BHP - BHP Group

reece55 · 9 June 2007

Kauri said:
BHP has held up quite well over the last couple of days despite copper and nickel prices/concerns. I wonder how much it has to do with the Bell Potter comments in I think The Herald Sun a couple of days ago, which have been picked up and spread by the major world press players, saying that China will make a move on BHP???

I agree Kauri, BHP has shown incredible strength, which shows how heavily the rest of the market fell within our index over the last couple of days. Every day down was met with strong buying, volume decent too.

However, fairly alarming divergence on most indicators, so personally i'm on the sidelines with BHP at the moment, be that good or bad. In saying that, we are in uncharted territory in the stock at the moment and by my inferior count a wave 5, so it could very well go further.

Cheers

motorway · 10 June 2007

reece55 said:
I agree Kauri, BHP has shown incredible strength, which shows how heavily the rest of the market fell within our index over the last couple of days. Every day down was met with strong buying, volume decent too.

However, fairly alarming divergence on most indicators, so personally i'm on the sidelines with BHP at the moment, be that good or bad. In saying that, we are in uncharted territory in the stock at the moment and by my inferior count a wave 5, so it could very well go further.

Cheers

With a slide in the over all mkt and some sectors esp
I would expect BHP to superficially to have some weakness ..

But I think the comparative relative strength should not be ignored
If We are seeing continuing rotation and accumulation under the cover of mkt weakness... The indicators might well show negative divergences

Weakness being absorbed by canny ? buyers .........

One of the best indications of the future course of a group or a stock is its comparative strength when the rest of the market is weak, or its comparative weakness in a strong market.

James R. Keene used to say: "Watch the stock that shows strong
resistance to pressure when the market is weak, and buy those stocks
for all you are worth."

The reason for this: Someone is trying to buy while the market is
weak. He would not do this unless he has reason to believe that he can sell it later at a higher price. So he takes advantage of the weakness in the rest of the market by holding the bag for all the offerings of other people who are prompted or compelled to sell.

Richard Wyckoff

here is an interesting observation ALL Stock mkt data is padded by noise and subtefuge... I thought of this recently when looking at the issue of padded and unpadded data,, I realized all data is padded in the sense I have stated it..

So here is a chart that removes most of the padding

It shows rotation into BHP ( and a lot of similar stocks )
since early in the year.. and with a nice tight pattern ( demand meeting supply )

also .. last two bars had very good closes on the bar chart..

We get a good day in the index ... We will have a good test of the real story.

motorway

Kauri · 11 June 2007

reece55 said:
I agree Kauri, BHP has shown incredible strength, which shows how heavily the rest of the market fell within our index over the last couple of days. Every day down was met with strong buying, volume decent too.

However, fairly alarming divergence on most indicators, so personally i'm on the sidelines with BHP at the moment, be that good or bad. In saying that, we are in uncharted territory in the stock at the moment and by my inferior count a wave 5, so it could very well go further.

Cheers

Hi reece,
I'm with you on both the count and the chanell, I currently have a possible minor 4th wave forming which if it plays out will lead to a minor 5 of the intermediate 5th.... which possibly will take it back up towards the top chanell/supply line??? If not the shorter-term portion of the last trade has its stop set at B/E and the original and pyramid longer-term trades have a stop set where not too much damage will occur....... Onwards and upwards..
Cheers
Kauri

Kauri · 12 June 2007

Have taken the short-term trade profit at 2R today, now left with the original and pyramid longer-term trades still running...

Kauri · 15 June 2007

Have closed out original and pyramid trades... not because I don't think it will go higher but because I just may be moving house... if the settlement problems go away .. seems that the trading chanell may cap it for a while and lead to an intermediate W2.. if it does I will be watching..

ta2693 · 17 June 2007

A very shocking news I read on Chinese newspaper, A new formed Chinese state
owned fund which is above US$200billion cap is going to invest in BHP and take a decent position. They begin to talk now.
If this news were announced in Australia, how high the price going to be?

http://www.singtaonet.com/chinafin/200706/t20070614_557612.html

Sean K · 19 June 2007

The Aitken's are really ramping BHP and some of the other big commod plays.

1110 [Dow Jones] Strength in iron ore juniors shows iron ore majors cheap, says Southern Cross Equities director Angus Aitken. Notes massive rise in iron ore juniors relative to BHP (BHP.AU) and Rio (RIO.AU) in recent weeks. "They still look cheap given they are the only guys with any real scale and leverage to current prices and within 9 months we can throw Fortescue Metals (FMG.AU) into that mix." Says RIO may be a little ahead of itself on takeover speculation, but BHP headed to A$40 near term. Expects BHP rise to trigger panic buying from locals and further spike to A$50.00. BHP last A$34.47, down 0.6%. RIO down 0.6% at A$99.43. (DWR)

What was Ducati's valuation?

BSD · 19 June 2007

kennas said:
Expects BHP rise to trigger panic buying from locals and further spike to A$50.00. BHP last A$34.47, down 0.6%. RIO down 0.6% at A$99.43. (DWR)

What was Ducati's valuation?

Very wrong

Now what happens if the 'reversion to mean' commodities assumption fails for another three years?

What if long-term copper is $2 and oil $60 ?

