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BIN - Bingo Industries

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Tech/A
Interesting comments are now on BIN.
Regarding your low target of 75 cents following your quick review, do you still hold this with this morning's price started with 5% hike ?
I have reproduced some snippets here: The comments from Marcus Today and Shaw are some what interesting:

Extract from SHAW and Marcus comments came this morning
Bingo Industries (BIN) (SHAW)

Rating: Buy | Risk: High | Price Target: $2.00

Disappointing 15% Downgrade + 49% Share Price Massacre = Reduced Market Confidence

Event: Now that’s a reaction! BIN announced a very disappointing trading update, with FY19 EBITDA downgraded from original guidance of 15-20% growth ($108m-$112m vs. Shaw $109.1m, FactSet consensus $117.9m) to a flat $92m-$96m range vs. pcp’s $93.7m. We’ve reduced our FY19 earnings by 15%. With a resultant 49% share price dumping today, it is difficult to reduce BIN to a SELL/HOLD but we acknowledge potential further downside risk leading into the ACCC decision re: DADI acquisition on 28 February. Bottom-line is that FY20 remains robust in lieu of the FY19-specific rebase. PT is reduced from $3.40 to $2.00.Next catalyst: 1H19 result on 26-Feb-19 (with more granularity provided for FY19).


shaw Recommendation: Retain BUY after thinking long and hard about this one. This is one we clearly called wrong (clearly under-estimating the pace – and extent – of the resi slowdown’s impact on BIN’s earnings which we erroneously believed to be more resilient). However, a 15% earnings downgrade with resultant share price plunging 49% seems acutely and grossly overdone (FY20 PE rerating from 15x to <10x). Sobering news indeed. We acknowledge that market confidence has been severely dented and the company’s share price is likely to be sidelined over the next few months – augmented by the significant announcement re: ACCC deliberation on DADI due in a fortnight, the risk short-term remains high but beyond this timeframe the operational metrics and underlying business remain attractive with little change to FY20+ performance: double-digit (core) earnings growth (ex-DADI), strong margins and ROE, and attractive sector (infrastructure, recycling, landfills, waste volumes).

Comments from Marcus Today

  • Bingo (BIN) may need a name change after yesterday, to Bingone. A huge fall after a massive profit downgrade. The company was previously guiding to a 15%-20% lift in EBITDA, but now it is going to come in flat on this year. Not a good result. The market had this as a growth stock and had even pencilled in a 35% increase. Hell hath no fury like an analyst who has got it wrong. And they all did. The stock hit an all-time low yesterday and we would expect to see broker downgrades this morning.
  • In contrast, CWY looks like a shining star with a profit rise and a 13% jump in the stock to celebrate. The market will take some time now to get its head around the BIN result and gain confidence that it is a growth stock again. Certainly does not look like one. The headwinds that it faces show no sign of abating. Does seem that there is more competition too in the market. Housing slowing and more players. Not a good recipe. Next key date is 28th February when the ACCC reports back on its proposed takeover of Dial-a Dump.
 
Ann said:
What oscillators do you suggest I avoid for short term trading?
Click to expand...

Depending on how short term
anything under a couple of days is short term to me.
When trading the DAX 20 min is long term! On a 3 min chart.

I would suggest ALL of them.

They are simply a record of averages of past price action.
Regardless of what they are called.

Divergence can be leading on a confirmational basis.
 
Generally a huge move up or down like this will lead to an inside day
next day.

Yes so far it is acting as expected.
Will of course watch.---If I was trading this short Id be looking for
an opportunity on say a 15 min chart.

Im not Im in the middle of tenders!!
 
I would be rather focussing on tenders and seeing a good price if I am a customer for you
 
Miner said:
I would be rather focusing on tenders and seeing a good price if I am a customer for you
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My tenders need be more accurate than my trading!
Here I'm strictly Fundamental!!
Its a jungle out there!
 
tech/a said:
My tenders need be more accurate than my trading!
Here I'm strictly Fundamental!!
Its a jungle out there!
Click to expand...
So in tenders you are like me : Fundamental. Unfortunately, you know my weakness on charts
In all seriousness, good luck and let your tender wins.
 
Hi everyone,

This stock was being shorted heavily not to long ago, and a specific reason for shorting was the businesses reliance on the domestic/commercial construction industry.

It does seem a bit to easy, however put two and two together.

Its a super dangerous stock, to be assuming it can control the decline in construction waste and somehow find revenue in a declining competitive market.

Housing downturn could last another 2 years, potential for long term pain.

https://www.afr.com/business/infras...e-dumping-on-bingo-industries-20181127-h18ek7


tech/a any chance you're tendering for a job in southeast Victoria about 70million?
 
Dial A Dump founder Ian Malouf will hold a 12 per cent stake in the enlarged Bingo, which is raising $425 million at $2.54 a share to help fund the acquisition. He will join the Bingo board.

Mr Malouf and a handful of minority shareholders will be paid $378 million in cash and be issued with $200 million in Bingo shares.

