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BLT - Benitec Biopharma

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Re: BLT - Benitec Limited

I am showing 178.6% profit on my BLT shares now, and I still don't feel ready to sell. Am I being too greedy and will fall on my sword over it, or is this a reasonable reaction?
 
Re: BLT - Benitec Limited

I had similar thoughts a month ago.... I was 99% certain it was going to continue going up:

Takeover possibilities, HIV Trials, Patent approval/closure, etc.

But I didn't sell when I was up. I watched it go down, panicked and then sold at a small profit. Now I'm back in and I've missed a significant movement.

I'd keep holding.... If you get out - get out on a high. Like now!
 
Re: BLT - Benitec Limited

The General Meeting vote was counted and DR. Bremner gets his 50Million shares at 2c. Presumably no takeover attempt is in play as the number of votes counted was small compared to total shares on offer. Also a significant share holder would have been likely to try and stop the Bremner shares release.

What does this mean to us?> Well a takeover is unlikely at this point. The SP has been diluted - some say by 20% in value. Another risk / distraction is out of the way.

What will the SP do?> I'm guessing we'll see some overhead resistance asDr Bremner tries to off load some shares. I fail to see him driving the SP down as it would devalue his holding. I think though that we'll have more trouble with upward swings.

Let's see what the market thinks.
 
Re: BLT - Benitec Limited

I think that Dr Bremner's share allocation was already factored into the share price and it won't affect its current SP, but if he sells of it might. However, he would be congnisant of the effects on the market of any big sale and would be precluded from that by common sense. The shareholders dont' get to see the purchase of shares agreement he entered into with Benitec, although if we asked, maybe they would be obliged to let us see it. Its probably confidential but the terms I would imagine would protect Benitec share price from a sudden big sell of, it only makes sense. Only my opinion.

 
Re: BLT - Benitec Limited

Very minimal volume over the last few days - price slowly dropping away. Be prepared for the City of Hope HIV Trials announcement. This could be a very good time to be accumulating stock. For those with a high risk profile you may want to give it a look at these levels (14.5c).
 
Re: BLT - Benitec Limited

Am, thinking of topping up some of my holdings with some extra money coming my way in next week or so. I can't decide what to top up yet, it could be BLT but then again there is CCE which had a big nosedive this week, maybe its time to accumulate on that one, its bottoming out perhaps now.


 
Re: BLT - Benitec Limited


Hi Vida, i just came across your post...adding to a losing postion is risky, adding to a winning position can be risky too. I hate to see people lose money, please be careful and wait until the price has bottomed or reversed before you add, be patient.

Cheers,
 
Re: BLT - Benitec Limited

thanks for the advice. I will wait, yes its better to wait , although CCE at .069 would have been a good buy yesterday, but I was busy at work when that happened.

Anyway I only intend to put a 'little' more of extra funds towards speculative investments, then will concentrate on the proven big companies with good dividends, they always do best and we dont have to stress over them

Thanks for the note

 
Re: BLT - Benitec Limited

oh damn. Did anyone get freaked out by the market slide today? I am afraid I did, and the first thing I did after logging on to the internet was to place by BLT holdings on sale at market. I just lost it when I saw the news and did not take time to think. Then of course, it all got sold at lowest SP today before I had a chance to think and change my mind. When I did, it was too late. ho hum, but I didn't sell anything else. Its the worst time to make decisions. I made a profit but I had not intended to sell out .. and now its going up again. However I do have a stash of BLTO at .03 cents and maybe I will buy in to BLT again later even if it costs me more, but maybe I will look elsewhere, there are going to be some bargain over the next week or so as volatility hits
 
Re: BLT - Benitec Limited

VIDA - Sorry to hear you exited. I sat tight - actually tried to buy more at the bottom of that bad day but AGAIN I was on holiday when the serious action happened@! In QLD this time. Trading via GPRS on my pda when the NAB platform was going at a snails pace was annoying.

Anyway, I say again, City of Hope announcement re trials cannot be far away. This will have an intense effect on the stock price. I'm sitting tight until that happens.