Sean K · 19 June 2007

BSD said:
Very wrong

Now what happens if the 'reversion to mean' commodities assumption fails for another three years?

What if long-term copper is $2 and oil $60 ?

So, you're saying it should be valued higher?

I don't think I saw the reasons for his forecast in that statement, but it looked to me like there was a lot of 'puff' in it. A lot of momuntum and bull market fervour he was factoring in that would push these stocks higher.

Maybe my perception is wrong. Maybe he's calculating this on the underestimated BRIC demand over the next 20 years?

I am no analyst, I'm an ex barman and baby oil wrestler, so I'll just keep reading day to day evaluations with interest to try and sort the fluff from the substance. At the moment, I'm confused.

rederob · 19 June 2007

ducati916;108559 6th-January-2007 said:
BSD

That's correct.
You would have been buying at $30+
While I would not consider buying below $12

If BHP in 10yrs is worth $45........who made the better returns?

jog on
d998

While ducati made some interesting points about BHP, he would never make any money from his musings.
BHP could be worth $45 next year.
But as ducati would never have bought it - because it never fitted his valuation model - he won't be sharing in any of the profits.
I've picked up the odd dividend and now am sitting on a paltry 30% profit in 6 months.
I keep wondering where I went wrong.
ducati?

OK2 · 20 June 2007

did he say baby oil wrestler?

i have never quite been able to understand how the worlds largest miner can trade in a range from mid 20's to mid 30's on a continual basis. it would be of no benefit for me to hold these shares because of my minimal financial input but surely they will explode onto RIO's heels some time soon. good dividends, vast resources, quality management and equipment that is unmatched. pls explain if i am missing something as to why BHP stands where it is on the market.................

Fab · 20 June 2007

OK2 said:
did he say baby oil wrestler?

i have never quite been able to understand how the worlds largest miner can trade in a range from mid 20's to mid 30's on a continual basis. it would be of no benefit for me to hold these shares because of my minimal financial input but surely they will explode onto RIO's heels some time soon. good dividends, vast resources, quality management and equipment that is unmatched. pls explain if i am missing something as to why BHP stands where it is on the market.................

I believe one reason for the low Australian valuation is its double listing on the ASX and london stock exchange also it looks like BHP seems to be buying back some of their shares on the London stock exchange. One of the best things that could happen to boost the BHP aussie price is if BHP decided to delist from the london stock exchange which might happen I believe. I have to say that I like BHP very much. Not much downside and a lot of upside in my opinion

zuluwarrior08 · 20 June 2007

Fab said:
I believe one reason for the low Australian valuation is its double listing on the ASX and london stock exchange also it looks like BHP seems to be buying back some of their shares on the London stock exchange. One of the best things that could happen to boost the BHP aussie price is if BHP decided to delist from the london stock exchange which might happen I believe. I have to say that I like BHP very much. Not much downside and a lot of upside in my opinion

Fab Delisting the LSE just a rumour? Did you read it somewhere? if so could you post a reference please? cheers

Kauri · 20 June 2007

What's with the low valuation compared to RIO???? Don't bother with the share price, check out the market cap...

OK2 · 20 June 2007

just added BHP to my portfolio. i could not afford to many shares (could colate them with 3 fingers), a bit like drinking Penfolds Grange. if it goes backwards i can call it my goodwill contribution to an Australian ikon. it is due to go imo, all the majors are coming up to reporting season. should be an adventure.

OK2 · 21 June 2007

BHP almost hit $35 but has dropped back slightly. I may have chosen a good time to buy in, not sure why the price rise, I didn't buy enough shares to influence the stock price. No International news which would provide a lead that I know of.

Sean K · 21 June 2007

OK2 said:
I didn't buy enough shares to influence the stock price.

That's good news OK2! Who are you? The Future Fund?

And yes, baby oil wrestling. That's the type of thing you need on a CV to be a Mod at ASF.

All the best. Warn us out before you attempt to move the sp again, so I can load up the truck! LOL.

OK2 · 21 June 2007

I have alot of heart for big Australia the companies which compete on the World stage and rule. Our ikons remain few and far between.

I also took the liberty of adding the London listed shares and combined them with ours, without been to technical they still added up to a significant amount less than the value of Rio shares. Believe me when I say there is no technical charting of w1 to w5 graphs or tea cup handles in this assumpion, it is simply common sense that the shares are cheap. They still cost a fair bit per share but they are worth more, if that makes sense.

OK2 · 21 June 2007

$35 just taken out, here we come. Not sure what the range will be Friday but all looks good for a happy run.

Forever forget any takeover of BHP, we do all the takeovers.

Kauri · 21 June 2007

OK2 said:
I have alot of heart for big Australia the companies which compete on the World stage and rule. Our ikons remain few and far between.

I also took the liberty of adding the London listed shares and combined them with ours, without been to technical they still added up to a significant amount less than the value of Rio shares. Believe me when I say there is no technical charting of w1 to w5 graphs or tea cup handles in this assumpion, it is simply common sense that the shares are cheap. They still cost a fair bit per share but they are worth more, if that makes sense.

No waves, tea cup handles, or even voodoo here, just pure fundementals.. your speciality... do the sums...

BHP - BHP Group

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