or small business.
Part of that was multiple parties working cooperatively to make it work. Apprentices with anything run by government were commonly placed with privately run businesses, typically construction related, for a period to broaden their experience both at their trade and with how private business goes about things. Apprentices from the private sector were likewise commonly sent off to a big workshop run by government to do things that contractors don't do. Etc. Then of course there was a well resourced TAFE for that side of the training as well.
All up it wasn't flawless but it worked pretty well. As a system it took a huge number of high school leavers who weren't going to uni, gave them a job followed by a qualification and, in practice, often ended up unofficially but in practice also taking on the task of correcting flaws in their upbringing and setting them on a sensible path in life.
and where we disagree, really a matter of perspective:See that’s where I disagree with you, all the value adds including baking bread are adding wealth to the country, it’s just that it is consumed quickly.
Wealth is constantly being produced and consumed. Some things we produce like a hydro dam have very long lives, some things like a loaf of bread have a short life, but they are all contributing to increasing our standard of living.
Google “mercantilism” I think you are falling into that old fashioned idea that, that only trade that increases an arbitrary thing like the amount of gold in the coffers is valuable.
The only true measure of wealth of a nation is how many goods and services it produces, weather it trades that goods and services internationally or consumes them it’s self is irrelevant.
No we don’t have any kids, but I enjoy being an uncle to 4 kids. To be honest I have never felt mature enough to have kids, and now that I am 40 and enjoying the travelling life, I am not sure I will have kids, my wife is younger than me so, never say never I guess, but for now I don’t see it happening.and where we disagree, really a matter of perspective:
whereas you see the US (current as an ecomomic monster (positive) , I look at the trade balance (roughly, there are fine distinctions etc) and see it as a collapsing economy.
It does not mean people can not be happy there but there is a wall ahead.
I see your point of view and it is followed by many, including the helicopter money, high debt etc
but for me, this is actually good on a selfish basis..my RE, shares, etc but a disaster for the country/the future of my kids.
I often wondered if you have children @VC, not as a personal stalking or even a nasty attack, I had to bit pushed to get a child but I think all your positions here and many other would fit nicely in a childless couple, and i can see your points.
Do not feel pushed to answer here or via PM.
ok, let's move on and agree to disagree
True, but to do what?Thing is, unskilled people can be trained.
While true, the TAFE sector in particular has been addressing these needs for as long as it has existed. Private providers are now in this space as well, and lots of people are running up huge educational debts trying to get ahead.Someone who's trying to make ends meet in whatever low end service industry job could indeed be trained to become an operator, tradie or even a white collar professional if given sufficient opportunity both for the training and ongoing employment thereafter.
Again all true. But people entering their trades today have typically completed Year 12, and they don't all live at home and need mere pocket money to survive. Most will either be paying off their first car or about to buy one, and a good number are planning to leave home if they have not already. Apprenticeship wages are barely survivable for today's cohort.If we look at how we used to train tradies (always known as tradesmen back then but that term's deemed sexist today) then there were basically 4 groups. From largest to smallest:
1. Big companies that manufactured, refined or processed something.
2. Utilities especially the state owned electricity authorities.
3. Various other things run by government - the Transport Department, the Housing Commission, public transport fleets, etc.
4. A relatively smaller number trained by private contractors, builders, self-employed tradies with an apprentice, etc.
I'm less familiar with the companies in other states but if you find any group of older tradies in Tasmania and ask them where they did their apprenticeship then the answers will mostly be a list of big business acronyms and things run by government. APPM, Tioxide, ANM, EZ, TEMCO, Comalco, Sheridan, ACI, Incat, Cadbury and so on for the big companies, the Hydro in the next category as an entity unto itself albeit ultimately government owned, and in third category the various state government departments. The remaining 20% would be from the assorted builders, contractors, self-employed tradies and so on.
A key point being they all saw training as something that they needed to be doing and trained far more people than they needed to retain. That's what kept society supplied with tradies who then went to work for themselves or small business.
The profit motive remains and things still need to be done.Part of that was multiple parties working cooperatively to make it work. Apprentices with anything run by government were commonly placed with privately run businesses, typically construction related, for a period to broaden their experience both at their trade and with how private business goes about things. Apprentices from the private sector were likewise commonly sent off to a utility or maintenance workshop run by government to do things that contractors don't do. Etc. Then of course there was a well resourced TAFE for that side of the training as well.
