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BGF - Ballarat Goldfields

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markrmau

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I may be chasing shadows here but am interested in this:

On Tuesday, the price of BGF jumped on high volume to 20c, with minimal justification (some stock broker placed a buy on BGF but it wasn't widely reported).

Suddenly large volumes of sell bids appear at 20c (total of 6million or so which NEVER appears on this stock - high is usually 1.5million).

On Wednesday, BGF press release saying increase in gold reserves of 57%. Thats 57% mind you, an increase by over half of the current gold reserve levels, not just some pissy 5% or so.

Price actually falls to 19.5c (19c close was too small volume to worry about).

Now the first suspicion would be that the news leaked and those in the know got in on Tuesday. But then why would these people stack up 6million at 20c? That doesn't make sense. This announcement could easily allow the SP to easily run to 24c or so. The people in the know would be smart enough to let things run for a while.

Options expire Thursday. Could this be larger option players trying to minimise damage from a high BGF price?

I wonder if any of these 20c bids will disappear?
 
Re: Strange price action for BGF

BGFO is a sept 05 option.

Maybe someone wants to load up on these. I can't find any more info on BGFO.
 
Re: Strange price action for BGF

Nice trend for BGF. I personally think a medium term target is 24-25c, based on the previous trading range and the revised gold reserves.

Disclaimer: I am loaded with BGF and BGFO (Sept 05 option excercisable for 15c)
 

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Re: Strange price action for BGF

Hi Markmau,
Nice chart, one cool looking trend channel, 20c looks like a nice support level for BGF, 18c is the next one. I can see now why you are bemused by the slow reaction to the 57% hike in reserves, maybe it was anticipated and people weren't too surprised- have any of the fundamental types here done the maths on what the sp should be? I can't recall any broker reports.

My only concern is that silly people may be just thinking of BGF as just another gold stock and will dump it when the gold price falls, BUT since it's in the ASX 300 now some fund managers would be in it and would know better. Thumbs up for the moment.

Long term chart below shows the blue sky potential after recovery from the capital raising.
 

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Re: Strange price action for BGF

I've heard from an anonymous source that BGF's announcement was known amongst many of the better connected people in the industry several days before the market. I have also been lead to believe by the same source that this stock is being sold down by some of the said people above to pick up more cheap stock.
 
Re: Strange price action for BGF

Looks like BGF, like some Gold stocks at present, is on its way South with the gold price. Maybe it'll settle around 18c.
 
Re: Strange price action for BGF

Well spotted with the extent of the drop - no way I thought it would be that bad.

However the faithfull were rewarded today.
 
Re: Strange price action for BGF

:2twocents

Nice up movement today but I can't see it reaching the previous peaks. I don't think it will drop any further and am more inclined to think that it will range around the current price.

Just my thoughts
 
BGF

Can I suggest people have a look at bgf because:

1. They have made some very good announcements recently: production to start 6 months early, discovered more gold, increase in gold reserves ....

2. The options bgfo always tend to lead movements in bgf up and down. Currently bgfo is at a 1c premium to bgf whereas recently it has been usually a lot less than that. (Close to 0 cents).

3. I suspect the recent / ongoing carnage in the US will push people into gold. Especially when they realise that 90% of their glitzy hedge funds are going to make a loss.

4. It was sold down excessively in the recent carnage.

5. I have an interest in 200,000 shares (LOL).

I believe other gold stocks are good too - BSG, BDG, but don't know much about them.
 
Re: BGF Ballarat Goldfields

I like BGF too but I'm concerned it's got ahead of itsefl, needs to start production, a number of risks still to be overcome, that's the next milestone imo next to more resource upgrades.
My worry with goldstocks is the goldprice, higher this week but will it retrace? I'll post more in the gold thread.
 
Re: BGF

markrmau said:
I have an interest in 200,000 shares.
Click to expand...

Well BGF has served me well since I got in 6 months ago, but it looks like it is getting a bloody nose today. I've dropped my exposure to about 35k shares.

Not that I don't think that this is a 30c+ stock. I just think it might pull back a bit now until production starts.
 
Re: BGF

markrmau said:
Well BGF has served me well since I got in 6 months ago, but it looks like it is getting a bloody nose today. I've dropped my exposure to about 35k shares.

Not that I don't think that this is a 30c+ stock. I just think it might pull back a bit now until production starts.
Click to expand...

It will be interesting to see if the buyer comes in late, this has happened a lot recently.Wouldn't be surprised if it finishes the day where it started, only 0.005 down, had to have a breather at some point.All the signals are good, we will see.I am in the options so my fear is I can get stopped out on any slight retracement, still, can't have it all ways. :xyxthumbs
 
Re: BGF Ballarat Goldfields

got on this baby at .095 and stil riding north great stock with stacks of potential hasnt really set a foot wrong imho it look strong still :D
 
Re: BGF Ballarat Goldfields

Ahhh... If only id bought this puppy in Aug when I tipped it in the comp. Aint illiquidity a pain in the butt! A mate did buy it though- he owes me a beer (or brewery)! What about old mate that got it for 9.5c? Still got it? Thats a three-bagger! This correction doesn't seem to have touched it either.

Disregard what I just said- I want to be able to afford it when free up some cash!
 
Re: BGF Ballarat Goldfields

Still on board and loving it topped up along the way this is going to be huge imo. The chart looks great and certainly primed for its next leg upward. As soon as production starts in december this will rise quicker than in the past.imho they say dont fall in love with stocks well must say its hard not to with this one.
 
Re: BGF Ballarat Goldfields

I now have my eye on this baby....its estimate of 6mill ounces of gold and know to underestimate....market capitalisation of roughly460 mill$$ undiluted and including diluted probably close to $600 mill...that means with its first gold pour and calculated gold at roughly $540 an ounce multiplied by the 6 million ounces estimation =$3.240 billion gross...just wonder what the net profit would be???

Its first pour now seems like a nice buy...anyone have any comments?
 
Re: BGF Ballarat Goldfields

TheAnalyst said:
I now have my eye on this baby....its estimate of 6mill ounces of gold and know to underestimate....market capitalisation of roughly460 mill$$ undiluted and including diluted probably close to $600 mill...that means with its first gold pour and calculated gold at roughly $540 an ounce multiplied by the 6 million ounces estimation =$3.240 billion gross...just wonder what the net profit would be???

Its first pour now seems like a nice buy...anyone have any comments?
Click to expand...

Just checked the last estimates...state that for 100,000 ounces poured the cash cost per ounce is $274/oz and the total cost this includes the non cash expences such as depreciation and amortisation $342/oz

I calcualted the net profit on these assumptions for all 6 mill ounces and it come to at the price per ounce $540 =$1.188 bill on this figure the shares are technically worth just over $1.


The cost per ounce becomes reduced as the fixed cost component remains the same. I donot have a management account variable cost per ounce maybe someone else will know...

Major institutions increasing their stakes as well.
 

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