Ouchy

I wonder if they will buy more stock once it all gets approved of course.
 
Good post. Your AFR extract BTW requires membership. But the part report essentially confirms that it is really a bingo now for Bingo Holders on a different direction, however. DNH
 
Returning from airport just checking the market and looks like Bingo has outsmarted all predictions of further fall yesterday and today . DNH but good luck for holders to recover or add up earlier.
 
tech/a said:
Still
Bearish this is normal
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Gees. You have real astuteness , gutt, nerve and confidence. Honestly, that is a quality of a ship captain to be calm against all tides. I am following the grizzly bear
 
Miner said:
Gees. You have real astuteness , gutt, nerve and confidence. Honestly, that is a quality of a ship captain to be calm against all tides. I am following the grizzly bear
Click to expand...
If I wasn’t short I wouldn’t yet be short but looking for opportunity
 
Today had a high of $1.39


Motley Fool reports
https://www.fool.com.au/2019/02/26/...bout-the-bingo-industries-share-price-bounce/

What you need to know about the Bingo Industries share price bounce
Brendon Lau | February 26, 2019

The Bingo Industries Ltd (ASX: BIN) is among the best performing stocks on the S&P/ASX 200 (Index:^AXJO) (ASX:XJO) index after the waste management company posted its half-year results this morning.

The BIN share price jumped 5.2% to $1.35 in morning trade – making it the third best performer on the top 200 index after the Speedcast International Ltd (ASX: SDA) share price and Orocobre Limited (ASX: ORE) share price.

The rally in Bingo’s shares marks a sharp turn in sentiment towards the stock following its shock profit warning just last week.

The stock hasn’t made back all the near 50% plunge in value from the bleak update but at least management is breaking the “downgrades come in threes” curse.

Profit results not rubbish
The bounce in Bingo’s share price reflects relief that there aren’t more skeletons falling out of its closet (at least not yet) and its upbeat outlook for FY20.

But before we get into that, here’s a snapshot of its results for the six months ended December 2018:

  • Net revenue growth up 25.4% to $178.7 million.
  • Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) increased 4.1% to $45.6 million.
  • Operating free cash flow improved by 33% and cash conversion ratio came in at 103%.
  • Margin squeeze from some site being offline for redevelopment, lower margins from Victorian business, rising corporate costs and increase in lower margin material at its post-collections business.
  • Interim dividend held steady at 1.72 cents per share.
Quick return to growth?
While management reiterated its expectations that FY19 full year EBITDA guidance will be flat compared to last year, it stressed that FY20 will be transformational for the group.

“We have a solid forward order book, and we have good visibility of future revenue through our opportunities pipeline. Our aim is to use this runway to continue to diversify our earnings, by securing long-term C&I [commercial and industrial] contracts to provide more annuity-style defensive earnings,” said BINGO’s chief executive Daniel Tartak.

“We expect to see the benefits from the significant capital outlay over the last 12 months on our redevelopment program as our key assets come back online, most notably our recycling and landfill asset at Paton’s Lane and our advanced recycling facility in West Melbourne.”

The company also believes that the introduction of the Queensland levy over the coming months is a positive for BINGO as it plans to increase its prices to offset rising costs.

It appears that BINGO’s profit warning was only a blimp and that it would be quickly returning to growth. Let’s hope for shareholders’ sake we can take management at face value.
 

Getting close ... and quicker than I expected.

Couple of Volume areas around the current price so each way bet in the short term.

 
barney said:
Getting close ... and quicker than I expected.

Couple of Volume areas around the current price so each way bet in the short term.

View attachment 92569
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Good forecasting Barney. So you are not suggesting BIN is on bear phase and Shaw also supporting your view with a price target publised to reach $2. DNH .

 
Miner said:
Good forecasting Barney. So you are not suggesting BIN is on bear phase and Shaw also supporting your view with a price target publised to reach $2. DNH .
Click to expand...

Yeah, I thought the price action of the initial "dump" looked more like accumulation by the heavy hitters. The updated Fin/Report/announcement gives a bit of weight to an initial market over reaction.

Price wise, the current level looks pivotal in the short term ….. neither bullish or bearish for mine.

If it retraces back under $1.30 … not a good look …… Break above $1.42 off to the races
 
barney said:
…… Break above $1.42 off to the races
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A lot of Investors got taken for a ride on this one … The original dump never looked quite "normal" to the point of now looking suspect Well done to anyone buying at the lows though. Currently $1.73
 
Very very interesting.
Gap up on strong volume into approx the center of the Gap
on its very big fall.
I expect this will sort supply out in the next day or so.
Currently off from its high today of $1.85 to now $1.715.

An opportunity for those that want to get out to do so
with a little more $$s. Or hold on?

Personally If this is truly bearish I think this is all pretty
normal with price trading into the gap.
The remaining bears who were caught by surprise will come
out.
I expect the original gap to remain dominant for some time.

Queuing up at round numbers---$1.70!!
 
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