All up it wasn't flawless but it worked pretty well. As a system it took a huge number of high school leavers who weren't going to uni, gave them a job followed by a qualification and, in practice, often ended up unofficially but in practice also taking on the task of correcting flaws in their upbringing and setting them on a sensible path in life.
There's even as societal understanding and political aspect to all that which I see as positive. No apprentice got through in that era without the point being reinforced that business needs to be profitable and government needs things done. Business can't survive if it doesn't make money, government can't survive if the lights go out.
That sums it up well, the rest will follow along, value adding will become cheaper as energy costs come down, but again we will still be in the situation where there will be no skilled workers.View attachment 157244
The question is "what is our plan for leveraging our strengths into Asia?"
For now we can take our minerals export as a given, but it's finite.
We have an agriculture sector that remains overlooked for assistance yet generates over 11% of exports.
We have a renewables energy capacity that beggars belief, but seems to be getting most traction from the private sector... the likes of Twiggy for example. Asia needs energy and fossil fuels are not going to be their saviour. I see an investment now in Australia's renewables export capacity as akin to putting solar on rooftops 15 years ago. The trend is inevitable and the input costs will continue to decrease with scale and technological advances. Musk saw the same with his vision of electric cars, and now Teslas are a many streets ahead of the competition. Australia's situation will be somewhat different, as very few other nations can leverage wind and solar to match us.
The idea of bringing back manufacturing might arise in the future when our energy costs are low enough to offset labour costs. Right now it's about as good an idea as doing a lithography apprenticeship.
Maybe if we value added "energy" to make cheap steel or some other products we could get some traction.That sums it up well, the rest will follow along, value adding will become cheaper as energy costs come down, but again we will still be in the situation where there will be no skilled workers.
IMO it makes a lot of sense to develop the value adding industries as the sector grows, we actually supply about 50% of Teslas lithium not to mention the nickel, cadmium etc, why not have a giga factory here?
Yes moving the product from the raw material stage to the next level of processing, always adds value to the product and as technology improves the requirement for the unskilled labour component falls. So as time moves on Australian based processing should increase.Maybe if we value added "energy" to make cheap steel or some other products we could get some traction.
And maybe there are other sectors where some basic levels of value adding can occur, and would make practical and economic sense.
IMO and I've said it on several occasions, Australia is crazy not to encourage and or demand a battery manufacturing facility is built here.But while the idea of a giga factory sounds nice, how do we compete against a market that makes batteries by the multimillion and lives next door to the production facility it supplies? Also, the R&D essential to battery making, let alone its future focus, does not exist in Australia. Unless we can actually get a company who has these skills to move new production capacity to Australia I personally can't see how we get a foothold.
We in Australia have a market size of less than 1% of that in Asia, so what makes anyone think we should try to compete in terms of manufacturing, unless it's a niche product?
The education system in Australia is an absolute shambles, obviously the loonies have got in charge of the nut house.I have a son going through tafe for electrical and the teachers suck. It is to the point of ridiculousness. 4 teachers so far and they fired the guy that actually knew what he was teaching.
Why? Because he was trying to change the absolute idiotic culture amongst head staff that had developed there. I'm seriously considering looking if there is some kind of legal action that can be taken it is that bad.
A major problem in the trades is that it really takes 7 years and up to 10 to train before someone is fully competent to a high degree.
Also not everyone can be trained. Some guys are just not suited to it for a wide range of reasons.
Problem in Australia is well past wage issues..real estate/ land price and tax,red green tape rates power prices..of course manufacturers have checked Australia and they build factories in Mexico instead.Perhaps advances in robotics will bring the cost of manufacturing down.
I do think as of right now that micro manufacturing might be able to turn a buck as prices are ridiculous.
Seems the entrenched bludgers chase out the talent. My son got on well with the experienced young teacher. It was the older guys that seem to be waiting on retirement causing an absolute toxic learning environment.On a side note my oldest son wants to become a TAFE elect/inst teacher, when he can afford it, he will be great at it he has always enjoyed teacher his siblings, his own kids and when he was at the mines the company paid him to coach the apprentices that worked there. He is just a natural at it, shame he owes so much on his house.