I've been shorting 50,000 here and there catching 1c movements for an occasional $500 profit. Long term though - given the upside with the IP and the trials about to come on line - this stock in my opinion looks great at 14.5c and is worth holding a fair chunk of it. I'm holding as much as I can without upsetting the missus - 50% of my portfolio at the moment. ....best not to tell her about the ups and downs - apparently it makes it hard to live with me

If you thought the hype price drive was intense when the Phizer deal came out - wait 'till an official HIV/AIDS lymphoma IND announcement goes out.
 
Re: BLT - Benitec Limited

Good for you sitting tight. I should have bought more at .115 rather than sold. When its down one accumulates not sells.. i panicked & forgot.. oh well at least I have some more cash in the bank now And i did make a profit. I will see how it goes next week or so and may buy in again - so you think the IP has a lot of upside? How is the case with Nucleonics going? Have u seen something. I can't locate any current news on it.

 
Re: BLT - Benitec Limited

Trading on holiday? Does that defeat the purpose of a vacation? And 50% of your portfolio is a big endorsement from you. I hope it goes well, and I believe the outcome of the court appeal is due in a few weeks. Hope its good.

 
Re: BLT - Benitec Limited

mmm... if you have faith in Sue's statements regarding the case then this looks pretty strong - BUT -anything can happen. There are no doubt some influencial players trying to push buttons over the decision.

Let's look at a theoretical timeframe here for some ups and downs:

SP @ 14.5c today

SO From now until March 6th (record date) - anyone wanting to get in would see sense in buying on market up until say 16c. I don't see why many people would sell right now as the prospectus should have added some stability as current holders will ride this out with curiosity I would think. Some say record date -3 days is the likely cutoff so that means today.

Now - until end of March - price could go either way but I'm thinking we might now see a base form - BUT - given the new shares are purchased at 10c I'd hazard a guess that we'll see the new base form between 10c and 15c (the two figures in the prospectus). So I'd be surprised if we went below 12.5-13c during March.

26th March - closing date for acceptance of new shares
27th March - Securities to be quoted on a deferred settlement basis
2nd April - Despatch Date for new shares

So in April we could see some profit taking from the 10c share purchases being offloaded.

------

In parallel to all of this we have some other forces:

  • HIV/AIDS lymphoma trials to commence.
  • '099 Patent resolution at US Patent and Trade Mark Office re exam. SEEMS TO BE FINAL CHANCE TO SORT THIS OUT
  • European Patent application appeal.
  • Nucleonics appeal over Delaware District court ruling from 2005.

------

According to another forum there was a submission for the IND (investigatory new drug) on Feb 8th and the approval time is 30 days - putting an announcement somewhere around March 8th-10th regarding commencement of trials. Check out item 0149 on City of Hope site

Speculative statements such as a return to 30-50c could be in order if and when these trials start.

----

'099 Patent decision was anticipated to be say 2months from date of announcement (actual doc was supplied to BLT on 24th Jan I think - as opposed to ASX release of 30th.) So that means we could see a decision by the end of this month - March 2007. Although VIDA's correspondence with the CEO showed that she thought it could be as much as 6 months out - i.e. July 2007.

Final closure on the '099 patent could send the SP intensely either way and there's no way of ignoring that this is going to make it 2c or Blue Sky!

WHY would this go crazy if it closes in their favour? Well apparently (and logic dicates) that the big pharma are all queing up ready to licence IP when this settles. Phizer just took a gamble on how it was going and got in early. Look what that did to the SP. Now ask yourself.. would someone like Phizer take this much of a gamble if they didn't think it was going to work out? Well maybe - as they can afford for it not to work - but I doubt they'd waste their time if they thought BLT wasn't in with a good solid position.
----

The european patent and the Delaware district court deals are incomparably small compared to the USPTO issue so I wouldn't even speculate about these yet.

----

So where does that leave us?

I plan to sit tight and wait for COH announcement in Mid March. If this doesn't happen then I'll get cautious and be less likely to want to put in for the additional shares. If the Patent issue really is to be resolved in the 2 month window stated then that means an announcement has been very smartly lined up with the timing of the close of the share plan (end of this month). This makes it very hard for us to decide whether to go harder with this stock when the USPTO decision is basically expected in the same week! I think BLT have timed this intentionally and it means the market may have a window of a few days to get some headsup before closing on the share plan position.
 