It may be worth contacting the governing body of the TAFE section of Govt.
The logic is there, but what about the market?IMO and I've said it on several occasions, Australia is crazy not to encourage and or demand a battery manufacturing facility is built here.
The argument for not manufacturing vehicle batteries is valid IMO, however IMO there is no excuse for not manufacturing grid connect batteries, they are standard size similar to shipping containers for ease of transport and handling.
With them being like containers the transport cost is basically nullified, by the removal of the need to transport huge amounts of raw materials to make batteries overseas, not all of the material is used in the manufacture of the batteries so therefore that loss is reduced by not transporting the raw material great distances in the first place.
Also the fact that when assembled there is very little wasted space, so shipping costs are reduced, as opposed to transporting something like an E.V where there is a lot of air space that has to be shipped and makes that option very uncompetitive.
There is also the new U.S rules regarding import tariffs on things like batteries, Australia is one of the countries that wont be hit with the 50% tariff, where China is.
So I would think building a giga factory here would actually make a lot of financial sense, as I said there is a perfect location at the old BP oil refinery in Perth, it has a battery grade nickel processing plant on one side and a new lithium hydroxide plant on the other, plus a ship loading facility already there.
I certainly wish someone would do the sums.
The market is the World IMO.The logic is there, but what about the market?
Grid scale battery demand in Australia is presently strong with many projects in the pipeline. However, by the time your idea got up that demand may well have been mostly met, and an overseas market would be needed. This begs the question of how a newcomer would compete against proven technologies already manufacturing at scale.
I'm not suggesting your idea is dead in the water, but if it's going to have legs then I reckon Indonesia and India should be our main targets. Neither of these nations are advanced enough with renewables atm to need grid scale batteries, so there's certainly an opportunity to get in early.
A secondary audience would be the many Pacific islands that we could satisfy with wind/solar/battery energy solutions.
The question is, who will facilitate your idea, let alone do the maths?
I'm not sure that one assertion follows the other.Plus they should be cheaper to build here as the raw material is here.
Well not really, it isn't as though I'm the only one that thinks it makes sense.I'm not sure that one assertion follows the other.
Nothing is cheap to build in Australia, viz. the Kemerton plant in WA.
You have flown over IP as if it simply does not exist.
Neoen, (French) won the contract to build the 100MW Capital Battery, ACT. Doosan Heavy Industries (South Korea) will build it, operate it, maintain it for 20 years.The software developed to operate the battery is owned by Doosan GridTech.
I think your idea makes really good sense SP. If I was looking for a businessman who would run a thoughtful ruler over the idea it would be Twiggy Forrest.The market is the World IMO.
I see your point, but at the end of the day if there isn't a lot of labour content in assembling the grid battery boxes, we should have the advantage of not having to transport the raw materials, so the finished product would be available to be loaded on container ships and send to where ever they are required. Plus they should be cheaper to build here as the raw material is here.
As per Tesla they would be standard pre fabricated sizes reflecting their capacity, so they could be sent anywhere in the world and also it is a product that has a life cycle, so has to be replaced.
Seems like it's a no brainer to me, which being in Australia means it probably wont happen, we will send the raw materials to China and import the batteries, because that's the way we do it now. ?
Meanwhile our kids and grandkids go to uni to become baristas for wealthy Chinese, who own the holiday homes on our East Coast, that our kids and grandkids can't afford.
Ah the clever country, always finding another excuse for taking it up the, but who cares.
Like you said there will be a considerable domestic demand for grid batteries in Australia in the immediate future, that should underpin the feasibility for building the plant and then the export demand would support its expansion.
But guess what we will do fck all and send all the raw materials overseas for $10/ unit value and import back the assembled batteries for $1000/unit value, because we are a smug affluent society that can afford to indulge our smugness.
For the moment. ?
View attachment 157290
Twiggy a man with massive foresight and of course a massive bank balance to pursue his wants.I think your idea makes really good sense SP. If I was looking for a businessman who would run a thoughtful ruler over the idea it would be Twiggy Forrest.
There would be so many synergies with his current projects of massive electrification. He already has precedents of simply buying up companies with the technologies and talents he wants and enclosing them in his public and private companies. Be interesting to see if he has been considering such a move.
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