Re: BLT - Benitec Limited

When I sold my Benitec holding, it was Ex Entitlement, so does that mean I get the new issue offer, or do I miss it since it was before record date? I don't quite understand that. If the person who purchased my shares got them without the entitlements, then I must get them, otherwise no one does?

I don't quite understand that, and I am kicking myself this morning for totally forgetting about this opportunity when I suddenly sold out of my shares the other day on learning about the falling market. In fact most of my other shares I just kept, have fallen a bit, while BLT has held up and that's the one I chose to sell. Gosh !!! I tried to cancel the sell order minutes after I placed it, but it was gone. I have now placed a buy order for .10 cents and may increase that depending on market next wk.

I should not believe what I read in the papers. I normally do not panic so easily and I don't know what came over me. It was irrational fear.

Can anyone tell me how a market traded option is exercised ? If one wishes to exercise it and purchase the underlying shares is there a form to complete, what happens? I have never sold or exercised options before.
 
Re: BLT - Benitec Limited

The rights issue record date was today - and on cue it went down to 13c - pretty much like I guessed it would.

Strangely at the end of the day the market depth shifted from an even balance over to more buyers than sellers. Also all 14c and 14.5c sell orders disappeared. Interesting. Normally when we see the sell side drop away this stock gears up and runs 5-10c. Still the sell side would have to thin out quite a lot before that might happen.

Let's see if I'm right about the HIV IND announcement coming out at the end of this week. Fingers crossed. X
 
Re: BLT - Benitec Limited

Buy/sell orders get purged when their time runs out as well, that could explain some of it. There is no way for us to tell how long some have been in line without being executed, I don't think so anyway. I haven't been game enough to buy in again yet. I could have at .13 cents but held off. I think my risk tolerance has worn out a bit for the moment, with the general market slide. If that had not happened I would still be in BTL as strong as ever and may yet take the ride, will see how I feel tomorrow. Is everyone here sure?

 
Re: BLT - Benitec Limited

Am I sure about Benitec? NO. Is it an acceptable risk - marginal!

Moving back up 11.1% yesterday to 15c was very encouraging.

As stated in previous posts I'll ride out my theoretical timeframe up until the end of the month - waiting for the HIV IND. My position will change according to the events towards the end of this month.
 
Re: BLT - Benitec Limited

I am hoping the SP falls a bit or a lot now. Sorry about that but I have a buy order in a lower levels than the current SP.

I don't want to risk too much. My first buy was at .07cents and I wish I had not sold out the other day, but I panicked on the china slide as my focus on BTL was too much, too unbalanced relative to the rest of my portfolio which I am more confident about.

We simply want the SP to go up or down when it suits us, but there are many factors and forces at play. We can only wait and see what happens. Anyway, there are other cheap stocks on the market which have great potential. I am rather glad my focus is off BTL now and I can look at other less risky opportunities.

Its probably not a good thing to buy stocks where confidence in them is so shakey - the neutreonics issue is turning this one into little more than high risk gambling at this point. However, the higher the risk the higher the return.

As Sue the CEO told me in an email, when biotech pays off it really pays off.

Lets see what happens next week, i hope it goes down for a short time so I can re-invest and then I hope it soars of course, which will please us all.

 
Re: BLT - Benitec Limited

well i hope it doesnt fall, ive been holding from jan @ a higher price and would like to make some profit out of this. waiting for next announcement. still learning charting but this is what ihave come up with, bolingers tightening and sp heading towards the upper band, rsi above 50, macd crossed bullish, sp crosses ma50 and has broken out of a continuation wedge (bullish). next week might be interesting.
 

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Re: BLT - Benitec Limited

How reliable are charts? I was hoping it would fall further today than .15 so waited and watched but it rose to .175 which would be good if I had not sold out the other day. Anyway, i am waiting for a good SP to buy into BTL again, but at each low lately, it still doesn't seem worth the risk. But it just may be.
 
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